Gaston Advisories

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#381 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:38 am

It definitely is the center. Maybe the eye was about to pop yet again today (It did so yesterday a couple times). I think this system was a minimal hurricane when it came in, but we'll never know for sure due to the very nice reconaissance aircraft...
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Gaston Landfall SAT shot ...

#382 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:51 am

Appears to exhibit an eye at landfall ...

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#383 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:51 am

A much defined eye here!

I would like to call it: "Hurricane Gaston"

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#384 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:52 am

Hurricane Gaston, there is not question.
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#385 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:55 am

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#386 Postby simplykristi » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:59 am

There was a report near the area of landfall of an 81 MPH wind gust, according to TWC. Gaston could have been a minimal hurricane at landfall.

Kristi
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#387 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:00 am

moncks corner 53 mph
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Gaston #3 SC-NC-VA gone

#388 Postby ncweatherwizard » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:04 am

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... aston.html

Landfall now; carries through South Carolina as a storm, NC as a storm/depression and VA as a depression. Wind, rain, few isolated tornadoes.
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HIRT is in the "eye" of Gaston - Pressure...989mb

#389 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:08 am

...News & Comments Updated: 9:55 AM EDT August 29, 2004...


HIRT IS IN THE EYE OF GASTON- THINGS ARE CALM AND THE PRESSURE IS 989.5 MB
This is an amazing sight to see. We are in the eye of a strong tropical storm as Gaston passes directly over our location. The wind is down to a few miles per hour and the pressure is now 989.5 MB. We saw birds come out of nowhere and fly around in the eye. Apparently our video clips are not working- we will have to figure out what is going on with that. I will have more on everything going on in the tropics near 11am EDT. We are about to move north as the backside of Gaston comes on in.

http://www.hurricanetrack.com
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Derek Ortt

gaston forecast

#390 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:09 am

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#391 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:09 am

Hyperstorm, do you think it is a hurricane?
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#392 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:14 am

There is a chance this will be revised as a hurricane later on, but without much data to prove so, I think they will keep it as a strong tropical storm.

Looking at the satellite images, it definitely appears to be a borderline Cat.1 hurricane. The 989mb pressure would certainly support a hurricane. What's more interesting is that the system looked much better earlier this morning, which could indicate that the pressure was lower than the current 989mb.
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#393 Postby Tempest » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:14 am

Don't know exactly what it is here...but way more than they forcasted! Some of these gusts had to be more than 60 mph, seems every bit as bad as what we got from Floyd.

Hearing branches snap...lights are blinking but I can't believe I still have power at 10:15 am.

The storm seems to be not moving much at all so we'll be stuck in this for quite a while.

More later I have to watch the trees! I am located in Crowfield Plantation, Goose Creek.
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#394 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:18 am

tempest..i am right up 176 from ya in lebanon...
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#395 Postby Tempest » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:26 am

Hold on tight, Hugo Vet! Didn't the local stations say this area would only get 30 to 40 kt winds?

I've had enough excitement for today. Hey Gaston, move it outta here!
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#396 Postby Derecho » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:28 am

Tempest wrote:Don't know exactly what it is here...but way more than they forcasted! Some of these gusts had to be more than 60 mph, seems every bit as bad as what we got from Floyd.



Those gusts are less than NHC forecasted.
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11am Gaston-60 mph winds, Hurricane Warnings downgraded

#397 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:31 am

Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast/Advisory Number 8


Statement as of 15:00Z on August 29, 2004



at 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Warning is changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning north of Edisto Beach South Carolina to
Little River Inlet South Carolina. All other warnings are
discontinued.

Tropical storm center located near 33.2n 79.5w at 29/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the north or 360 degrees at 7 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 992 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt....... 25ne 25se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt....... 50ne 50se 30sw 30nw.
12 ft seas.. 75ne 75se 50sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 33.2n 79.5w at 29/1500z
at 29/1200z center was located near 32.8n 79.6w

forecast valid 30/0000z 34.3n 79.5w...inland
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 30/1200z 35.9n 78.8w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 31/0000z 37.7n 77.2w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 31/1200z 39.8n 74.0w...over water
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 01/1200z 44.5n 64.0w...extratropical
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 02/1200z...absorbed into frontal system

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 33.2n 79.5w

next advisory at 29/2100z

forecaster Pasch
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#398 Postby B-Bear » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:33 am

Wow! 992 pressure. That surprises me.
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#399 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:34 am

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 8

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 29, 2004

Gaston made landfall just west of McClellanville South Carolina
around 14z. WSR-88D velocity data indicated that it was just below
hurricane strength at landfall. The system would very likely have
become a hurricane if it had a few more hours over water. The
storm should steadily weaken now that the center is inland...but it
still has the potential to produce some locally heavy rains and an
isolated tornado.

Initial motion is north at 7 kt. A gradual Bend to the right...with
acceleration...is forecast as Gaston becomes influenced by the flow
to the southeast of a mid-tropospheric trough in the vicinity of
the Great Lakes. By 72 hours Gaston should have lost tropical
characteristics...and it is expected be absorbed by a frontal
system shortly thereafter.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/1500z 33.2n 79.5w 50 kt
12hr VT 30/0000z 34.3n 79.5w 40 kt...inland
24hr VT 30/1200z 35.9n 78.8w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 31/0000z 37.7n 77.2w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/1200z 39.8n 74.0w 30 kt...over water
72hr VT 01/1200z 44.5n 64.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 02/1200z...absorbed into frontal system
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Gaston 11 Am Discussion Made landfall just under hurricane

#400 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:34 am

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 8

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 29, 2004


Gaston made landfall just west of McClellanville South Carolina
around 14z. WSR-88D velocity data indicated that it was just below
hurricane strength at landfall. The system would very likely have
become a hurricane if it had a few more hours over water. The
storm should steadily weaken now that the center is inland...but it
still has the potential to produce some locally heavy rains and an
isolated tornado.


Initial motion is north at 7 kt. A gradual Bend to the right...with
acceleration...is forecast as Gaston becomes influenced by the flow
to the southeast of a mid-tropospheric trough in the vicinity of
the Great Lakes. By 72 hours Gaston should have lost tropical
characteristics...and it is expected be absorbed by a frontal
system shortly thereafter.


Forecaster Pasch


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 29/1500z 33.2n 79.5w 50 kt
12hr VT 30/0000z 34.3n 79.5w 40 kt...inland
24hr VT 30/1200z 35.9n 78.8w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 31/0000z 37.7n 77.2w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/1200z 39.8n 74.0w 30 kt...over water
72hr VT 01/1200z 44.5n 64.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 02/1200z...absorbed into frontal system
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