Chaba Advisories

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Tokyo

#101 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sun Aug 22, 2004 8:12 pm

It is unlikely, but not impossible that the storm would directly hit Tokyo. The Northwest Pacific like the South West Pacific and the North Atlantic have a natural recurvature pattern, due both, in different degrees, to current and atmospheric physics, which most storms follow once they have gained sufficient latitude.

In the case of the Northwest Pacific, the natural recurvature is off the east coast of Japan especially for cyclones coming from Micronesia and Guam. In the case of cyclones coming from Philippines and Taiwan, the recurvature is over Japan and Korea.

In Chaba's case and given its slow motion, I would bet 80% in it taking the classical recurvature route off Japan's East Coast.

The presence of Aere would support this scenario as well, as even though it is weaker and quite far west now, it will still exert a western blocking effect on Chaba.

The main unknown is that when storms go Category 5, they tend to have a mind of their own and can defy classical models easily. In this fickle way, it is something that large storms have in common with smaller Tropical Storms.

But my money is still on a Tokyo miss. The question then becomes how close off the coast will this storm pass and at its huge size, how much rain will an already saturated Japan get.

Would be interested in other views on this!! :)
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#102 Postby hurricanemike » Sun Aug 22, 2004 8:32 pm

170 kt would also be an all time record
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#103 Postby Aslkahuna » Sun Aug 22, 2004 8:33 pm

I agree that the intensity that's forecast at 120 hours is high. For one, it would require that the storm maintain Super intensity beyond 120 hours and secondly 135kt is a pretty stiff intensity for a storm that's at 32N. Would not be surprised if the storm peaked within 24 hours at around 160kt rather than the 170 that's forecast.

Steve
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Derek Ortt

#104 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 22, 2004 8:37 pm

JT is typically well too high with their intensity forecasts at higher latitudes
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#105 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sun Aug 22, 2004 8:44 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:JT is typically well too high with their intensity forecasts at higher latitudes


Do note though, that the locations in which JTWC have peaked the 170 kts sustained winds is still in the Tropics and not that far north. So it wil be interesting to see if it does hit 170 kts.

Does anyone know if the Japan or the USA, does reconaissence of storms in this area? It would be brilliant to get the data out of this storm!!
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#106 Postby hurricanemike » Sun Aug 22, 2004 8:54 pm

USA and Japan do not. JTWC use to when they where based on Guam but the last flight was over 15 yrs ago. I think Taiwan does flights from time to time.
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First News Report out of Tinian after Chaba

#107 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sun Aug 22, 2004 9:15 pm

Chaba wallops Tinian

by Ken Wetmore, KUAM News
Monday, August 23, 2004

While Typhoon Chaba is packing a punch for Guam, it appears it is only a jab compared to the uppercut the island's neighbors to the north are receiving. Mark Mendiola recently moved to Tinian from Guam to teach at Tinian High School and the former Guam resident contacted KUAM News for weather information after he was unable to receive any information about the storm from the radio in his house.

At around 1am Monday Mendiola said he, his wife Jennifer, and their one-year-old baby were all crammed into the bathroom of his home. Mendiola said he felt lucky that unlike many on Tinian, he lives in a concrete home. The high school history teacher said from the bathroom he could hear the wind and rain lashing his home and could hear debris flying through the air.

Mendiola compared Chaba to something between 2002's Typhoon Chata'an and Supertyphoon Pongsona. He said he was very concerned for his neighbors as he believed Tinian residents weren't alerted to the seriousness of the storm until early this afternoon and feared they didn't have adequate time to prepare.

As the storm subsides if telephone communication to remains intact, Mendiola says he will send further information on how Tinian weathered Typhoon Chaba.


Businesses plan to reopen, limited flights scheduled with Guam still in Condition of Readiness "1"

Typhoon Chaba made is closest point of approach to Guam at around 11pm Sunday evening, and Guam continues to get rain and winds throughout Monday morning. The island remains in Condition of Readiness "1" with residents still advised to stay out of Guam's waters and off the streets until further notice.

