Bonnie Advisories

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Derek Ortt

#1941 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:48 am

URNT12 KNHC 120921
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0941Z
B. 28 DEG 37 MIN N
86 DEG 37 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1384 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 204 DEG 54 KT
G. 059 DEG 10 NM
H. EXTRAP 995 MB
I. 17 C/ 1527 M
J. 18 C/ 1537 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.5/8.0 NM
P. AF980 1002A BONNIE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NW QUAD 0939Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 85
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#1942 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:56 am

And winds still at 160 degrees wonder what the tampa buoy will read in a few hours?
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#1943 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:01 am

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kevx.shtml

Looks like she'll make landfall somewhere in the Big Bend area.
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#1944 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:05 am

URNT14 KNHC 121019
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01291 10891 12484 11614 29014
02290 20889 22487 21613 30015
03287 30886 32486 31615 31015
04284 40883 42483 41714 31017
05281 50879 52480 51615 29023
06282 60876 62477 61615 30023
07282 70873 72474 71716 30028
08284 80871 82464 81716 30032
09286 90869 92444 91817 34023
MF287 M0866 MF054
OBS 01 AT 0832Z
OBS 09 AT 0923Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01284 10864 12455 11717 22047
02283 20862 22472 21716 22043
03282 30859 32484 31716 22041
04279 40859 42486 41616 21046
05277 50857 52492 51715 22050
06276 60854 62495 61816 21042
07274 70853 72501 71815 21034
MF277 M0858 MF064
OBS 01 AT 0946Z
OBS 07 AT 1017Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
RMK AF980 1002A BONNIE OB 05

64kts flight level winds
winds
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Derek Ortt

#1945 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:06 am

she's also moving ENE now
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#1946 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:08 am

The NHC may have to adjust their track, as it probably wont make landfall where they pinpointed it to do so.
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#1947 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:08 am

So what does this now mean for Bonnie?
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Anonymous

#1948 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:09 am

Could it emerge back over the water, perhaps?
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#1949 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:36 am

More importantly for us in East Central Florida, would this have any impact on the track/intensity of Charley?????????????
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#1950 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:38 am

We'll find out at 11AM..,.
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#1951 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:48 am

Reading the discussion at 5am, it seems the NHC is tempted to move charley's track more to the left, but is waiting for more data. What happened to the stronf trough? Again if Bonnie is stronger and further east, wouldn't she tend to cause Charley to take on a more NE track?? Is this starting to smell a bit like Irene (not that far east of course)? :roll:
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#1952 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:49 am

New Vortex

URNT12 KNHC 121123
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1123Z
B. 29 DEG 12 MIN N
85 DEG 59 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3096 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 328 DEG 40 KT
G. 071 DEG 48 NM
H. 1007 MB
I. 9 C/ 3036 M
J. 13 C/ 3029 M
K. 7 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.5/5.0 NM
P. AF980 1002A BONNIE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 64 KT SE QUAD 1007Z.

I don't think pressure is right here. Buoy near the center is showing lower pressure than 1007mb.
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#1953 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:51 am

They must be having a real hard time hitting the center. I have a hard time believing the pressure fell 15 mbs in 4 hours. Now they are reporting 1007 mb....but there is a buoy with 1004 mbs.

Somethings not right.
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#1954 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:09 am

Winds are up to 55 mph on the 7am CDT advisory.
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#1955 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:11 am

They also have the pressure at 1003mb at 8am.
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Anonymous

From SPC Tornado watch soon for Bonnie Fla/Ga

#1956 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:12 am

Image

Code: Select all

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 121200Z - 121500Z
   
   CHANCES FOR ISOLD TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE ERN FL PNHDL AND PARTS OF SWRN GA THROUGH THIS
   MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVES ASHORE. A TORNADO WATCH MAY
   BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   EVX RADAR REVEALS THE RAGGED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE
   MAKING STEADY NWD PROGRESS TOWARD THE FL PNHDL EARLY THIS MORNING.
   AT 11Z/7AM EDT...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH BUOY
   42039 /85NM SSW PAM/...WHERE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 50KT. LATEST
   RECON DATA ALSO INDICATED A BAND OF 35-40KT LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL
   FLOW WITHIN THE ERN QUADRANT OF BONNIE AND THIS WIND FIELD IS
   CONSISTENT WITH ALL SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. SATELLITE AND MODEL
   TRENDS INDICATE THAT BONNIE WILL BE RAPIDLY ASSIMILATED BY
   UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
   APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...BONNIE SHOULD
   ACCELERATE INLAND ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA LATER THIS
   MORNING.
   
