Chaba Advisories

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Dave C
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#41 Postby Dave C » Sat Aug 21, 2004 9:38 pm

The long-range radar shows a nice round eye, obs in Saipan still just trop. storm force in gusts. Should really start picking up.
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#42 Postby Dave C » Sat Aug 21, 2004 9:41 pm

Just reposting to move my links for Chaba near the top(was getting buried)LOL
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#43 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 21, 2004 9:42 pm

yea, this thing could get stronger quicker, so if anyone is in guam or saipan or around there, be prepared.
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#44 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 21, 2004 9:42 pm

lol yea we need to see how chaba looks, it could intensify too.
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#45 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sat Aug 21, 2004 9:44 pm

New JTWC forecast (from 00z this evening) has it splitting the difference between Guam and Saipan (direct Rota hit) then they take it almost dangerously close to Tokyo. Given that a track forecast that far out (5-day) is prone to several hundred miles of error, they will really have to keep an eye on this storm too. Same goes for Taiwan with Aere.
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#46 Postby Dave C » Sat Aug 21, 2004 9:49 pm

Looks to me to be headind more towards Saipan and Tinian for a direct eye hit. Rota will be bad enough though.
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Latest Official News Confirms Chaba Slowing & Strengthen

#47 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sat Aug 21, 2004 9:58 pm

Typhoon Chaba slows progression, Navy to shut off water at 9pm

by Sabrina Salas Matanane, KUAM News
Sunday, August 22, 2004

According to the National Weather Service, Typhoon Chaba has slowed down and is now moving at 10 miles per hour. Guam remains in Condition of Readiness "1" after having been placed at that level at 9am Sunday, meaning Guam is expected to be impacted by damaging winds by 9pm.

Typhoon Chaba is intensifying and is moving toward Rota and a Typhoon Warning is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan, and Agrihan. Island residents are urged to continue monitoring the storm as uncertainty remains for the formation's track. The center of Typhoon Chaba was located near 14.0 degrees north latitude and 147.4 degrees east longitude, placing it about 180 miles to the east-northeast of Guam.

Maximum sustained winds are 105 miles per hour, with gusts up to 125 miles per hour. With a slow turn to the west-north-west, this could bring Chaba near or over Rota this evening. Typhoon force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center.

For flight schedules from the island's major airlines, all Japan Airlines arrivals and departures will be delayed until Monday morning. According to Continental Airlines, flights from Guam to Saipan and Rota are cancelled for today and Flight 1 and Flight 73 inbound from Honolulu have likewise been cancelled. All Pacific Island Aviation and Freedom Air flights incoming and outgoing have been suspended until further notice.

Travelers are advised to contact the airlines directly to get the latest updates.

For Guam's military installations, the Navy has recommended that all personnel and their family remain in their homes until the all clear has been made from Condition of Readiness "1". All Naval base installation gates will close at 7pm, but the gates at the Naval Hospital in Agana Heights will remain open for emergency cases. The Navy Exchange, the Commissary, all gas stations, and mini-marts closed at noontime today.

All active duty and military dependent pregnant women within in their thirty-eighth week and/or with complicated obstetrics are asked to report to the Naval Hospital immediately. All routine appointments and surgeries are cancelled for tomorrow. Additionally, all DoDea schools will be closed for tomorrow.

Also out of the U.S. Navy, water to the villages of Agat and Santa Rita was turned on today with reduced pressure to allow residents the opportunity to make necessary preparations prior to the potential typhoon. The Navy Water Treatment Plant is still experiencing higher than normal turbidity levels due to recent inclement weather. The water will be shut off at 9 tonight due to the impending storm.

In news from Andersen Air Force Base, according to AAFB public affairs Master Sergeant John Hancock, only mission essential personnel are to report to duty on Monday. Meanwhile, the U.S. Coast Guard is reporting that all commercial vessels have either been secured or have cleared Apra Harbor in anticipation of Typhoon Chaba's passage through the Mariana Islands.

The Office of civil defense is advising all residents to stay out of Guam's waters, and to stay off of Guam's roadways as traffic lights have been turned off. Residents are therefore urged to stay indoors.

Meanwhile, Civil Defense has opened the following schools as shelter sites:

Northern Guam
Upi Elementary School

F.B. Leon Guerrero Middle School

Maria Ulloa Elementary School


Central Guam
George Washington High School in Mangilao

Ordot-Chalan Pago Elementary School


Southern Guam
Talofofo Elementary School

Inarajan Middle School

Damaging west winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH will arrive this afternoon, increasing up to 40-50 MPH tonight before subsiding on Monday. Winds may be higher if the expected turn toward the northwest does not materialize and Typhoon Chaba intensifies more rapidly than forecast.

Residents are advised to bring their own bedding items, dry food, drinking water and necessary infant care items. Cooking will not be allowed in the shelters and alcohol and firearms are strictly off prohibited. Buses are on standby at all village mayor's offices for residents needing transportation assistance to the shelters.