The commander of U.S. Naval Forces Marianas sent out an advisory this morning to all military personnel, reminding them that the all-clear has yet to be announced, and that personnel were not to attempt venturing to work or to the Naval installation. Nearly than 2,000 island residents sought refuge in the various public schools setup as shelters, and more than 100 expectant mothers checked-in to the Guam Memorial Hospital in the event that adverse conditions cause them to go into labor.

The Guam Premium Outlet Food Court will open as soon as the all clear is declared by the Homeland Security Office/Office of Civil Defense. According to a release GPO is prepared to open its food court this morning at 10am. In addition, California Mart, Wendy's, and Kings will also be open to provide service to those in need of hot food and beverages.

In the meantime all GPO store employees are asked to stay tuned to the radio for more information.

Turning to the legislature, Senator Tina Muna-Barnes announced that all scheduled oversight for the Committee on Community, Culture, Recreation and Public Broadcasting will not be heard today. Also, the Seventh-Day Adventist Clinic in Tumon will remain closed for today but will reopen on Tuesday and operate during its regular business hours, from 7:30am-8pm.

For those traveling, limited flights resume at the Guam International Airport. Continental Micronesia's tentative inbound flight schedule is as follows:

3:00pm - Flight 962 from Narita

3:10pm - Flight 986 from Honolulu

3:35pm - Flight 916 from Fukuoka

3:40pm - Flight 918 from Nagata

3:40pm - Flight 970 from Nagoya

3:40pm - Flight 920 from Okiyama

4:40pm - Flight 990 from Hiroshima

All other inbound and outbound flights are cancelled for today. Please contact your airline for updated flight information.

http://www.kuam.com/


Kevin Vang
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Good Summary Overview of Guam Damage w/ pictures

#108 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sun Aug 22, 2004 9:34 pm

It looks like Chaba stayed far enough North to avoid causing severe damage to Guam. Flooding and destruction of bridges seems to be the biggest problem with general power and water problems normally expected after such storms.

Here are good summary articles from Pacific Daily News

http://www.guampdn.com

Guam remains in Condition 1
Supertyphoon Chaba moving away from islands


Pacific Daily News, news@guampdn.com

Supertyphoon Chaba is moving away from the Marianas.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 1. There are high winds being reported throughout the island, especially in northern villages. Residents are advised to stay indoors, stay off the roadways and stay out of the waters.

It is too soon to determine when the all clear will be given, said Shawn Gumataotao, lead public information officer for the Joint Information Center

At first light today, officials from the Office of Civil Defense and Homeland Security began damage assessments and will continue throughout the day.

Guam Power Authority, Guam Waterworks Authority and Department of Public Works crews have been activated to begin repairs and to clear roadways.

Pocket areas throughout the island are without power, but it is not an islandwide power outage, Gumataotao said. Gumataotao said that all GPA crews have been called in to repair down power lines.

Areas throughout the island are experiencing low to no water pressure. Gumataotao said that water tankers will soon be deployed but where they will be set up has yet to be determined.

He said the only reported flooding so far has been at the Barcinas area in Merizo. There have been no reported mudslides as of early this morning.

Be advised there is a large tree blocking Route 4 in Merizo by Hemlani Apartments and on Route 2A next to the Agat Mobil Station.

There are downed power lines located on Route 10 Mangilao by Santa Teresita Church. Guam Police Department Officers are at the scene directing traffic.

Crews from the Department of Public Works are responding to clear box culverts at Barcinas area in Merizo where flooding has occured.

There is a report of a downed tree blocking Route 26 Carnation Road and Daisy Lane in Dededo.

If you must travel, please take extreme caution and be aware of debris and down power lines and other storm related hazards. If you encounter hazards, contact the emergency operations center at 475-9600.

Chaba made its closest approach to Guam just before 11 p.m. Sunday, packing powerful winds that grounded flights, flooded roads and homes, closed stores and more than 2,000 residents scurrying to seek refuge in typhoon shelters.

As of 7 this morning, the center of Supertyphoon Chaba was located 15.2 degrees north and 144 degrees east, or 130 miles north-northeast of Guam or 110 miles northwest of Rota. Maximum sustained winds are 180 mph with gusts up to 220 mph.

