Hermine Advisories

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PurdueWx80
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#41 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sun Aug 29, 2004 3:52 pm

Yep...Hermine message coming out as we speak!!
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#42 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Aug 29, 2004 3:54 pm

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TS Hermine....40mph

#43 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Aug 29, 2004 3:55 pm

Tropical Storm Hermine Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 21:00Z on August 29, 2004



tropical storm center located near 32.4n 71.0w at 29/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 9 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1008 mb
Max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt....... 25ne 50se 50sw 0nw.
12 ft seas.. 25ne 50se 50sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 32.4n 71.0w at 29/2100z
at 29/1800z center was located near 32.0n 70.7w

forecast valid 30/0600z 33.5n 72.0w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 30/1800z 35.6n 73.1w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 31/0600z 39.0n 72.0w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 25nw.

Forecast valid 31/1800z...absorbed by Gaston
request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 32.4n 71.0w

next advisory at 30/0300z

forecaster Avila
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HERMINE MAKES IT 10-8!!!

#44 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Sun Aug 29, 2004 3:57 pm

But the score isn't the important thing here. Hermine is headed RIGHT for us! Meaning MORE action right after Gaston! YOU GOTTA LOVE IT :D

EDIT: Or not. Turns out I spoke too soon. I just looked at the track. Dang, what a letdown :(
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Derek Ortt

Hermine forecast #1 out to sea

#45 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 29, 2004 3:57 pm

have had this ready for an hour, just waited for the official upgrade


http://www.nwhhc.com/atl082004forecast.html
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#46 Postby Guest » Sun Aug 29, 2004 4:00 pm

but we have more named systems than the epac (thats what counts :) ). they are only up to Georgette.
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#47 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 29, 2004 4:00 pm

what do you mean? In the Atlantic with Hermine we have had 8 named storms. Where did the 10 come from?

<RICKY>
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#48 Postby wx247 » Sun Aug 29, 2004 4:02 pm

Td's I believe in the Epac make them higher.
Last edited by wx247 on Sun Aug 29, 2004 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#49 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Aug 29, 2004 4:02 pm

The EPAC has had a couple of unnamed tropical depressions :(
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#50 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 29, 2004 4:02 pm

There's only been 8 TD's

and FYI: Hermine will not affect land, OUT TO SEA.
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#51 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Aug 29, 2004 4:11 pm

Things are really picking up. Many named storms will we see this year?
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

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RECON for Hermine?

#52 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 29, 2004 6:02 pm

It may not be a significant storm but I think a RECON should investigate the system to be extra sure to where it's heading and its intensity. The NHC doesn't have a plan to investigate the system but that may change.

OPINIONS?
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Hermine ???

#53 Postby Harbormaster » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:00 pm

Looks like it will be toast in a matter of hours based on the latest sat images.... any thoughts???
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#54 Postby New Englander » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:09 pm

Yeah i noticed that too. Kinda odd...
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#55 Postby Harbormaster » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:11 pm

Aside from the tropics, is that Route 44 project EVER going to be completed???? I notice that you are from the area.
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#56 Postby New Englander » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:13 pm

LOL tell me about.. there is some work finally done though from the kingston to carver area.. and there is part of an overpass in carver where it will connect when they are "finished" :roll:
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#57 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:24 pm

They said they might investigate the area in two days ago's recon plan, but I guess they are confident it will do nothing.
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Tropical Storm Hermine

#58 Postby New Englander » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:04 pm

000
WTNT43 KNHC 300238
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM BOTH
SAB AND AIRFORCE GLOBAL. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 40 KTS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SAME
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST. ALSO...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED AND...BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE
MERGED WITH OR BEEN ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON. THIS MERGER OR ABSORPTION
MEANS THAT NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING WILL BE NECESSARY.
HOWEVER...GALE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 33.2N 71.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 35.1N 71.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 37.9N 71.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 41.2N 70.4W 45 KT...ABSORBED
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Hermine #2 close to Mass. coast into Canadian maratimes

#59 Postby ncweatherwizard » Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:25 am

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... rmine.html

It won't be very strong, but it may maintain tropical storm intensity as it brushes Massachusetts--whether it will be truly tropical or just a gale is really the question...just expect some gustier winds starting along the Cape tomorrow morning.
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#60 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:28 am

Wow, it looks rather pathetic at the moment. It probably peaked at 5, where it had winds of 45 knots.
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