Bonnie Advisories

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#1921 Postby lookout » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:51 pm

rtd2 wrote:what organization it gained during the day is being torn apart and slung everywhere! its raining cats and dogs here(rain from the front!)


Very interesting discussion. Here it is.

** WTNT42 KNHC 120234 ***
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

BONNIE HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL CHANGES DURING THE PAST
6-9 HR. THE TIGHT INNER CORE THAT HAD BEEN PRESENT FOR THE LAST
THREE DAYS COLLAPSED DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN A BAND OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER. SO FAR...THE
EVENING RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT HAS REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1007-1008 MB AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 39 KT. ON
THE OTHER HAND...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB
AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...SUGGESTING THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT
HAVE SAMPLED THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 50 KT...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/10. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY STRAIGHT
FORWARD. BONNIE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTELY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
THE TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE COLLAPSE OF THE CENTRAL CORE AND STEADILY INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS
CLOSING. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS JUST GENERATED A BURST OF
CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS
FLARE-UP COULD REGENERATE A TIGHT CENTER AND BRING BONNIE TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AT
ALL BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL... BONNIE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL. ONE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO KEEP THE
WINDS AT 35 KT DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE DUE TO THE NEAR 35 KT
MOTION.

SINCE BONNIE COULD STILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
THIS WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED IF LATER DATA SHOWS THAT BONNIE
IS NOT RE-INTENSIFYING.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 27.4N 88.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 28.9N 86.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 31.9N 83.6W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 13/1200Z 36.5N 78.5W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 14/0000Z 42.0N 73.5W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 15/0000Z 53.5N 62.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
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#1922 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:52 pm

I know it seems redundant, Knight, but I got called on it once for not pointing that out. :roll:
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#1923 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:00 pm

Looks like 60 mph to me - 30kts FL and 32kts at surface. Yeah, right! Now the NHC is using a satellite estimate for winds vs. actual instruments inside the storm on the recon plane. I just THOUGHT I'd seen it all....

URNT12 KNHC 120213
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0213Z
B. 27 DEG 14 MIN N
88 DEG 32 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1497 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 157 DEG 26 KT
G. 047 DEG 51 NM
H. 1010 MB
I. 17 C/ 1540 M
J. 19 C/ 1541 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/4 NM
P. AF963 0902A BONNIE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 39 KT E QUAD 0131Z.


URNT14 KNHC 120245
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01281 10875 12516 11715 14019
02279 20877 22512 21714 15024
03277 30879 32508 31715 14025
04276 40881 42502 41814 15019
05274 50883 52500 51715 99005
MF278 M0878 MF026
OBS 01 AT 0150Z
OBS 05 AT 0208Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01271 10887 12497 11913 33016
02269 20889 22502 22014 32016
03267 30891 32510 32013 30020
04265 40893 42515 41914 31019
05263 50895 52521 51914 31014
06262 60897 62523 61813 31017
07260 70899 72524 72011 31013
MF268 M0890 MF024
OBS 01 AT 0217Z
OBS 07 AT 0243Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
RMK AF963 0902A BONNIE OB 11
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#1924 Postby MGC » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:10 pm

The NHC just don't want any egg on its face. They have had trouble forecasting its intensity since they made the bogus upgrade to TD. This just goes to show the dificulty in forecasting TC intensity. Hopefully Bonnie will be on her merry way so the real show can start.....MGC
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#1925 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:32 pm

If Bonnie is going to become a hurricane, she'll have to pull her act together and do it quickly. If she does make it, it's gonna be very close. Kind of like Erika last year.

Sheesh, I'm beginning to think Bonnie is bipolar.
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#1926 Postby The Dark Knight » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:41 pm

LOL...
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#1927 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:47 pm

Just in from the hospital in New Orleans:

Bonnie has been diagnosed with a severe case of bipolar disorder. She may flare up and become very angry, which will lead to marked intensification of potentially near hurricane strength, and then may just as rapidly become very depressed, lose her convection, and weaken to nearly a tropical depression.

I thought Claudette was bipolar last year.....at least SHE finally made up her mind how strong she wanted to be though. What's Bonnie's excuse?

-Andrew92
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tropical update 11 PM EDT

#1928 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:39 am

Looking at the latest on Tropical Storm Bonnie shows a rather disorganized storm system tonight with pressure continuing to rise tonight. Latest fix from the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft shows little wind and a pressure of 1010 mb. At 11 PM EDT, a hurricane warning is in effect for the Florida Panhandle from Destin eastward to the mouth of the Suwannee River just in case this thing increases to hurricane strength over the next 12 hours. A tropical storm warning is in effect from the Florida-Alabama Border to Destin, Florida. The tropical storm warning area is also under a hurricane watch at this hour.

At 11 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 27.4 north, longitude 88.4 west or about 260 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. Bonnie is moving toward the northeast at near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue overnight. On this track and speed of motion, this tropical system is expected to make landfall between Destin and Apalachicola area by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have dropped to near 60 mph as of 11 PM EDT. However latest recon information shows winds maybe less than 60 mph. While Bonnie has potential of strengthening overnight, it's sure having a tough time doing so with westerly shear overtop of this system. Bonnie is a lopsided storm with all of the winds and convection to the east of the center of circulation. With the convection not being co located with the center is keeping this system from strengthening and it's possible it might not strengthen anymore as it approaches the coast of northwest Florida.