Supertyphoon Chaba is moving west at 17 mph.

Rota, Tinian and Saipan felt the brunt of Chaba damaging winds and torrential rain. Rota had peak winds of 132 mph as of 11 p.m.

Guam experienced a peak wind strength of 61 mph as of 10 p.m. Sunday.

Gov. Felix Camacho declared Guam in a state of emergency Sunday and authorized spending of up to $250,000 for emergency civil defense, public safety and health-care costs.

The island began to flood Sunday afternoon and by the evening were reports of flooding throughout the island, according to the Office of Civil Defense.

Agajan Bridge on Route 4 in Inarajan was impassable, under four feet of water, officials said. Marine Corps Drive near Polaris Point also was flooded, causing treacherous driving conditions.

Meanwhile, 2,005 people sought refuge in the island’s 10 schools-turned-typhoon shelters.

Department of Education spokesman Gerry Cruz said all of the island’s public schools will be closed at least until Tuesday to allow for damage assessments, and some may be forced to stay closed longer, depending on the amount of damage sustained and how quickly the shelters close, he said.

The University of Guam announced there will be no classes today.

All government of Guam agencies are closed until Condition of Readiness 4 has been restored, Gumataotao said.

Civil Defense’s Emergency Operation Center has been working from the Antonio B. Won Pat International Airport because the air conditioners at their offices in Government House in Agana Heights were not working.

Meanwhile, all flights in and out of the airport were grounded yesterday morning and are expected to return to normal this afternoon.

By around 2 p.m. Sunday, Guam Waterworks Authority had shut down the Ugum Water Treatment Plant because of worries that the pumps would clog, said John Pangelinan, GWA response activity coordinator. He said the water reservoir would feed the southern villages dependent on Ugum for a little while, but he urged residents to conserve water.

Pangelinan also said GWA had switched the power source at its wells to generators to reduce the risk of power fluctuations blowing out pumps and engines.

As of last night, Guam Memorial Hospital reported 90 expectant mothers at the hospital.

GMH and the Naval Hospital have announced that all routine appointments and elective surgeries have been canceled today.

The Navy this morning announced that it also remains at Condition of Readiness 1. All military personnel are to remain at their present location. All naval base installation gates remain closed. Naval Hospital Guam will remain opne for emergency cases.

The Navy Exchange, Commissary, all gas stations and mini-marts are closed. All DoDea schools are closed today.

Chaba misses Guam

By Katie Worth
Pacific Daily News; kworth@guampdn.com
Photos by Masako Watanabe/Pacific Daily News/mwatanabe@guampdn.com

Image
Bill Manley, left, of Yona secures his boat near the HagÂtÒa boat basin with the help of his cousin, Rick Mendiola, yesterday afternoon several hours before Typhoon Chaba was expected to make its closest approach to Guam late last night.

Image
Maria Ulloa Elementary School aide Flo Duenas, 50, left, begins her second eight-hour shift yesterday by counting people who went to the school for shelter, including Tetfina Kenit, 23, right, and her daughter Marbelta Umwech, 4, center.

Image
Wet roads: Members of the Guam Fire Department and Guam Police Department officers secure the scene of an accident yesterday on Route 8 in Barrigada. A Chevrolet sport utility vehicle collided with a Mitsubishi Montero, causing the Montero to land on its side. One injured person was treated at Guam Memorial Hospital.

Typhoon Chaba made its closest approach to Guam just before 11 last night, packing powerful winds that grounded flights, flooded roads and homes, closed stores and sent close to 2,000 residents scurrying to seek refuge in typhoon shelters.

As of 11 p.m., the typhoon's center was 85 miles northeast of Guam and 30 miles northeast of Rota, said National Weather Service meteorologist-in-charge Genny Miller. Rota had peak winds of 132 mph as of 11 p.m.

Guam experienced a peak wind strength of 61 mph as of 10 p.m., Miller said.

"Rota is getting really pounded right now," Miller said shortly after 11 last night. She said Chaba will have left the Marianas by this morning.

