Bonnie Advisories

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cycloneye
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#1901 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:17 pm

I cant believe this was way down too fast.
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#1902 Postby Bane » Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:18 pm

Charley should begin strengthening soon.
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#1903 Postby Matthew5 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:22 pm

Jamaica is distroying Charley tonight! But once Charley pasts it it should bomb. Bonnie is looking like it just died!
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#1904 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:32 pm

Interesting that the NHC is now ignoring the recon reports that estimate the sfc pressure at 1006-1007mb and focusing on a recon report around 1630Z when Bonnie wasn't getting sheared apart. Bonnie's clearly under heavy shear now, as the center was nearly exposed late this afternoon. Recon this afternoon wasn't finding nearly as strong a storm. In fact, they even had trouble finding the center. I guess they can't back off now, they've issued hurricane warnings and Bonnie will become a hurricane or else! Besides, there won't be any observations where it moves ashore, so there won't be much to contradict them.
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#1905 Postby HurricaneGirl » Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:36 pm

She looked like that last night too and then exploded by this morning
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#1906 Postby MGC » Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:37 pm

Well, Bonnie is running out of water. So if it is going to become a hurricane it had better get it together and quick. Right now I am hedging on a landfall a little north of Ceder Key. Should cross Florida and head out into the Atlantic as an extratropical system......MGC
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#1907 Postby Matthew5 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:39 pm

It doe's not looks like a very well organized tropical storm?
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#1908 Postby MGC » Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:40 pm

As long as the center of Charlie remains a far off of Jamacia as it currently is then slow intensification is the order of the day.....MGC
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#1909 Postby tallywx » Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:41 pm

MGC wrote:Well, Bonnie is running out of water. So if it is going to become a hurricane it had better get it together and quick. Right now I am hedging on a landfall a little north of Ceder Key. Should cross Florida and head out into the Atlantic as an extratropical system......MGC


I would venture a preliminary guess and say landfall between Cape San Blas and Keaton Beach. While sparsely populated, there are a few observing stations in this area...buoys/CMAN at Cape San Blas and south of Apalachicola, AQQ, a private weather station at St. Teresa Beach, a decommissioned coast guard weather station now operated by a windsurfing club (for which I have the local telephone number) at Shell Point (at the very head of Apalachee Bay), a university-operated weather and tide station also at Shell Point (SHPF1 on the NDBC site), and a station at Keaton Beach.

Oh, not to mention this live weather website at Alligator Point...

http://www.clambags.com/apweather.htm

plus numerous ham radio APRS stations in the Tallahassee area...

http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxnear.cgi?call=FSUMET

So the coast around here is more or less covered.
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#1910 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 11, 2004 8:11 pm

URNT12 KNHC 120029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0029Z
B. 26 DEG 55 MIN N
88 DEG 50 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1486 M
D. 20 KT
E. 010 DEG 32 NM
F. 091 DEG 25 KT
G. 010 DEG 048 NM
H. 1008 MB
I. 18 C/ 1524 M
J. 21 C/ 1529 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/08
O. 1 /3 NM
P. AF963 0902A BONNIE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 25 KT N QUAD 0013Z.

I don't know what happened but or the RECON missed its target or Bonnie is really going downhill?
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#1911 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 11, 2004 8:35 pm

still wanting for the Blob of storms east of Jax to become the major hurricane you forecasted back on Sunday Monday to develop...

Of course today it dissipated.....

Oh well ... hey good try there rainstorm

rainstorm wrote:center becoming exposed on charley? southerly shear?
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#1912 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 11, 2004 8:39 pm

Matthew5 wrote:Jamaica is distroying Charley tonight! But once Charley pasts it it should bomb. Bonnie is looking like it just died!


No. Jamaica may have halted the strengthening, but it did NOT weaken. Pressure is down 1 mb according to recon.
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Bonnie more weak at 10 CDT

#1913 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:40 pm

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on August 11, 2004


...Bonnie somewhat disorganized...continuing northeastward toward
the Florida Panhandle...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the Florida
Panhandle and northwest Florida from Destin eastward to the mouth
of the Suwannee river.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the western Florida Panhandle from west of Destin westward to the
Alabama/Florida border.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 27.4 north...longitude 88.4 west or about
260 miles southwest of Apalachicola Florida.

Bonnie is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph...and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...Bonnie is
expected to make landfall along the central Panhandle of Florida
Thursday morning.

Reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane hunter indicate that
Bonnie has become somewhat disorganized and that maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 60 mph...with higher gusts. Some
slow strengthening is possible prior to landfall...and Bonnie may
briefly become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles mainly to
the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure extrapolated by the hurricane hunter is
1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.
Storm surge flooding could be 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
in Apalachee Bay.

Additional rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Bonnie.

Isolated tornadoes are also possible later tonight and Thursday over
the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia.

Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...27.4 N... 88.4 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Beven


Winds now down to 60 mph.
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NRL update: Bonnie at 1007 mb/Charley forecast.....

#1914 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:42 pm

to make landfall just south of Tampa Bay. Also check out the SCATT:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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#1915 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:45 pm

Not surprising as the system doesn't look as good as this morning, BUT this could change tomorrow morning...
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#1916 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:45 pm

Here pressure is pretty high for a 60mph tropical storm.
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#1917 Postby Bane » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:45 pm

I'm interested in seeing what they say in their discussion.
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#1918 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:46 pm

BTW, NRL data is from the NHC, should have noted that.
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#1919 Postby rtd2 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:48 pm

what organization it gained during the day is being torn apart and slung everywhere! its raining cats and dogs here(rain from the front!)
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#1920 Postby The Dark Knight » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:49 pm

Thanx....lOL
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