Minimum central pressure from Tropical Storm Bonnie is now up to 1010 mb or 29.83 inches. Coastal storm surge flooding of 2-5 feet above normal tide levels along with large and battering waves can be expected in the Florida Panhandle along and to the right of the predicted forecast track of this tropical system. Rainfall totals of 6-10 inches is expected with this storm system. This combined with recent heavy rains could cause flooding inland from the coast. Also with the wet ground, combined with heavily forested areas could result in downed trees and powerlines with this system, even if it remains a strong tropical storm. This will mean numerous power outages over a small area across the Florida Panhandle, which will have to keep an eye on over the next couple of days.

If Bonnie wasn't bad enough, we got Hurricane Charley, which is expected to remain a hurricane for the next 36-48 hours. Hurricane Charley is centered about 195 miles east southeast of the Cayman IslandS as of 11 PM EDT and is headed right for the Cayman Islands. Charley is moving towards the west-northwest at near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain at near 75 mph with higher gusts. Conditions aloft combined with warm sea surface temperatures favor strengthening over the next couple of days. Minimum central pressure was 993 mb or 29.32 inches as of 11 PM. However a recent recon fix shows that pressures have dropped to 989 mb.

Looking at the latest watches and warnings, we have hurricane warnings tonight for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A hurricane watch is in effect for the following provinces of western Cuba, Pinar Del Rio, La Habana, Ciudad De La Hanbana, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. This watch will likely be upgraded to a hurricane warning early Thursday morning. A hurricane watch has been extended northward along the west coast of Florida to Anna Maria Island. A hurricane watch is in effect from the Dry Tortugas to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay and from Flamingo northward to Anna Maria Island. A hurricane warning will likly be neccessary in portions of this watch area, mainly from the Keys up to the southwest coast of Florida by Thursday morning.

Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches are possible in the path of this system, hence flooding and mudslides remain a possibility for the island of Jamaica and eventually the Cayman Islands. In the same area, storm surge with large battering waves on top of that will continue to remain a problem through Thursday.

More updates soon.

Jim
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2 AM EDT advisories!!!

#1929 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:02 am

Looking at the latest on Tropical Storm Bonnie shows a rather disorganized storm system tonight with pressure continuing to rise tonight. Latest fix from the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft shows little wind and a pressure of 1010 mb. At 11 PM EDT, a hurricane warning is in effect for the Florida Panhandle from Destin eastward to the mouth of the Suwannee River just in case this thing increases to hurricane strength over the next 12 hours, which is becoming more unlikely. As a result as of the 2 AM EDT advisory, there's word that hurricane warnings maybe downgraded to tropical storm warnings later this morning. A tropical storm warning is in effect from the Florida-Alabama Border to Destin, Florida. The tropical storm warning area is also under a hurricane watch at this hour.

At 2 AM EDT, the center of weakening Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 27.7 north, longitude 88.2 west or about 240 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. Bonnie is moving toward the northeast at near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue overnight. On this track and speed of motion, this tropical system is expected to make landfall between Destin and Apalachicola area by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have dropped to near 50 mph as of 2 AM EDT due to the fact recon information shows winds at less than 60 mph. While Bonnie has potential of strengthening overnight, it's sure having a tough time doing so with westerly shear overtop of this system. Bonnie is a lopsided storm with all of the winds and convection to the east of the center of circulation. With the convection not being co located with the center is keeping this system from strengthening and it's possible it might not strengthen anymore as it approaches the coast of northwest Florida. As a result Bonnie may remain a tropical storm through it's landfall later this morning. That means hurricane warnings may need to be changed

Minimum central pressure from Tropical Storm Bonnie is now up to 1010 mb or 29.83 inches. Coastal storm surge flooding of 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along with large and battering waves can be expected in the Florida Panhandle along and to the right of the predicted forecast track of this tropical system. Rainfall totals of 6-10 inches is expected with this storm system. This combined with recent heavy rains could cause flooding inland from the coast. Also with the wet ground, combined with heavily forested areas could result in downed trees and powerlines with this system, even if it remains a strong tropical storm. This will mean numerous power outages over a small area across the Florida Panhandle, which will have to keep an eye on over the next couple of days.

If Bonnie wasn't bad enough, we got Hurricane Charley, which is expected to remain a hurricane for the next 36-48 hours. Hurricane Charley is centered about 165 miles east southeast of the Cayman IslandS as of 2 AM EDT and is headed right for the Cayman Islands. Charley is moving towards the west-northwest at near 15 mph. A turn towards the northwest is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 85 mph with higher gusts. Conditions aloft combined with warm sea surface temperatures favor further strengthening over the next couple of days. Minimum central pressure from a recent recon fix shows have dropped to 989 mb or 29.20 inches.