Gov. Felix Camacho declared Guam in a state of emergency yesterday and authorized spending of up to $250,000 for emergency civil defense, public safety and health-care costs.

The island began to flood yesterday afternoon and by last night there were reports of flooding throughout the island, according to the Office of Civil Defense.

Agajan Bridge on Route 4 in Inarajan was impassable, under four feet of water, officials said. Marine Corps Drive near Polaris Point also was flooded, causing treacherous driving conditions.

Meanwhile, some 1,860 people sought refuge in the island's 10 schools-turned-typhoon shelters. By 8 last night, four of the northern shelters were filled to capacity and new arrivals were being bused to other shelters.

Department of Education spokesman Gerry Cruz said all of the island's public schools will be closed at least until Tuesday to allow for damage assessments, and some may be forced to stay closed longer, depending on the amount of damage sustained and how quickly the shelters close, he said.

The University of Guam announced there will be no classes today.

All government of Guam agencies are closed until Condition of Readiness 4 has been restored, according to Shawn Gumataotao, governor's spokesman and the lead public information officer for Civil Defense's Joint Information Center.

Yesterday, Civil Defense's Emergency Operation Center was working from the Antonio B. Won Pat International Airport because the air conditioners at their offices in Government House in Agana Heights were not working.

Meanwhile, all flights in and out of the airport were grounded yesterday morning and are expected to return to normal today.

By around 2 p.m. yesterday, Guam Waterworks Authority had shut down the Ugum Water Treatment Plant because of worries that the pumps would clog, said John Pangelinan, GWA response activity coordinator. He said the water reservoir would feed the southern villages dependent on Ugum for a little while, but he urged residents to conserve water.

Pangelinan also said GWA had switched the power source at its wells to generators to reduce the risk of power fluctuations blowing out pumps and engines.

Meanwhile, Guam Power Authority reported power outages in the following areas: Wusstig Road, War Dog Cemetery, Micronesia Mall, Summer Palace, Ypao Road, Harmon Industrial Park and Route 4 in the Ipan, Talofofo, area.

Yesterday morning, both Guam Memorial Hospital and the Naval Hospital put out announcements asking all expectant mothers to report to the hospital as soon as possible, as well as very ill patients. As of last night, Guam Memorial Hospital reported 90 expectant mothers at the hospital.

Both hospitals have announced that all routine appointments and elective surgeries have been canceled today.

For those isolated in the south because of flooding, the Department of Public Health and Social Services opened its Southern Regional Community Health Center for any emergencies.

As the storm drew near, residents continued to prepare for the storm.

At Kmart yesterday, even as shopping carts rolled around the parking lot in the wind and workers screwed typhoon shutters around the windows, some residents were purchasing last-minute emergency supplies.

Larron Gandaoli, 24, his wife and daughter were among those still preparing. He said his home was fairly secure.

"We spent some time preparing last night after dinner. ... I just always prepare for the worst," he said. "I'm better prepared than last time, for Tingting. With that one there wasn't even a forewarning. ... Our canopy got pretty bent out of shape."

Elsewhere around the island, people continued to bring their plants and animals inside, put up plywood or shutters over their windows, buy canned food and water and prepare to hunker down for a long night.

One family was found taking showers at Fish Eye Marine Park because they haven't had water in their Piti home since Thursday because of problems with the Navy's water systems. Daniel Bass, 19, said they wanted to take showers before the storm because they knew water was likely to become even more scarce after the storm.

He said he and his family have prepared fairly well for Chaba, but it wasn't really his own well-being he was concerned about.

"I'm not that worried about Guam, I'm more worried because my family is in Rota right now and I hear that it's heading toward them," he said. "My sister, mom, and grandparents are in Rota and my brother's in Tinian. ... It looks like it's going to hit those places up there worse."

