Chaba Advisories

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Eye of Chaba on Radar as Guam goes to CON-1 Alert

#21 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sat Aug 21, 2004 3:57 pm

Eye of Chaba on Radar as Guam goes to CON-1 Alert

The eye of Cyclone Chaba is now visible on the Anderson Airforce Base Radar. It appears to be heading straight for Guam and Rota more south of where the forecast originally had it. This is bad news for Guam. Keep them in your prayers!!

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... pgua.shtml

This morning the Governor has raised the highest alert of Typhoon Condition of Readiness "2" as the storm bears down. However, power has now been lost to most of Guam, Rota and Saipan, and so most of the newslinks are now down, and we will need to wait for a while until more information is available.

For the explanation of the Guam "Con" System
http://www.guam.navy.mil/weather/metoc/ ... itions.htm
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=38013

Kevin Vang
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http://www.afap.org/
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#22 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 21, 2004 3:59 pm

wow that eye is looking pretty impressive as of now. The eye is wide, but of course the storm is also huge.
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#23 Postby mf_dolphin » Sat Aug 21, 2004 4:29 pm

To give a reference, Guam is 32 miles long north to south. That's a pretty good size eye....
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califas

wow.

#24 Postby califas » Sat Aug 21, 2004 4:59 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:To give a reference, Guam is 32 miles long north to south. That's a pretty good size eye....


That is freakin huge and impressive.

Image
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Typhoon Chaba heading towards the island of Saipan.

#25 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sat Aug 21, 2004 5:06 pm

Hey everyone. Got a few links to pass along regarding our typhoon Chaba heading towards Saipan at this time.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/GUAMD.JPG
http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... pgua.shtml

The center of typhoon Chaba was located near latitude 14.4 north, longitude 148.8 east. Movement is towards the west at near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Further strengthening is anticipated with Chaba over the next couple of days. With the track expected to take Chaba near Saipan, the worse of the conditions are likely to be near Saipan with heavy rains and gusty winds further south towards Rota and Guam. Definitely some tough times ahead for the Mariana Islands.

Jim
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#26 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sat Aug 21, 2004 5:09 pm

If you look at the Anderson Airforce Radar, it is moving more towards Rota and Guam, not Saipan, although this Fujiwara effect could still end it up in Saipan.
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#27 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sat Aug 21, 2004 5:12 pm

Chaba looks to be moving to the WSW on radar. Hopefully that motion will keep it in between islands...would be horrible if one side of eyewall was over Guam and the other over Rota. The JTWC takes it to a Super Typhoon (Cat 5) over the next couple of days...and brings it very close to Iwo Jima. Let's hope it recurves before it gets too far west and hits Japan. The other (Aere) will be very close to Taiwan as a Cat 3. The most heavily populated portion of that island is on the northern tip (millions of people in Taipei and many more in adjacent cities, actually it's basically one giant city on the northern tip). Let's hope the track doesn't take it straight into the northern part of the island. If it goes further north it'll head straight into where the Typhoon hit China last week.
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#28 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sat Aug 21, 2004 5:15 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:Chaba looks to be moving to the WSW on radar. Hopefully that motion will keep it in between islands...would be horrible if one side of eyewall was over Guam and the other over Saipan.


I do not think the people of Rota would be happy with your wish since they are in the middle :wink:
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#29 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sat Aug 21, 2004 5:17 pm

Cyclone Runner wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:Chaba looks to be moving to the WSW on radar. Hopefully that motion will keep it in between islands...would be horrible if one side of eyewall was over Guam and the other over Saipan.


I do not think the people of Rota would be happy with your wish since they are in the middle :wink:


I meant to say Rota (edited to say that now). Hopefully it misses all of them..wasn't a wish. Oops. :)
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#30 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 21, 2004 6:08 pm

hopefully only one island gets hit by this one.
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WORST CASE SCENARIO:Chaba Wobbling and Stalling E of Guam

#31 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sat Aug 21, 2004 6:35 pm

From the Anderson Airforce Radar, it looks like the Fujiwara Effect is causing Chaba to wobble and perhaps starting to stall.

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... pgua.shtml

This is a very bad scenario for all the islands from Guam to Saipan including Tinian, Rita and Aguijan as the eye is lying off to the east, and they are all getting strong winds and torrential rains.

Pray that this start moving again and gets out of there, as this would be a disaster for this Cat 3 to stall out ontop of the islands!

Kevin Vang
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Rainband

#32 Postby Rainband » Sat Aug 21, 2004 6:42 pm

Prayers on the way to those Islanders :cry:
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#33 Postby Aslkahuna » Sat Aug 21, 2004 7:20 pm

Eh, I've seen larger typhoons and larger typhoon eyes. Just hope that whoever gets hit doesn't go through what Guam did with STY Pamela in 1976-6 hours of 100kt sustained winds and 18 hours of sustain typhoon force winds. STY Karen in 1962, though, remains Guam's all time worse hit. The JT watch log from that day is interesting to read.

