Gaston Advisories

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cycloneye
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T numbers for Gaston=3.0/Frances= 5.0,/98L/TD#8=1.5

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:14 am

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/1145 UTC 31.2N 78.4W T3.0/3.0 07 -- Atlantic Ocean
28/1145 UTC 17.2N 51.5W T5.0/5.0 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/1145 UTC 29.1N 66.8W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean



Folks we have a new tropical storm Gaston officially at 11 AM and also a new TD#8.

Chart of T numbers below

MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS
2 30 KTS 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:26 am, edited 4 times in total.
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#2 Postby Hyperstorm » Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:17 am

Gaston has really organized overnight. I will not be surprised if it attains minimal hurricane intensity, even though the most likely scenario would be of a strong tropical storm. As I said yesterday in another thread, if it stays over water longer than forecast, it could strengthen more and strike further north. NE United States should be monitoring its progress...if the ridge doesn't push it westward before the trough closes in on it...
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#3 Postby ncweatherwizard » Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:47 am

I don't get it--it doesn't say Gaston or Eight anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade Seven at 11am, but I'm not so sure they'll jump on 1.5 numbers to upgrade the other to a depression yet (the only reason they would is its proximity to Bermuda).
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12:00 Models for new Tropical Storm Gaston

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:47 am

HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM SEVEN (AL072004) ON 20040828 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040828 1200 040829 0000 040829 1200 040830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.4N 78.3W 31.7N 79.4W 32.4N 80.5W 33.3N 81.3W
BAMM 31.4N 78.3W 31.7N 79.4W 32.4N 80.4W 33.4N 81.0W
A98E 31.4N 78.3W 31.5N 78.3W 31.6N 78.4W 33.4N 78.6W
LBAR 31.4N 78.3W 31.7N 79.1W 32.5N 79.6W 33.5N 79.8W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS 58KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040830 1200 040831 1200 040901 1200 040902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.5N 81.7W 38.4N 76.7W 43.9N 57.9W 45.3N 27.2W
BAMM 34.6N 81.3W 36.7N 78.6W 38.7N 72.4W 40.5N 60.9W
A98E 34.7N 78.0W 37.4N 75.1W 40.3N 66.1W 46.6N 42.7W
LBAR 34.9N 79.7W 38.6N 76.5W 44.1N 65.1W 50.6N 48.0W
SHIP 65KTS 73KTS 67KTS 58KTS
DSHP 40KTS 33KTS 27KTS 18KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.4N LONCUR = 78.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 31.4N LONM12 = 78.0W DIRM12 = 210DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 31.8N LONM24 = 78.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE =

They start this run at 35kts,40 mph a minimal storm at 11 AM advisory and it is almost not moving.
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#5 Postby Benlanka » Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:49 am

11-12Z T-numbers for Frances are not yet available trough my source.

TD7:
08-28-2004 1145z SAB T3.0/T3.0 45kts 1000 hPa
08-28-2004 1145z TAFB T2.5/T2.5 35kts 1005 hPa
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#6 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:52 am

Interesting.
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#7 Postby vacanechaser » Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:57 am

great job Luis..
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#8 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:04 am

Thanks for the early info.
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#9 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:14 am

Wow, cool. Great job keeping on top of things.
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caneman

Gaston blowing up and organizing!

#10 Postby caneman » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 am

Wouldn't bee surprised to see 60-75 mph at landfall. Still think more West around Georgia and SC coastline.
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#11 Postby lilbump3000 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 am

Latest SSD Dvorak is T3.0/3.0
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#12 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:00 am

It's definitely not impossible given the slow motion and favorable environment that this could be 60-75 mph. A minimal hurricane at least is a possibility with Gaston. The key isthe longer it remains out over the water, the more this has a chance to strengthen.