Reporter Theresa Merto contributed to this report.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator


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#109 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Aug 22, 2004 11:56 pm

TWC was just calling Chaba Super Typhoon Chabe with winds of 180 mph with gusts to 220 mph!!!! It is expected to strengthen to 195 mph with gusts to 230 mph!!! I pray it turns North away from any othet populated areas, especially Japan!!
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Marianas Governor Reports Extensive Destruction

#110 Postby Cyclone Runner » Mon Aug 23, 2004 1:19 am

It's looking bad in the Marianas for damage, but no loss of life reported yet, so some good news. Here is a short assessment by the Governor.

CNMI=Commonwealth of the Northen Mariana Islands

CNMI sustains major damage from Chaba

by Sabrina Salas Matanane, KUAM News
Monday, August 23, 2004

CNMI Governor Juan Babauta reports extensive damage in Saipan, Tinian and Rota. In an interview with KUAM News today, Governor Babauta said all three islands are completely without power and water. "There is flooding in almost all areas power lines, primary power poles are down," he summarized. "It is very extensive. A lot of the trees are down." The Governor also added, " It's just amazing how many trees are uprooted, especially on the main streets in Saipan."

In Rota, Governor Babauta said he had received reports from Rota's mayor that there is a lot of debris on the main roads and in the villages. The same situation applies in Tinian.

Governor Babauta also said he spoke with Guam Governor Felix Camacho this afternoon. Governor Camacho will be visiting Saipan tomorrow to provide whatever assistance is necessary to help in the CNMI's recovery efforts.


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Typhoon Chaba nearly the size of Australia; Cool Sat Pic!!

#111 Postby Cyclone Runner » Mon Aug 23, 2004 2:09 am

Image


If you set this monster on Australia, it would stretch from Perth to Melbourne. Cyclone Chaba=Godzilla

Image

BTW, a cool Godzilla site is

http://www.godzillatemple.com
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#112 Postby Holly93 » Mon Aug 23, 2004 6:37 am

i understand that thyphoons rotate clockwise, does that allow them to get stronger than hurricanes? (no laughing at a newbie, ya'll)
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#113 Postby Derecho » Mon Aug 23, 2004 6:45 am

Typhoons (the name for tropical systems in the Northwest Pacific) rotate the same way as Atlantic hurricanes, counterclockwise.

In the Southern hemisphere, tropical systems rotate clockwise.

They're known as "tropical cyclones" in the Southern Hemisphere, and in the Northern Indian Ocean as well.


The strongest typhoons and the strongest hurricanes have about the same windspeeds. "Background pressures" (the air pressure around a storm) are lower in the Western Pacific, so Typhoons generally have lower pressures.

There are more really strong Typhoons than strong Hurricanes because the Western Pacific has less shear, and less interfering land, fewer dry air problems, and a larger area of really warm water, than the Atlantic.
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#114 Postby The Dark Knight » Mon Aug 23, 2004 7:08 am

Hmmm..........
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More News from Guam and the Marianas

#115 Postby Cyclone Runner » Mon Aug 23, 2004 7:34 am

The good news is that there have been no reported deaths and only 1 verified serious injury (Saipan). This is likely due to the fact that these guys go through these big storms regularly. The bad news is that the damage to the Marianas is severe to locally catastrophic, so they will have a big clean up underway. Maybe Punta Gorda and Rota could adopt each other as sister cities in memory of August 2004 to support each other in the years ahead. It will not be forgotten in either place. Here are a few more news stories from KUAM.

http://www.kuam.com/

Guam spared from Chaba's wrath, but CNMI not so lucky

While Guam was spared from the brunt of Supertyphoon Chaba, our neighbors to the north weren't so fortunate as Chaba sets its eye on the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. KUAM News spoke with CNMI Governor Juan Babauta for his preliminary damage assessment.

"Well, as you know we received reports from Rota and Tinian and then we're putting together our preliminary assessment report in Saipan there is extensive damage to power, of course the water systems are down because we're they rely on power for the pumps so there is no running water in Rota, Tinian and Saipan all three of the major islands, power is also down especially in Rota," he said.

He continued to say, "Unfortunately we haven't gotten any reports at all early this morning of injuries. There was a reported injury in Saipan late last night of a bicycle either being blown off his bicycle; I don't know what was he was doing out in the middle night he was blown off the street and into an incoming car, and he got it so he was that was the only related typhoon related incident that we received as of last night for the most part there are no injuries."