Steve
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#34 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Aug 21, 2004 7:21 pm

Ooh, I hope it really moves a lot or dissipates. Good luck Guam!
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#35 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Aug 21, 2004 7:59 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:STY Karen in 1962, though, remains Guam's all time worse hit. The JT watch log from that day is interesting to read.

Do you have the JT watch log from the day Super Typhoon Karen in 1962?
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Chaba Stalls

#36 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sat Aug 21, 2004 8:10 pm

Not good!!

Chaba is stalling out over the Islands. It has reduced itself to a snail's pace. The rainfall totals over Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan must be horrendous and piling up, and the storm seems to be slowly intensifying. It looks like Aere is blocking Chaba, and Chaba is blocking Aere, and they are in a struggle for meteorlogical control.

This is really bad news!!
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Latest News from Guam

#37 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sat Aug 21, 2004 8:28 pm

Civil Defense urges residents to stay off Guam's streets, off the reef

by Sabrina Salas Matanane, KUAM News
Sunday, August 22, 2004

Guam remains Condition of Readiness "1" in anticipation of Typhoon Chaba, meaning damaging winds could impact the island by 9pm. The Office of Civil Defense is advising all island residents to stay out of Guam's waters and to stay off the streets. The agency ordered all traffic lights to be turned off, and residents are urged to stay indoors.

According to the National Weather Service, Typhoon Chaba is intensifying as it moves towards Rota. A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan and Agrihan. Island residents are urged to monitor the progress of Chaba as uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecasts of the typhoon.

The storm's center was located near 14.0 degrees north latitude and 147.4 degrees east longitude, placing it about 180 miles to the east-northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are 105 miles per hour with gusts up to 125 MPH. Chaba has slowed down over the last 4 hours but is continuing its westward movement to the west-southwest at 10 MPH. This general motion is expected to continue during the next six hours.

With a slow turn to the west-northwest, Chaba could be near or over Rota this evening.

Typhoon force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the storm's center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center.

You are advised to move boats to safe haven. The Office of Civil Defense is encouraging all expectant mothers who have been pregnant for at least 36 weeks and all high-risk expectant mothers who have been pregnant at least seven months to please report to the Guam Memorial Hospital in Tamuning as soon as possible. Only one escort will be allowed to accompany expectant mothers. Scheduled meals will be provided to the expectant mother, however, in between snacks and refreshments will not be provided.

Expectant mothers are advised to bring a pillow, blanket, and other personal items they may need during the typhoon.

The Hospital has also suspended patient visiting hours until further notice, with no more than one watcher per patient allowed. Critically ill patients may also have one watcher to remain in the hospital as ordered by the attending physician.

Meanwhile, Civil Defense has opened the following schools as shelter sites:

Northern Guam
Upi Elementary School

F.B. Leon Guerrero Middle School

Maria Ulloa Elementary School


Central Guam
George Washington High School in Mangilao

Ordot-Chalan Pago Elementary School


Southern Guam
Talofofo Elementary School

Inarajan Middle School


Damaging west winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH will arrive this afternoon, increasing up to 40-50 MPH tonight before subsiding on Monday. Winds may be higher if the expected turn toward the northwest does not materialize and Typhoon Chaba intensifies more rapidly than forecast.

Hazardous surf at 10-12' today will increase to 15'17' feet tonight and Monday. Severe rip currents will occur inside the reefs. 5-7" to of rain with locally higher amounts are likely today through Monday, and as such, a Flood Watch has been issued for the Mariana Islands, meaning flash flooding can be expected. The Flood Watch is expected to remain in effect until 4pm Monday.

The outer rain bands of Typhoon Chaba are beginning to affect the Mariana Islands, which may bring significant rainfall to Guam during the next 24-36 hours. If heavy rainfall occurs it will cause rapid runoff and promote flash flooding. Mudslides are possible in the island's mountainous areas.

Continental Airlines has also modified its flight schedule for Sunday, announcing that Flight #6 to Narita with connection to Houston and Newark is still departing as schedule at 11:55am. All flights scheduled to depart this evening and arrive tomorrow morning are cancelled. Continental Connection flights from Guam to Saipan and Rota canceled for today. Additionally, Flight #1 and Flight #73 scheduled to arrive from Honolulu tonight are also canceled.

Travelers are advised to contact the airlines directly to get the latest updates.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator


http://www.afap.org/apcedi
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#38 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 21, 2004 8:33 pm

now it look like its wobbling nw...
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#39 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sat Aug 21, 2004 8:58 pm

Yes it looks like a slightly NW trend now. Weather Service still calling eye over Rota, but the way it is wobbling it could really end up anyhere from Saipan to Guam. I just wish it would pick up some forward speed and get out of there back into non-populated areas.
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#40 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sat Aug 21, 2004 9:08 pm

It may even get stronger than indicated with the present slow movement and favorable conditons for strengthening. 115 mph is definitely looking conservative in some areas near that core as it crosses the Mariana Islands. It wouldn't shock me to see winds stronger than that as it crosses the Mariana Islands.
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