Jim
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11 AM advisory on TS Gaston

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:37 am

Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 4


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 28, 2004


...Tropical Depression Seven becomes Tropical Storm Gaston...
...Tropical Storm Warning issued...

at 11 am EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the South
Carolina coast from the Savannah River to Little River Inlet.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect elsewhere along the
southeastern U.S. Coast north of Little River Inlet to Surf City
North Carolina...and south of the Savannah River to Fernandina
Beach Florida.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 31.4 north...longitude 78.5 west or about
130 miles southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Gaston is currently drifting westward. A slow motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. This
motion could bring the center of Gaston near the South Carolina
coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. An
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Gaston this afternoon.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles mainly to
the east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal can be expected in the warning
area.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches...with locally higher amounts...
can be expected along the path of Gaston.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...31.4 N... 78.5 W. Movement
toward...drifting westward. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Beven
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#14 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:41 am

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 4

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 28, 2004

Morning visible satellite imagery shows that Tropical Depression
Seven has significantly increased in organization...with a curved
convective band wrapped halfway around the center. Satellite
intensity estimates are 45 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB. The
depression is thus upgraded to Tropical Storm Gaston with 35 kt
winds. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system this afternoon.
The initial motion is a westward drift...270/2. Steering currents
are current weak. However...large-scale models suggest that a
ridge will build over the Atlantic northeast of the storm...
followed by a deep-layer trough moving eastward into the eastern
United States. This combination should allow for a slow
west-northwestward motion...followed in about 36-48 hr by
recurvature to the northeast and then acceleration. Guidance
generally agrees with the direction...although there is some spread
on the speed. The forecast track is a little to the right and a
little faster than the previous forecast during the first 48 hr...
and then somewhat slower thereafter.

An upper-level ridge is over Gaston at this time...and the shear is
light. Thus...steady strengthening is expected until landfall...
with the landfall intensity of 50 kt being a compromise between the
stronger ships and the weaker GFDL. Gaston should weaken after
landfall...then become extratropical over the Atlantic to the east
of the mid-Atlantic states.

The forecast track and wind radii require tropical storm warnings
for the South Carolina coast at this time. Due to the relatively
slow motion during the first 48 hr...there is a potential for heavy
rains along the track of Gaston.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/1500z 31.4n 78.5w 35 kt
12hr VT 29/0000z 31.5n 78.9w 40 kt
24hr VT 29/1200z 32.1n 79.5w 45 kt
36hr VT 30/0000z 32.8n 79.8w 50 kt...inland
48hr VT 30/1200z 33.9n 79.2w 40 kt...inland
72hr VT 31/1200z 36.0n 76.0w 35 kt...inland
96hr VT 01/1200z 40.0n 68.5w 30 kt...over water
120hr VT 02/1200z 42.5n 59.0w 30 kt...extratropical
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:41 am

Probability Map | Wind Map | Coordinates | Computer Models
Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 4


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 28, 2004


Morning visible satellite imagery shows that Tropical Depression
Seven has significantly increased in organization...with a curved
convective band wrapped halfway around the center. Satellite
intensity estimates are 45 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB. The
depression is thus upgraded to Tropical Storm Gaston with 35 kt
winds. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system this afternoon.
The initial motion is a westward drift...270/2. Steering currents
are current weak. However...large-scale models suggest that a
ridge will build over the Atlantic northeast of the storm...
followed by a deep-layer trough moving eastward into the eastern
United States. This combination should allow for a slow
west-northwestward motion...followed in about 36-48 hr by
recurvature to the northeast and then acceleration. Guidance
generally agrees with the direction...although there is some spread
on the speed. The forecast track is a little to the right and a
little faster than the previous forecast during the first 48 hr...
and then somewhat slower thereafter.

An upper-level ridge is over Gaston at this time...and the shear is
light. Thus...steady strengthening is expected until landfall...
with the landfall intensity of 50 kt being a compromise between the
stronger ships and the weaker GFDL. Gaston should weaken after
landfall...then become extratropical over the Atlantic to the east
of the mid-Atlantic states.

The forecast track and wind radii require tropical storm warnings
for the South Carolina coast at this time. Due to the relatively
slow motion during the first 48 hr...there is a potential for heavy
rains along the track of Gaston.

A moderate tropical storm at this point before landfall.
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#16 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:42 am

LOL :lol:
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Derek Ortt

Gaston Forecast #3 more bad news

#17 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:42 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl072004forecast.html


forecast is for the 3rd landfalling cane of the season, and also the 3rd for the carolinas
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#18 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:17 am

Nice job, guys! :lol:
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#19 Postby senorpepr » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:24 am

I'll post the statistical data for G-names and August 27th storms for the past 50 years sometime this evening.

Stay tuned...
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#20 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:26 am

Image


Image

Image
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