Governor Babauta also said that Tinian suffered extensive damage to power lines and power poles are down residential areas we're still receiving reports to damages to homes. Rota fared ever worse. "In Rota, about close to 200 seeking shelter and they are still in shelter here in Saipan and Tinian we're seeing close to 900, close to 1000 in shelters and they're still in shelters we're using most of the school facilities as shelters, Saipan and CNMI is still in Condition 1 situation and we will make another declaration by the end of the day when we downgrade it but right now we're still in Typhoon Condition 1."

"Flooding in almost all areas power lines primary power poles, down very extensive and a lot of the trees are down its just amazing how many trees are uprooted especially on the main streets in Saipan, speaking to the mayor of Rota same thing a lot of debris on the main roads and in the villages so primarily a lot of the bigger trees are down all over the place."

Governor Babauta adds that just prior to his conversation with KUAM News, Governor Felix Camacho called him offering Guam's assistance. Governor Camacho along with representatives from a Guam Homeland Security recovery team along with an official from GPA will be heading to Saipan tomorrow to see what assistance the Government of Guam can offer.

GPA says 53% has power following storm
by Marissa Eusebio, KUAM News
Monday, August 23, 2004

As of this morning, Guam Power Authority officials reported that 65% of the utility agency's circuits are operational, meaning that the same amount of the island's power has been restored (to include Navy and Air Force customers). Not counting the military, Guam is 53% restored.

During a briefing with the Joint Information Center, coordinator Shawn Gumataotao said that GPA crews are prioritizing the Guam Memorial Hospital and its medical facilities, as well as the Skilled Nursing Facility in Barrigada heights. "Line crews have been working at the Guam Memorial Hospital," he explained. "As far as schools, we'll make sure we'll have them open in the next few days. The Andersen Air Force Base is the number one priority. Also - major residential and commercial areas are being prioritized."

The villages of Harmon, Tamuning and Dededo were identified as being areas of priority where GPA crews are currently working to restore power. However because of heavy winds, officials said that crews are unable to work as expeditiously. Gumataotao could not estimate how much longer residents would have to wait for their power to be restored.

Kevin Vang
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#116 Postby Cyclone Runner » Mon Aug 23, 2004 7:43 am

Aslkahuna wrote:I agree that the intensity that's forecast at 120 hours is high. For one, it would require that the storm maintain Super intensity beyond 120 hours and secondly 135kt is a pretty stiff intensity for a storm that's at 32N. Would not be surprised if the storm peaked within 24 hours at around 160kt rather than the 170 that's forecast.

Steve


Steve

Brilliant call!! Chaba seems to have peaked at 155 kts within the time frame you set. Congratulations. Both you and Derek Ortt predicted this spot on.

Kevin
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#117 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 23, 2004 8:07 am

Wow look at that thing!

I really like that word,super Typhoon,makes it sound all powerful(and it is!)
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#118 Postby Ola » Mon Aug 23, 2004 9:30 am

Derecho wrote:Typhoons (the name for tropical systems in the Northwest Pacific) rotate the same way as Atlantic hurricanes, counterclockwise.

In the Southern hemisphere, tropical systems rotate clockwise.

They're known as "tropical cyclones" in the Southern Hemisphere, and in the Northern Indian Ocean as well.


The strongest typhoons and the strongest hurricanes have about the same windspeeds. "Background pressures" (the air pressure around a storm) are lower in the Western Pacific, so Typhoons generally have lower pressures.

Throw in there an explanation of why TC almost never form in the south Atlantic.
There are more really strong Typhoons than strong Hurricanes because the Western Pacific has less shear, and less interfering land, fewer dry air problems, and a larger area of really warm water, than the Atlantic.
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#119 Postby PurdueWx80 » Mon Aug 23, 2004 4:23 pm

*bump* awesome satellite image...two typhoons with distinct eyes.
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#120 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 23, 2004 4:24 pm

its amazing how huge those things are.
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