Kevin Vang
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#48 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 21, 2004 9:58 pm

hopefully after guam and all it doesnt get a direct hit on tokyo.
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Flash Flood Warning for Guam's Southern Villages

#49 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sat Aug 21, 2004 11:48 pm

Given the slowing down of Chaba, this is the likely consequence, and flooding will only be exacerbated unless the storm begins to pick up some more speed

Flash Flood Warning issued for southern villages; UOG cancels Monday classes

by Sabrina Salas Matanane, KUAM News
Sunday, August 22, 2004

A Flash Flood Warning is now in effect for the villages of Agat, Santa Rita, Umatac, Malesso and Inarajan, and will remain so until 3pm.

Satellite and Doppler weather radar imagery indicated a large rain band moving toward southern Guam that may bring rainfall rates up to 2" an hour or more. Expect flash flooding to occur in valleys, at the base of mountains, along rivers and streams, along roadways and in low-lying areas. If you live in a low-lying area or in any of those mentioned you are strongly urged to seek higher ground, avoid driving in the warned area and never try to cross a flooded road.

The Department of Public Works is already reporting that three lanes along Route 1 near Polaris Point are impassible because of flooding. Traffic is being re-routed on one lane on northbound Marine Corps Drive and motorists are advised to drive cautiously along all roadways.

Read more about the storm's position and how it affects Guam

Meanwhile the Department of Public Health had opened the Southern Regional Community Health Center to receive critical patients. As well, the Department of Mental Health has activated its Crisis Hotline for those who are experiencing stress and grief reactions to the typhoon. If you need someone to talk to the number is 647-8833.

As for utilities, Guam Power Authority crews are continuing to respond to trouble calls as weather permits, and have been working with the Guam Waterworks Authority to isolate generators at the water pump stations to limit disruption of service.

Additionally, the University of Guam has also announced that all of its classes for Monday have been cancelled.

Kevin Vang
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GUAM'S GOVERNOR DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY

#50 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sun Aug 22, 2004 12:37 am

As the situation deteriorates due to torrential rains, Chaba continues to creep slowly west unleasing 2 inches of rain/hour and flood warnings are raised for the entire island!! The situation on Rota, Tinian and Saipan also deteriorating as the Cat 3 storm unleashes full fury!!

Governor declares state of emergency, northern shelters reach capacity

by Sabrina Salas Matanane, KUAM News
Sunday, August 22, 2004

Governor Felix Camacho has declared a state of emergency, signing an executive order authorizing emergency procurement purchases for civil defense, public safety or health care emergencies up to $250,000. The Governor says that it is important that all necessary resources are in place to respond to the critical emergency needs of our people.

All department and agency heads of the Government of Guam will conduct preliminary damage assessments in conjunction with the Office of Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense and the Bureau of Statistics and Plans as soon as the island is returned in Condition of Readiness "4".

Meanwhile, emergency shelters at F.B. Leon Guerrero Middle School in Yigo and Maria Ulloa Elementary School in Dededo have reached their capacity. Northern residents are now advised to seek shelter at Upi Elementary School in Yigo.

Typhoon Chaba is expected to make its closest point of approach to Guam between late Sunday night and early Monday morning. A Flood Warning is now in effect throughout Guam, after a Flash Flood Warning was previously issued for the southern villages of Agat, Santa Rita, Umatac, Malesso and Inarajan.

Kevin Vang
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Radar/Satellite/Observations, Typhoon Chaba

#51 Postby Huckster » Sun Aug 22, 2004 1:15 am

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God lufode middaneard swa þæt he sealde his ancennedan Sunu, þæt nan ne forwurðe þe on hine gelyfð, ac hæbbe þæt ece lif. - Old English/Anglo-Saxon, John 3:16

Anonymous

#52 Postby Anonymous » Sun Aug 22, 2004 1:22 am

Yikes! :eek:
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#53 Postby Anonymous » Sun Aug 22, 2004 1:32 am

Its amazing to look at that eye and then look at Charley's eye in comparison.
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#54 Postby bahamaswx » Sun Aug 22, 2004 4:41 am

Looks like Rota will see the eye. :o
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#55 Postby Anonymous » Sun Aug 22, 2004 5:43 am

bahamaswx wrote:Looks like Rota will see the eye. :o


Rota not reporting but...

Saipan at this hour

Code: Select all

Wind  from the ENE (070 degrees) at 41 MPH (36 KT) gusting to 67 MPH (58 KT)  Pressure (altimeter)  29.17 in. Hg (987 hPa) 


Tinian

Code: Select all

Wind  from the NE (040 degrees) at 58 MPH (50 KT) gusting to 81 MPH (70 KT)  Pressure (altimeter)  29.15 in. Hg (987 hPa) 


:eek: :eek:
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Rota Being Clobbered by Cat 4 Chaba Eye Wall

#56 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sun Aug 22, 2004 5:44 am

Rota Being Clobbered by Cat 4 Chaba Eye Wall

As correctedly forecasted for the last 6-8 hours, the eye of Typhoon Chaba is now poised to cross Rota in the next few hours as a borderline Ctaegory 4 storm. Rota has been under the eye wall for the last 90 minutes and looks like it will continue to get pounded for another hour. At the rate the storm is moving, it will likely take 2-3 hous or more for the eye to pass over Rota, and then it will get clobbered by the rest of the storm.

