Chaba Advisories

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TYPHOON WATCH RAISED FOR GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS

#1 Postby Cyclone Runner » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:33 am

Chaba has been upgraded to a Category Typhoon and a Typhoon Watch has been raised for Guam and the Northern Marianas including Rota, Tinian and Saipan. These islands are sandwhiched betweens these 2 increasingly massive storms, Chaba and Aere

Image


Warnings Information, Good Radars and Satellite Images for these islands can be found at:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Both of these storms are now forecast to eventually hit an already water-logged Japan.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

http://www.afap.org/apcedi
http://www.afap.org/
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Last edited by Cyclone Runner on Fri Aug 20, 2004 11:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: TYPHOON WATCH RAISED FOR GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS

#2 Postby TS Zack » Fri Aug 20, 2004 11:21 am

It is Guam's turn!

Good Luck Guam! Take Cover!
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#3 Postby Karebear » Fri Aug 20, 2004 11:41 am

I'm no met, but I really hope it misses Guam. Now I understand why my sister has not answered the phone. She must be preparing again. This is nerve racking. I can't wait til she gets back state side.
How bad would it be if it hits Guam? I know their homes are built for this but it's still quite scary.

Rhonda
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Guam

#4 Postby Cyclone Runner » Fri Aug 20, 2004 7:00 pm

It is looking more and more likely that Chaba will pass north of Guam and score a direct hit on the Northern Marianas, but typhoons in this area are very fickle, so Guam is still battening down.
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#5 Postby Guest » Fri Aug 20, 2004 7:29 pm

Guam is still in the path though, both of those monsters look 500 miles across! Hopefully they don't both hit Japan!
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Guam

#6 Postby Karebear » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:06 pm

Yep, Guam is battening down. Talked with my sis today and she is going through the list of things to be done. She said something about being in a con 3 (?). Whatever that is. But a 4 according to her is hold on to your hat. LOL I'm glad she has a sense of humor about it all. I hope your right Cyclone Runner and it passes north of Guam.
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Guam Placed on Con-3 Alert

#7 Postby Cyclone Runner » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:20 pm

Residents urged to keep eye on storm
Pacific Daily News


Tropical Storm Chaba is continuing to move closer to Guam and the Mariana Islands.

Gov. Felix Camacho placed Guam in Condition of Readiness 3 at 5 p.m. yesterday. Condition 3 means that a storm will produce sustained winds in excess of 39 mph within 48 hours.

Camacho and Homeland Security officials are urging residents to review their storm-preparation plans and to remove debris from their properties.

As of last night, meteorologists expected Chaba's closest approach to Guam to occur Sunday night, when it passes north of Saipan.

But National Weather Service meteorologist Chip Guard said the storm is showing signs of erratic movement and urges residents of Guam and the Mariana Islands to closely monitor the storm. Saipan, Tinian and Aguijan were placed on a typhoon watch around noon yesterday.

As of 7 p.m. yesterday, Chaba, which means "tropical flower" in Thai, was located at 14.7 degrees north and 156.5 degrees east, or about 790 miles east of Guam. The storm system was moving west at 13 mph.

The storm is expected to become a typhoon by this morning. As of last night, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph in its center and was expected to intensify, according to the storm bulletin issued at 8 p.m. yesterday by the weather service.

Government agencies have taken precautionary measures in the event the storm changes its course, said governor's spokeswoman Erica Perez.

Perez said utility agencies and the Department of Public Works are positioning heavy equipment across the island in the event it's needed for emergencies.

Guard urged residents of Guam and in the Marianas to listen closely for weather updates as they make plans for the weekend.

"People need to understand that storms are always changing. They need to pay attention to the latest information and listen for warning updates," Guard said. He said information about weather conditions are updated every six hours -- at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m.

Island officials also are urging residents to be cautious at exposed beaches and reefs.

Plans changed

Already, the anticipated storm has caused one organization to change plans.

The Make-A-Wish Foundation canceled a visit to Guam for 14-year-old Bradley Preston, who was scheduled to arrive on Guam today.

A press release from the foundation said the press conference scheduled for Monday and other foundation activities are canceled until further notice. Make-A-Wish is a non-profit organization that grants wishes to children with life-threatening illnesses.


