Gaston Advisories

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Brent
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#401 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:39 am

Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 8

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 29, 2004

...Gaston inland and weakening...

at 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Warning is changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning north of Edisto Beach South Carolina to
Little River Inlet South Carolina. All other warnings are
discontinued.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located inland near latitude 33.2 north...longitude 79.5 west or
about 40 miles northeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Gaston is moving toward the north near 8 mph and a northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected during the next 24 hours.
On this track the center will continue moving over eastern South
Carolina today and over North Carolina later tonight and early
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours as Gaston
continues moving over land.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the
center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb...29.29 inches.

Storm surge flooding along the coast will diminish. Storm surge
flooding of up to 4 feet above normal is still possible near the
heads of rivers in the South Carolina coastal area.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches...with locally higher amounts...
are expected in association with Gaston.

Isolated tornadoes are possible today over northeastern South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...33.2 N... 79.5 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 992 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Pasch
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#402 Postby Pileus » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:40 am

Just told my daughter who is in Mt Pleasant not to venture out but she is
insisting on going to the grocery store across from the Thicket Apts. I've
handed down my crazy appeal to WX and storms to her and now I'm
paying for it. Hell, if I was there I would be doing the same thing LOL
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#403 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:43 am

Land frictional forces reduced some of those gusts ...

10:11 am ... pk wind gust of 60 MPH ... in a very heavy rain squall around the western eyewall ...

SF
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#404 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:45 am

Tempest wrote:Don't know exactly what it is here...but way more than they forcasted! Some of these gusts had to be more than 60 mph, seems every bit as bad as what we got from Floyd.

Hearing branches snap...lights are blinking but I can't believe I still have power at 10:15 am.

The storm seems to be not moving much at all so we'll be stuck in this for quite a while.

More later I have to watch the trees! I am located in Crowfield Plantation, Goose Creek.


You're situated right under the western eyewall flank, and bands continue to refire along that, and yes, you're stuck under that for a while ... estimated wind gusts may have reached as high as 70 mph in some of the most intense bands within that ...

SF
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Charelston GASTON observations

#405 Postby Charleston_eye » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:46 am

Alot more wind than I expected.

I've lost a couple of tree limbs and had mother nature play chess with our out door furniture. Don't worry nothing more than a couple of feet!

Also having roof leaks related to poor flashing AND wind pushing rain into our vents at the apex of our roof, sending rain across half of our attic!

Very impressed. I expected the weak stuff we got from Charley.

Oh well... hoping we don't get another visit in a week from Frances!

Hang in there fellow Carolinians!
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#406 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:49 am

Charleston_eye:

iam about 10 miles from you in lebanon...and the winds are gusting more and more...
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#407 Postby Charleston_eye » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:51 am

Yeah I read that Tempest lives in Crowefield (where I do).

I imagine things are rockin your way as well!

Did you expect all of this?

I surely didn't. I suppose I expected another Charley were we hardly got a breeze!
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#408 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:57 am

Definite eye on IR ..

Image
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#409 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:02 am

Yeah, it's pretty clear that it was a borderline hurricane. However, the latest discussion at 11am doesn't give hints of a post-analysis upgrade.

Just another one in which we don't have direct observations at the time of maximum intensity...
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What's up with this?

#410 Postby Steve Cosby » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:06 am

The non-sterodial muscled one was going off last night on NHC ignoring recon:

At 11 am, Gaston was named with a 1008mb estimated pressure and 40 mph winds. Once the plane got in we found 996 mb and 60 kts. So what do we get on the advisory at 5 pm. An increase of 10 mph to 50 mph, despite a pressure 12 mb lower and observed wind by recon of 60 kts. A hurricane watch is issued. The storm is forecasted to intensify to what the recon has observed, 60kts! So the forecast is now for what we know is happening, after all the recon had 996mb and 60 kts at the surface. 3 hours later, even though it missed the evening news cycle at 5 pm, the watch is changed to a warning, the pressure falls 2 mb, there is no higher observed recon wind, but the wind speed in the advisory is upped to 65 mph.


I guess I don't doubt this really happened but is this for real?

Anybody else notice this? (I haven't read deep enough in the BB to see if somebody else posted about it).
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#411 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:16 am

yea i was expecting it...not concerned with frances, however.
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#412 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:27 am

I definitely expected these conditions last night to impact us today (check my prognostic discussion on my website last night ... and although, I missed the landfall intensity, the impacts are pretty much been spot on ...)

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Forecast.html
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#413 Postby tkdmom » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:01 am

Well, we were supposed to be home to attend my niece's b-day party at 2pm, but fortunately it was cancelled. Does anyone know when it would be safe to consider hitting the roads to head home? Sorry, we're not getting much news up here about it........
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#414 Postby Tempest » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:21 am

The Don Holt bridge is still closed.
It's still raining heavy here in Goose Creek and I wouldn't be on the Interstate unless I had an emergency. We've had a great deal of rain and there's flooding everywhere
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#415 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:34 am

The slow movement of Gaston is aggravating the flooding issue and the winds are VERY SLOW to wind down ... the eyewall is finally beginning to show signs of winding down ... however, a feeder band just outside of the eyewall (Summerville, Ladson, extending to North Charleston) produced very heavy rains, and sustained winds of 42 MPH, gusts to 57 MPH ...

SF
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#416 Postby Tempest » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:57 am

Charleston Eye...I was expecting this - as of midnight last night when I went to bed knowing that it was getting stronger.

BUT I was still a little surprised...

Hamlets. You?
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#417 Postby Pinwheeler » Sun Aug 29, 2004 12:59 pm

I am seeing several observations from South Carolina that say 25 to 35 knots in general. Please tell me that this near hurricane strength storm actually had 50 knot winds or gusts somewhere.
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Left Myrtle Beach @ 4:00 am today

#418 Postby debbiet » Sun Aug 29, 2004 1:15 pm

Just wanted to add my Gaston experience! LOL.This was my vacation week...we had our RV at Ocean Lakes Family Campground in Myrtle Beach, right at the dune line...pretty cool place to be unless you have a tropical storm/hurricane! :eek: Based on earlier reports yesterday our plan was to leave at 6:00 am this morning...but by 2:00 am the wind was slamming into our RV and it was raining like crazy. I haven't seen that much rain since Hurricane Floyd in Virginia...Isabel was the worst, but Floyd dumped the most rain because it moved so slow. Anyway we got our socks washed off but managed to leave MB by 4:00 am. It was HORRIBLE trying to drive, the wind, the rain, wicked thunder & lightning with ponding on the roads. As a paramedic I worked during Isabel and what I saw this morning was defiintely comparable except for the really, really strong winds. It took 1 hour to leave the worst of the weather and 2 hours before we had no rain, near Lumberton, NC. Got a cool pic of the sun rising on one side of the road and a rain band from Gaston on the the other, with an awesome double rainbow! We're home now in VA...whew!
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#419 Postby Derecho » Sun Aug 29, 2004 1:17 pm

Pinwheeler wrote:I am seeing several observations from South Carolina that say 25 to 35 knots in general. Please tell me that this near hurricane strength storm actually had 50 knot winds or gusts somewhere.


The intercept team on one of the barrier islands did get a 70 kt gust....but the max wind area was very, very small.
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Gaston rain and wind was oddly on the WEST side....

#420 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:29 pm

Any reason for that? I know it's usually on the east.
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