Bonnie Advisories

hurricanefreak1988 · #101 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:07 am

...then by August 13, the Olympics won't be the only thing we're watching :grrr:

#102 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:09 am

hurricanefreak1988 wrote:...then by August 13, the Olympics won't be the only thing we're watching

COMPLETELY AGREE

freeport_texas2005 · #103 Postby **freeport_texas2005** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 12:42 pm

It appears that it will move around the Atlantic high and then get caught by the deep east coast trough developing this weekend. If somehow it misses that connection, then the Gulf may have something to worry about.
Anyone else think the same?

Weatherboy1 · #104 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 12:48 pm

In my opinion, that is the most likely scenario. That assumes a couple of things: 1) The large east coast trough forecast by several models to develop does in fact set up on the east coast 2) 91 heads WNW or NW enough to "meet" that trough. If it gets far enough north of PR or the DR, for instance, in about 4 or 5 days, it would likely connect with the trough and be steered NW, then N and into the open Atlantic.

At this point, though, it's too early to say exactly what will happen. Heck, we don't even have a TD yet -- though I will note that for the first time today, there seems to be a nice ball of convection firing up near the center of this wave. If that convection persists and strengthens, we could have a numbered system by tomorrow.

HouTXmetro · #105 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 12:59 pm

Wow, whats the speed on this thing?

#106 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 1:02 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Wow, whats the speed on this thing?

Earlier today it was at 20-25 mph. It needs to slow down some if it is going to develop anytime soon.

#107 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 1:06 pm

A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands is moving westward near 20 mph. This system continues to show signs of organization...and it has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days.

yoda · #108 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 1:06 pm

It is slowing down and development is expected w/in the next 36 hours.

Also, where did you find that info freeport texas2005? I agree with Eglin AFB... in addition.. HPC is now shying away from East Coast trough in new discussion today.. saying 12z GFS trough is too deep... so a trough may develop, but it may be weak.

Are you sure you don't mean 92L? That will go into the GOM... 91L will NOT!

#109 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 1:13 pm

Interesting ......

Well-defined African easterly wave from 18n20w to 13n21w to 8n21w...moving west 10 to 15 kt. 1012 mb low pressure center along wave near 13n21w. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong showers and thunderstorms within 60 to 90 nm on either side of 16n21w 11n24w 8n29w.

Another well-defined African easterly wave along 44w/45w south of 15n moving west 10 to 15 kt. 1012 mb low pressure center along wave near 11n. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong showers and thunderstorms from 8n to 14n between 42w and 50w. Isolated moderate showers within 30 nm on either side of 8n50w 8n54w.

yoda · #110 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 1:16 pm

Where'd you find out that info Hurakan?

yoda · #111 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 1:18 pm

NM Hurakan, DUH its on NHC!!! :oops:

chadtm80 · #112 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:12 pm

lilbump3000 · #113 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:13 pm

Thats the EPAC storm.

#114 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:13 pm

Ok good that now we can lok more close to it every half an hour when is updated.

Three Blind Mice · #115 Postby **Three Blind Mice** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:14 pm

Had the chance recently to be on a G-V! Those guys that get paid to ride in those are truly lucky.
Can fly at 53,000!!

The guy's plane I was on wants a new one ....a G550....

#116 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:14 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:Thats the EPAC storm.

How do you figure? Check the lat and long.

lilbump3000 · #117 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:14 pm

There it goes. At first that image was the EPAC one.

Aquawind · #118 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:15 pm

Nice..we didn't even have to get Dixie to work this time.. 8-)

#119 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:17 pm

Looks real good and getting banding features already.

yoda · #120 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:18 pm

Hmmm... the future of this storm is interesting. Forseen it out to 5 days have... :lol:

Bonnie Advisories

91l

Yes, that's the "likely" scenario

Floater Over 91L

Who is online