Saipan has missed the eyewall, but the Aguijan and the Southern part of Tinian have been on the Eye Wall border.

Guam is next on the track, but unless the storm takes a southerly wobble, which is certainly possible, the eye wall should remain north of Guam.

Flash flood warnings have been posted for all of the above-mentioned islands, and much flooding has been reported as rain totals so far have been 6-12 inches across the region, and Chaba is still crawling at less than 10 km/hour with little or no forecast increase in forward speed.

This is a very bad situation, and flooding now has the potential to be widespread severe to locally catastrophic. Wind damage in eye wall areas especially over Rota is also likely to be severe to locally catastrophic.

We can only wait and see what tomorrow brings. Hopefully Chaba would have moved out of the area, but it is just not moving much. There has only been very general news of damage but nothing confirmable at this stage.

Kevin Vang
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#57 Postby Anonymous » Sun Aug 22, 2004 5:48 am

Did This area see the last storm? I dont watch the WPAC much but saw 2 typhoons east of Guam couple days ago and now on satellite, I see a typhoon west and a another over. the island. :?:
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Question

#58 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sun Aug 22, 2004 5:59 am

Jekyhe32210 wrote:Did This area see the last storm? I dont watch the WPAC much but saw 2 typhoons east of Guam couple days ago and now on satellite, I see a typhoon west and a another over. the island. :?:


No, Jekyhe32210, there has been no double whammy. Aere, the western typhoon, has been blocked and effectively pushed farther west by the larger eastern Typhoon Chaba. When Aere formed, it was already west of Guam and the Northern Marianas, and Chaba blocked any movement east, and the play of the two storms has just been pushing Aere further west.

But believe me, Chaba is shaping up to be bad enough for Guam and the Northern Marianas especially as it is so slow moving!!
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First Official Damage Report from Guam

#59 Postby Cyclone Runner » Sun Aug 22, 2004 6:11 am

Power outages throughout Dededo, Tumon Talofofo; nearly 100 expectant mothers checked-in at GMH

by Sabrina Salas Matanane, KUAM News
Sunday, August 22, 2004

Island residents are bracing for the onset of destructive winds. According to the National Weather Service's 8pm bulletin, the eyewall of Typhoon Chaba is close to reaching the island of Rota. A Typhoon Warning is still in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan and Agrihan.

The center of Typhoon Chaba was plotted about 90 miles to the northeast of Guam, 35 miles to the east-northeast of Rota, 50 miles to the south of Tinian and 55 miles to the south of Saipan.

The Guam Power Authority reports power outages in the following areas: Wusstig Road, GHURA housing, War Dog Cemetery, Micronesia Mall, Summer Palace, the Ypao Road intersection (including Marine Corps Drive northbound), the Harmon Industrial Park, and Route 4 in the Ipan area.

The Guam Memorial Hospital reports that 90 expectant mothers have reported and checked-in, and are being housed in non-critical areas of the health facility. The Department of Public Health reports that the Southern Regional Community Health Center will stay open for any emergencies and a physician and staff member are on standby.

As of 7pm, 1,733 residents were recorded as having sought temporary shelters at public school facilities throughout the island. DOE reports the only school available for temporary shelter in the northern district is at Machanaonao Elementary School in Dededo.

As for school closures, the following schools have cancelled classes for Monday:
All DOE schools

All Catholic Schools

St. Paul Christian School

St. John's School

Guam Adventist Academy

Harvest Christian Academy

The University of Guam

DoDEA


Additionally, Guam Community College spokesperson Cathy Gogue says the trade school is hopeful that classes there will not have to be cancelled tomorrow, and will be making a formal announcement on the status of classes Monday morning through the media.

All Government of Guam agencies will remain closed until Condition of Readiness "4" is declared.

Meanwhile, relentless rains have left a number of roads flooded. According to the Office of Civil Defense, all lanes on Route 1 near Polaris Point in Piti are impassible because of flooding, and traffic is being rerouted on one lane northbound on Marine Corps Drive. The Santa Rita Bridge on Joaquin Perez Drive has collapsed and is closed to traffic. The Department of Public Works is reporting that Agajan Bridge on Route 4 in Inarajan is impassible. All motorists are advised to avoid these areas.

As far as air traffic, all flights arriving and departing Guam today have been cancelled. Early morning flight banks for all airlines are also cancelled. Travelers are advised to call their airline directly for the latest information and schedules.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator


http://www.afap.org/apcedi
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#60 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 22, 2004 6:37 am

some places have alrerady seen over 8 inches off rain,out to sea there has been over 12 inches of rain fallen so far and that seems to be increasing rapidly as well.

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.8 ... pgua.shtml
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