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Intensity for AL91 first wave off of African coast.

#41 Postby Guest » Sun Aug 01, 2004 8:18 pm

INTENSITY FORECASTS
Time SHIPS SHIFOR
00 hr 25 kts 25 kts
12 hr 30 kts 29 kts
24 hr 37 kts 34 kts
36 hr 37 kts 40 kts
48 hr 48 kts 46 kts
60 hr 52 kts 49 kts
72 hr 56 kts 52 kts
84 hr 59 kts 54 kts
96 hr 62 kts 57 kts
108 hr 62 kts 55 kts
120 hr 62 kts 57 kts


Computer models show at least 60-63 mph by Friday, skirting towards Cuba. If it skirts up into the GOM, I feel this will be a Cat 3-4.
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#42 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Aug 01, 2004 8:18 pm

Image
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#43 Postby abajan » Sun Aug 01, 2004 8:24 pm

TerryAlly wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Hey abajan and Renata Barbados may be on the bulls eye from whatever it is when it gets there.


Doubt it, this is likely to bypass the islands to the east as it heads NW-NNW IF it develops. If it does not then, I certainly love the rain.

Let's see what ABajan and Renata think.


Terry, I think earlier this evening David Best (our local TV met) was way too low keyed about that wave. With everyone here focused on festivities, I hope we're not in for a rude awakening in a few days time!
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#44 Postby TerryAlly » Sun Aug 01, 2004 8:39 pm

abajan wrote:Terry, I think earlier this evening David Best (our local TV met) was way too low keyed about that wave. With everyone here focused on festivities, I hope we're not in for a rude awakening in a few days time!


I didn't watch the TV weather ... I seldom do. The local mets tend not to hype anything short of a cyclone, that's their MO.

Wind shear in the environment immediately west of the system is strong but forecast to decrease but after that it returns with a vengeance.

Despite what the models say, I am not getting excited as yet ... not before Tuesday morning.

Terry
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#45 Postby Three Blind Mice » Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:15 pm

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#46 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:16 pm

If 91L can continue to become better organized i wont be surprise if we have another tropical depression possibly tropical storm in the next 24-48 hours.
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#47 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:17 pm

Wow. Keep in mind the thing off the coast still has to maintain itself for a little while. 91L, on the other hand, has maintained itself. However, it is moving WAY too fast. It still has potential, and the highest potential of any system in the Atlantic right now, but not for another day or so.
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1030 outlook on 91L

#48 Postby vacanechaser » Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:18 pm

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#49 Postby wx247 » Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:19 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:If 91L can continue to become better organized i wont be surprise if we have another tropical depression possibly tropical storm in the next 24-48 hours.


I imagine that this is a little too optimistic. You never can tell though...
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#50 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:20 pm

Cool. A little action is always nice to have. It just needs to slow down! Maybe someone cut its breaks... :roll:
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#51 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:29 pm

The fast movement is typical of a system that is fighting the sal
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#52 Postby TerryAlly » Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:46 pm

It is also moving NW - away from the island - at least the southern islands. I'd be very surprised if this crossed the southern islands as the numerical models seem to suggest.
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#53 Postby corpusbreeze » Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:56 pm

Two words ...LOOKING GOOD! Just ope the dry air in front dont kill it.
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#54 Postby MGC » Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:59 pm

I am taking a wait and see attitude considering the last strong wave that didn't do squat. But it is looking pretty good this evening....MGC
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#55 Postby Stormchaser16 » Sun Aug 01, 2004 10:00 pm

Definately LOOKS pretty good, yet- still moving way too fast, and the environment isnt exactly what i would call "great" for development, nonetheless it does indeed hold potential for development within a few days(slowly)
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91L is breaking up

#56 Postby Renata » Mon Aug 02, 2004 3:52 am

The Eastern Caribbean Force Field is begining to affect 91L and shattering it as it approaches :lol: 8-)
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#57 Postby abajan » Mon Aug 02, 2004 3:58 am

3 factors working against it: forward speed, SAL and shear dead ahead.

Despite this, I still think it'll make it to TD status before reaching the islands.
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#58 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 02, 2004 5:16 am

It's not breaking up. IT's actually becoming more organized.
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T number 1.5 for 91

#59 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 02, 2004 5:59 am

02/0545 UTC 11.0N 43.5W T1.5/1.5 91


Looking good this morning.It has slowed down a little bit from yesterday from 25 mph to now 20 mph.
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#60 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Aug 02, 2004 6:12 am

The system is looking quite impressive this morning with a large envelope of cloudiness. However, there are 3 things that have kept it from developing more rapidly:

1) Fast forward motion, although the system has slowed down as you mentioned. I would expect it to slow down further as it reaches the edge of the High Pressure System to the North and approaches the UL trough N of Puerto Rico.

2) Circulation still too broad preventing rapid strengthening.

3) Absence of VERY deep convection anywhere in the system, especially over the center. Now, if deep convection develops in the center of the system, then the circulation will most likely tighten up and we could see development come sooner.

Still, though, the system will most likely become a TD within the next 12-24 hours, but any development should be slow until all those factors that I mentioned become favorable.
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