Looking at the latest watches and warnings, we have hurricane warnings tonight for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A hurricane watch is in effect for the following provinces of western Cuba, Pinar Del Rio, La Habana, Ciudad De La Hanbana, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. This watch will likely be upgraded to a hurricane warning early Thursday morning. A hurricane watch has been extended northward along the west coast of Florida to Anna Maria Island. A hurricane watch is in effect from the Dry Tortugas to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay and from Flamingo northward to Anna Maria Island. A hurricane warning will likly be neccessary in portions of this watch area, mainly from the Keys up to the southwest coast of Florida by Thursday morning.

Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches are possible in the path of this system, hence flooding and mudslides remain a possibility for the island of Jamaica and eventually the Cayman Islands. In the same area, storm surge with large battering waves on top of that will continue to remain a problem through Thursday.

More updates later this morning.

Jim
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New Bonnie VORTEX...still garbage.....

#1930 Postby Derecho » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:10 am

931
URNT12 KNHC 120526
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0526Z
B. 27 DEG 43 MIN N
88 DEG 13 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1496 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 284 DEG 22 KT
G. 217 DEG 49 NM
H. 1010 MB
I. 19 C/ 1516 M
J. 19 C/ 1518 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 /8
O. 0.1/ 5 NM
P. AF963 0902A BONNIE OB 18
MAX FL WIND 39 KT E QUAD 0131Z.




Looking at sat (you have to use IR2, NOT IR4) I think people are a bit misled by the convection; shear is actually increasing over Bonnie, circ is exposed on the NW side. The convection is being sheared off to the East and also creating an illusion of a turn more to the E.
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#1931 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:17 am

At this point, I think she'll make landfall around 45-50 mph. Her chances (if any) of reaching hurricane status are now extremely slim.
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#1932 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:21 am

I think Bonnie has done all she can do now, before landfall. Her center has always been small and fragile. So I think any change in the enviornment, little or not affects her alot.
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#1933 Postby OtherHD » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:24 am

It looks like the center is actually moving more NNE than NE..
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It's definitely garbage

#1934 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:34 am

I'd really be shocked to see 45-50 mph out of Bonnie at landfall. A depression maybe more realistic at landfall seriously!! The shear is in no way gonna decrease at all, hence further weakening. It may become a depression tomorrow morning IMHO!!!!

Jim
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#1935 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:36 am

I never expected much from her anyway. I was quite surprised (to say the least) today when I awoke to see her looking quite healthy during the afternoon.
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#1936 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:38 am

Bonnie should manage to hang on to TS status. I'd be really suprised if they downgrade it at this point anyway. There has been a convection blow-up over the last couple hours. The main impact of Bonnie may be just to dump rain in Florida, the Carolinas and the NE -- which will add insult to injury when Charlie comes through.
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Derek Ortt

Bonnie now 995mb

#1937 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:40 am

and max FL winds are now 65KT
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kevin

#1938 Postby kevin » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:41 am

I noticed a bouy showed 29.76 and thought 'Damn! The pressure is dropping fast from 1010.'
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#1939 Postby soonertwister » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:45 am

I think that the big issue with Bonnie has been stated as "will she become a hurricane before landfall"?

And while it is now clear that is not going to happen, maybe it's time to take a step back and see whether or not the assertion by NHC that Bonnie would be absorbed in the troff and become extratropical, dissipating in a couple of days, is really what is going to happen.

While there's no doubt that Bonnie has taken a real toll from the effects of the troff and the existing shear, there's no question that the heart of Bonnie - her surface circulation - is now to the east side of the troff and possibly moving farther away from the effect of that troff as she proceeds somewhere to the east of NE of that feature.

It seems fairly obvious to me now that Bonnie's track will be toward the right side of the guidance, so the real issue I see is whether or not Bonnie will actually be absorbed or not. She will make landfall somewhere in the Bay of Florida, possibly as just a tropical depression, although it seems odd to use that moniker for a storm that continues to have a closed circulation, albeit without wrapped convection.

If Bonnie moves away from the influence of the troff and on to the east, then the possibility exists that she is not absorbed at all, and instead passes across Florida and possibly SE Georgia before re-emerging from land into the western Atlantic.

That is not the scenario put forth by NHC, nor is it a done deal that it will happen. But that scenario needs to be considered. The two points most salient to that consideration are (1) will Bonnie continue to move away from the feature that has so disrupted her organization; and (2) will Bonnie be drawn into the circulaton of Charley as he moves north, and dissipate within that system.

Something tells me that the fate of Bonnie is not at all certain at this time, but we will know within the next couple of days whether or not Bonnie dies the death of the forgotten storm, or if she somehow emerges into the Atlantic, possibly to live another day.

As a rhetorical question I think this is of interest, especially and perhaps only because it would mean that NHC actually missed the forecast. Since complete misses by NHC are exceedingly rare, I'm compelled to think the Bonnie will most likely be absorbed by one or the other, but I remain not entirely convinced until that scenario fully resolves.
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#1940 Postby abajan » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:47 am

I was never impressed with Bonnie and was always impressed with Charlie (even before it became 93L)!
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