Originally published Saturday, August 21, 2004


For Good links to Guam News
http://www.guampdn.com/

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator


http://www.afap.org/apcedi
http://www.afap.org/
http://www.birdquest.net/
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Guam's Condition of Readiness Explained

#8 Postby Cyclone Runner » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:24 pm

CONDITIONS OF READINESS

Based on the time DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
(defined as sustained 50 knots or greater)
are possible or expected to reach Guam.


COR 4:
Destructive winds are possible within 72 hours.
   * Note: On Guam, COR 4 is set year-round unless a higher condition is set, due to our location in typhoon alley.

COR 3:
Destructive winds are possible within 48 hours.

COR 2:
Destructive winds are anticipated within 24 hours.

COR 1:
Destructive winds are anticipated within 12 hours or are already occurring.
   * Note: Only emergency vehicles are allowed on the road during COR 1.

http://www.guam.navy.mil/weather/metoc/ ... itions.htm

For Good links to Guam News
http://www.guampdn.com/

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator


http://www.afap.org/apcedi
http://www.afap.org/
http://www.birdquest.net/
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#9 Postby Guest » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:32 pm

hopefully they bear this one out ok.
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Re: Guam

#10 Postby Cyclone Runner » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:33 pm

Karebear wrote:Yep, Guam is battening down. Talked with my sis today and she is going through the list of things to be done. She said something about being in a con 3 (?). Whatever that is. But a 4 according to her is hold on to your hat. LOL I'm glad she has a sense of humor about it all. I hope your right Cyclone Runner and it passes north of Guam.


Karebear, I was able to find an explanation of the "Con" System at
http://www.guam.navy.mil/weather/metoc/ ... itions.htm

I posted it at
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=38013
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#11 Postby Guest » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:33 pm

poor kid :(. Hopefully Guam misses this one though.
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#12 Postby Karebear » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:38 pm

Thanks. I guess if I'm reading it right it is cor 1 that she must have said is the bad one. The phone line was so staticky and we were disconnected twice. Thanks again. I'm learning something here. [/img]
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#13 Postby Guest » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:43 pm

Does anoyone have any info on which one is supposed to end up more intense? Chaba or Aere?
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#14 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 20, 2004 11:14 pm

WOW... :eek:
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#15 Postby Cyclone Runner » Fri Aug 20, 2004 11:29 pm

nikolai wrote:Does anoyone have any info on which one is supposed to end up more intense? Chaba or Aere?


Nikolai,
Aera (west one) is forecasted by the JTWC to be the strongest. They have it on a continual strengthening trend for the next 5 days until it reaches sustained 115kts.

Chaba (east one) is forecasted by JTWC to reach sustained 95 kts in 1-2 days, hold for a day or so, and then decrease.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html
Last edited by Cyclone Runner on Sat Aug 21, 2004 12:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#16 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 21, 2004 12:11 am

pheuph, hopefully Chaba stays weak.
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links for Saipan for TY Chaba...........

#17 Postby Dave C » Sat Aug 21, 2004 9:14 am

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Latest JTWC Warning Brings Chaba over Saipan as Cat 3

#18 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sat Aug 21, 2004 9:20 am

Warning #12 from the JTWC brings Typhoon Chaba over Saipan as a Category 3 Typhoon and then near Iwo Jima as a Category 4 Typhoon. This is a scenario likely to cause much damage to the Northern Marianas although Guam would escape any eyewall damage. However the curve away from Japan is now lessed pronounced setting up a scenario that would setting up a blocking motion for Typhoon Aere and bring Aere straight into Southern Japan possibly as a Category 4.

It is all quite ominous!

Image

Kevin Vang
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http://www.afap.org/apcedi
http://www.afap.org/
http://www.birdquest.net/
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Chaba

#19 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sat Aug 21, 2004 9:31 am

Thanks Dave C

These links will be very useful in the next 24 hours!! This is really an amazing meteorological situation. It is a bit terrifying in terms of the damage which could be wrought by these 2 sibling Typhoons.
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Residents of Guam Prepare for Chaba

#20 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sat Aug 21, 2004 11:19 am

Here is a good story from the Pacific Daily News on Guam's preparations.

Residents get ready
Typhoon to hit closest to Guam tonight


http://www.guampdn.com/news/stories/200 ... 92851.html

By Therese P. Howe
For Pacific Sunday News

Better to be safe than sorry was the philosophy most residents were putting into action yesterday as they prepared for a possible hit from Typhoon Chaba.

