Bonnie Advisories

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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 01, 2004 6:13 pm

Derecho what happened to LBAR that it didn't ended as the others did?
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Re: First NHC model run for 91L....

#22 Postby soonertwister » Sun Aug 01, 2004 6:44 pm



That message says "This is a test message." Is it just practice or real?

The 1800 run for Alex gets him to hurricane strength in 36 hours before diminishing.

ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 118.WHXX01
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#23 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Aug 01, 2004 6:45 pm

Sooner.. Every run says its a test :-)
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Rainband

#24 Postby Rainband » Sun Aug 01, 2004 6:54 pm

This is the one I am keeping my eyes on :eek:
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#25 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:00 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek:

This storm will make Alex look like a joke if it verifies. 8-)
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#26 Postby rbaker » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:01 pm

looks a better than this am or early this afternoon. Don't know about a 90 kt hurricane later
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#27 Postby Rainband » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:08 pm

Time will tell :wink:
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Discussion about 91L=Consolidating

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:09 pm

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 NM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT WITH A 1013 MB LOW
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10N. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND THE TSTMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED CLOSER TO THE
AXIS/LOW. THE LOW STILL APPEARS TRAPPED WITHIN THE ITCZ...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

Umm will this wave be Bonnie down the road as the models say?.It looks better tonight in contrast of earlier today.Of course I am watching it very closely from Puerto Rico.
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#29 Postby Rainband » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:11 pm

I would be too Luis :eek:
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#30 Postby vacanechaser » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:12 pm

yea luis, you may be seeing mark and i sooner than you had hoped...
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#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:13 pm

Image

The wave begins to appear at the right of the pic there.
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91L

#32 Postby HUC » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:20 pm

Why San Juan think this system will passed north of the Carribean??An upper low?But where is this Low???
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#33 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:36 pm

Hey abajan and Renata Barbados may be on the bulls eye from whatever it is when it gets there.
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#34 Postby Agua » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:45 pm

Oh crap. I don't like the location of that thing. Hope it recurves in a hurry.
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#35 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:45 pm

Ladies and Gentleman.. Welcome to August :-)
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#36 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:46 pm

All this action and we gots no MOJO.. :lol:



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... nthly.html
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#37 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:47 pm

Well that goes to show you we dont need a MJO for things to develop.
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#38 Postby TerryAlly » Sun Aug 01, 2004 8:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:Hey abajan and Renata Barbados may be on the bulls eye from whatever it is when it gets there.


Doubt it, this is likely to bypass the islands to the east as it heads NW-NNW IF it develops. If it does not then, I certainly love the rain.

Let's see what ABajan and Renata think.
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#39 Postby TerryAlly » Sun Aug 01, 2004 8:13 pm

TerryAlly wrote:Doubt it, this is likely to bypass the islands to the east as it heads NW-NNW IF it develops. If it does not then, I certainly love the rain.


I take that back, I just looked at the model run as well as the GOES-12 satellite and the disturbance seems to be organising. Let's see if it slows forward movement. Wednesday should be an interesting day for the Windward Islands.
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#40 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 01, 2004 8:17 pm

The next 10 Wednesdays should be interesting for the Islanders.. :wink:
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