   LATEST VWP DATA FROM EVX AND TLH SHOWED GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW
   AND MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SO FAR RESULTED IN WEAK 0-1KM SRH AOB 100 M2/S2.
   SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE CIRCULATION
   CENTER NEARS THE COAST AND BAND OF STRONGER FLOW WITHIN THE ERN/NERN
   QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM
   ETA AND RUC SUGGEST THAT 0-1KM SRH OF AT LEAST 150 M2/S2 SHOULD
   DEVELOP OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN VERY MOIST
   AIRMASS AND LOW LCLS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TORNADO
   POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CORE OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE WIND
   FIELDS AND HELICITY WILL BE GREATEST.
   
   IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A LARGER REGION... DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SRN GA LATER THIS MORNING AS
   SYSTEM BECOMES INVOLVED WITH FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCELERATES INLAND. AS
   DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVER THIS LARGER AREA...EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELL POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WELL AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/12/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
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#1957 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:14 am

Hmm...
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7:00 AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE, August 12, 2004

#1958 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:28 am

7:00 AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE
THURSDAY, AUGUST 12, 2004


Tropical Storm Bonnie is still a small compact and now disorganized storm with the stronger convection to the East of the center. She is located at 29.0N, 86.1W moving Northeast around 22 mph about 80 miles Southwest of Appalachicola, FL. Ts Bonnie is expected to continue this motion and accelerate today and make landfall between Panama City Beach and Appalachicola, Florida in a few hours. Top winds in Bonnie are currently at 55 mph with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend about 45 miles from the center of this small compact storm. The minimum central pressure measured in Bonnie is 10030mb or 29.63 inches. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from the mouth of the Suwanee River Westward to the Alabama/Florida state line. After landfall Bonnie is expected to continue accelerating Northeastward and become extratropical as she heads up the the East coast inland from the coast.

In the Caribbean Hurricane Charley is approaching the Cayman Islands this morning. Charley is located near 19.2n, 80.5W and continues moving in a Northwest direction at around 16 mph and is expected to turn towards the North-Northwest during the day today. The estimated central pressure of Charley is 986mb or 29.12 inches. Charley continues to strengthen and is expected to continue this trend. Current winds are estimated at 85 mph with higher gusts to 100 mph in some squalls. Hurricane force winds extend 25 miles from the center of Charley and tropical storm force winds extend up to 115 miles from the center. A Hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. A Hurricane warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas and Florida Keys to Seven mile bridge and from East Sable to Bonita Beach on the Southwest Florida coast. A Hurricane watch has been issued from Bonita Beach to Tarpon Springs, FL. A tropical storm warning is in effect from 7 mile bridge to Ocean Reef in the Keys and on the mainland up to East Sable, FL. Hurricane watches are also in effect for the provinces of Pinar Del Rio, La Habana, Ciudad de La Habana, Matanzas and the Ilse of Youth and will probably be changed to warnings later this morning. Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can also expect large and dangerous battering waves along their coasts today as Charley moves by and away from these islands as well as heavy rains that could cause life threatening landslides. Storm surge flooding of 2-4 feet can be expected in the Florida Keys with storm surges of 6-10 feet expected along the Southwest Florida coast. Charley is expected to continue strengthening and could possibly strengthen into a major Hurricane as he moves into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. All interests in the warning and watch areas should rush preparations for a Hurricane to completion and closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Charley.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone development is not expected in the Atlantic Basin through Friday.

This is NOT an OFFICIAL product of the NHC. For OFFICIAL products contact the NHC or your local weather offices.

By David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)
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#1959 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:37 am

Station 42039 - PENSACOLA - 115NM East Southeast of Pensacola, FL

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 40.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.65 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.14 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.9 °F
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#1960 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:58 am

Code: Select all

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 742
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   850 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
             à?,ÿ¿{D3
          NORTHERN FLORIDA
          SOUTHERN GEORGIA
          COASTAL WATERS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 850 AM UNTIL
   200 PM EDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
   TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 130 STATUTE MILES EAST AND
   WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS GEORGIA
   TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROSS CITY FLORIDA.
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
   PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
   WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
   WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF N FL
   AND S GA...AS HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION ON FRINGE OF CIRCULATION
   OF T.S. BONNIE. OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE IN NW FL IN
   CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTER OF BONNIE.  DEEP SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
   AOA 40 KT LATER THIS MORNING AS BONNIE ACCELERATES NNEWD...AND LOW
   LEVEL SPEED/ DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF
   CIRCULATION CENTER.  GIVEN RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   INFLOW...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
   GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
   MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
   
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