The Office of Civil Defense placed Guam in Condition of Readiness 2 at 5 p.m. yesterday. Under that level, damaging winds from the typhoon could hit within 24 hours, said Erica Perez of the Joint Information Center of the Office of Civil Defense.

Typhoon Chaba is expected to make its closest approach to Guam today at 8 p.m. with winds gusting up to 100 mph after midnight tonight, according to National Weather Service officials.

As of 10 p.m. yesterday, Chaba, a name for a tropical flower, was located at 14.1 degrees north and 150.3 degrees east, or about 375 miles east of Guam. The storm system was moving west at 12 mph.

The typhoon had sustained winds of 80 mph and gusts of 100 mph, and winds were expected to intensify, NWS meteorologist Paul Stanko said. According to the forecast, Chaba's closest point of approach would be 183 miles northeast of Guam.

Residents who notice a smaller storm east of Guam needn't worry, Stanko said.

"Typhoon Chaba is getting big and beefy enough to squash that one like a bug," he said.

Those noticing the consistent westerly movement of the storm may be asking when Chaba would ever start moving north.

"That's the million-dollar question," said NWS meteorologist Carl McElroy. "All the forecast models turn it north. It's just a question of timing. If it delays its turn, it'll hit us."

McElroy said Chaba was expected to run into the winds of another storm that just passed the region, which should move Chaba north.

"But if it doesn't get into that path soon, we're gonna get up close and personal with this thing, especially Saipan," McElroy said. "It is scary. Folks really need to pay attention to the forecast."

Weather and Civil Defense officials urged families to review disaster preparation plans. McElroy added residents can expect a heavy amount of rain throughout today.

Residents didn't need the reminder. Canopies were being taken down and shutters were being put up around the island.

Mia Felipe, 34, stocked up on $30 worth of water and canned goods at Pay-Less and filled her car with gas in the morning. The afternoon was devoted to taking out typhoon shutters from storage, cleaning them of the red ants that had taken up residence on them, and putting them up at the Barrigada home she shares with her sister and cousins.

"It's better to be prepared than sorry. We've learned from past experience," Felipe said. "We're still hopeful it won't hit, but we just want to be ready."

Other residents who worked during the day had to prepare for the typhoon in the evening.

Tina Tainatongo and her boyfriend, Mark Jocson, both 29, faced a night of typhoon preparations after their jobs at Nissan in upper Tumon ended at 5 p.m.

"His job right after work is go fill up the gallons for drinking water and extra water for flushing the toilets just in case," said Tainatongo, a sales consultant. "My job is to go to the grocery store and get canned foods, batteries if we need. And we have a generator, so his job is also to get the gas prepared. Then he'll help my brother put up the shutters and take down the canopies and whatever is going to fly."

Despite all the gearing up in preparation, Tainatongo's biggest worry is the water situation.

"Just to get in line to get water, the hassle of having dirty clothes and not being able to flush the toilet and the dishes pile up," she said. "That's the part about the typhoons that I really don't like that all."

Agat residents, meanwhile, already are prepared for water outages since village taps slowed to a trickle since Wednesday.

Rains muddied the waters in Fena Lake, which feeds the Navy Water Treatment Plant, cutting the daily water production, according to Daily News files. Problems with the Navy's power system then forced the water treatment plant to drain reservoirs.

The combination of problems forced the Navy to lower its total water production, which also cut into the amount of water it pumps into the southern region's public water system.

Yesterday, residents in the lower elevations of Agat were getting a trickle out of their taps because the Navy had been providing water at a reduced flow of 500 gallons per minute, said Navy spokeswoman Lt. Arwen Consaul. The typical rate is 8,000 gallons per minute, she said.

Yesterday morning, families were lining up their trucks filled with coolers, 55-gallon drums and other containers to hold water at the Agat community center.

While her 16-year-old son and her husband fished for i'e' along the shore next to the center, Gloria Teruel sat in the back of their pickup truck and washed three loads of laundry by hand.

"They didn't tell us beforehand so we couldn't prepare and fill up our buckets," said Teruel, a 50-year-old lead budget technician for the Navy. "And they don't say when is it coming. It's like we're in limbo."

That condition isn't likely to change, however, because the Navy is still having problems with its water treatment filters and because of the impending storm,Consaul said.

If the weather forecast is promising, then customers can expect water to be turned on, but still at a reduced flow, she said. That decision was expected to be made this morning, she said.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator


http://www.afap.org/apcedi
http://www.afap.org/
http://www.birdquest.net/
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