Gaston Advisories

[NC George]

On the last radar loop I looked at, it appeared an eyewall has almost completely encircled the eye (at least 300 degrees closed.)

[wjs3]

No expert, but that's one heck of a radar presentation. I'd be surprised if it hasn't strengthened.

Check out the Wilmington radar....clear circ center.

[STORMSURGE]

this shows the obvious effect of the gulf stream, systems can stay in this area and can strengthen while churning the depths of colder water.

[WeatherEmperor]

strenghtening....

<RICKY>

[PurdueWx80]

Gaston is almost assuredly a hurricane now. The latest radar from Charleston shows an eyewall forming on the NW and W side. Some of the buoys off the SC coast have been showing rapid pressure falls on the order of .2"/hr.

[TLHR]

I should be sleeping, but I'm not.

Heavy rain in Charleston, but no storm-force winds, yet.
High tide in Chas Harbor is 7:49 am, a full-moon tide.
Once the winds kick up, flooding will become a serious issue.

[TLHR]

A lot of the convection seems to be West of the eye.
So if Gaston comes ashore to the north of Charleston, well...shoot!

[TLHR]

4:15 am

Whoa!!
Just had a wicked wind gust!!

36 kts gust at IOP.
Winds starting to pick up.

[Stormsfury]

Winds up here in Ladson/Summerville also fairly gusty ... N winds 19 gusts to 27 mph.

SF

[James]

** WTNT42 KNHC 290834 ***
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GASTON IS VERY CLOSE
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z FROM TAFB
AND AFWA WERE 55 KT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE NWS/CHARLESTON RADAR
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL...BUT ONLY A
MODEST WARM SPOT IS APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED
ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60
KT. I SEE NOTHING TO PREVENT GASTON FROM REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE HOURS REMAINING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS 65 KT AT 12 HOURS...GASTON SHOULD ALREADY
BE INLAND BY THAT TIME. I SUSPECT THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WILL
BE A LITTLE HIGHER...PERHAPS AROUND 70 KT.

GASTON HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH AS EXPECTED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW 350/6. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY
NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THE WESTERLIES...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION ALSO SUGGESTS THAT GASTON MAY PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GASTON SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED IN THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 32.5N 79.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 33.5N 79.6W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/0600Z 35.0N 79.4W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 30/1800Z 36.7N 78.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/0600Z 38.5N 75.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0600Z 43.0N 66.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE


$$

[Thunder44]

Is there going to be plane flying into Gaston this morning? There hasn't been one since since last night. I was looking at the schedule they don't have on scheduled to be there until this afternoon, but that time the storm may have already made landfall.

[Aquawind]

I didn't seen anything scheduled for Gaston last time I saw the plan..Everything for Frances today..Frances has stolen the limelight evidently..

[wxman57]

There was recon scheduled for Gaston today (as of yesterday). But with the center moving ashore later this morning, there may not be time to get there before it's inland.

[Derek Ortt]

no excuse for not having a 12z flight. ne of the Frances ones should have been scrapped

[Thunder44]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... ublic.html

[TLHR]

Wind has REALLY picked up here inMt. PLeasant.
The eye is just east of Charleston.
Heavy heavy rain is coming down.
IOP had a wind gust of 40 knots.
Lots of standing water on the ground.

[TLHR]

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... nt%2c%20SC

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/1145 UTC 18.5N 54.3W T5.5/5.5 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean
29/1145 UTC 32.8N 79.5W T4.0/4.0 GASTON -- Atlantic Ocean

Gaston is a minimal hurricane.And that position of Frances is .1 below the 18.6 from 5AM.

[wx247]

Some significant developments there. We should have an update on Gaston in less than an hour.

I do think that if this current movement continues for any length of time that watches need to be hoisted for the northern islands @ 11.

[krisj]

like it. It is worse here in Mt. Pleasant than it was during Charley.
Much much more flooding and more trees blown down.