Alex Advisories

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HalloweenGale
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Where is ALEX now?

#1301 Postby HalloweenGale » Fri Aug 06, 2004 4:18 pm

where is Extratropical storm ALEX now?
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ColdFront77

#1302 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Aug 06, 2004 4:22 pm

Based on the 5:00 AM Eastern and 11:00 AM Eastern Advisories from the National Hurricane Center
and only on the approximately locations of the center of Alex... the center will be NEAR 48.5°N 27.7°W.
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Re: Where is ALEX now?

#1303 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 06, 2004 4:27 pm

HalloweenGale wrote:where is Extratropical storm ALEX now?


Approaching Europe. :eek:
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#1304 Postby HalloweenGale » Fri Aug 06, 2004 4:32 pm

good, europe needs a storm :evil:
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ColdFront77

#1305 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Aug 06, 2004 4:34 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Based on the 5:00 AM Eastern and 11:00 AM Eastern Advisories from the National Hurricane Center
and only on the approximately locations of the center of Alex... the center will be NEAR 48.5°N 27.7°W.

..............48.5°N 27.7°W is about 810 miles WSW of the southwestern coast of Ireland.
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rainstorm

#1306 Postby rainstorm » Fri Aug 06, 2004 4:40 pm

BayouVenteux wrote:
rainstorm wrote:alot depends on whether an even more powerful trough hits the gom next week, and that seems likely now. an old front needs time to develop, and it may have very little of that. we need a blocked flow, not a progressive one


Hmmm. Sounds like some ideas to consider here in this excerpt from this afternoon's prelim HPC discussion:

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR TO SURGE SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS/MS VLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE ATLC/GULF COAST STATES BY MIDWEEK. MID LVL DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT BRIEFLY HVY RNFL ALON THE NRN PART OF THE FRONT BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURE SHOULD KEEP OVERALL AMTS IN THE LGT-MDT RANGE. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN OR STALL FROM THE SRN PLAINS THRU THE GULF COAST STATES AND ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 06Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE DUE TO FEEDBACK... BUT STILL EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO TRACK SEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ALONG/N OF THE WRN PART OF THE SFC FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RNFL ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE TO FRONTAL WAVES... BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE AS TO WHAT EXTENT. 06Z GFS HAS HVY RNFL DUE TO CONTINUATION OF THE FEEDBACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS... WHILE THE 00Z GFS PULLS IN SOME GULF OF MEXICO MSTR ORIGINALLY ASSOC WITH SYSTEM NOW OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN. MANUAL FCST THAT BRINGS THE CARIB SYS TO THE WRN GULF COAST BY DAY 5 WED REFLECTS YESTERDAYS COORDINATED HPC/NHC TRACK... AND STILL SEEMS TO HAVE SOME MERIT GIVEN WWD TREND OF
RECENT GFS RUNS. THUS WOULD PREFER TO DOWNPLAY INFLUENCE OF THIS SYS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF AND SERN/ERN CONUS.


if another front does come down then shear will increase and any low will be pushed well south into mexico. if another front werent diving down i would say development was likely
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#1307 Postby The Dark Knight » Fri Aug 06, 2004 4:41 pm

ET Storm Alex isn't looking like anything at all anymore......
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#1308 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 06, 2004 4:55 pm

HalloweenGale wrote:good, europe needs a storm :evil:


France and Germany especially. :lol:
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#1309 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 06, 2004 6:45 pm

:lol:
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#1310 Postby The Dark Knight » Fri Aug 06, 2004 6:47 pm

....LOL....
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#1311 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 06, 2004 8:12 pm

¡¡¡I HAVE THE ANSWER!!!

Image
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#1312 Postby paulvogel » Fri Aug 06, 2004 9:34 pm

i just lloked at the bbc fcst and it sure does look like et alex will slam into the british isles sunday and monday

heavy thundery rain with wind

they dont mention it as the remnants of alex.
and technically it aint..

but they do have palm trees in sw ireland and cornwall

so they can have tropical and extra trop weather
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#1313 Postby ncweatherwizard » Fri Aug 06, 2004 9:55 pm

Brent wrote:
HalloweenGale wrote:good, europe needs a storm :evil:


France and Germany especially. :lol:


:cough, cough: If it weren't for France, US wouldn't have come around back in the day... :cough, cough:

Little respect for our European counterparts will you? :x

Ok..enough of that. End this here before it gets too political.
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#1314 Postby HalloweenGale » Fri Aug 06, 2004 10:24 pm

paulvogel wrote:i just lloked at the bbc fcst and it sure does look like et alex will slam into the british isles sunday and monday

heavy thundery rain with wind

they dont mention it as the remnants of alex.
and technically it aint..

but they do have palm trees in sw ireland and cornwall

so they can have tropical and extra trop weather

What are you smoking? Ireland is treeless, and so is cornwall.
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#1315 Postby BayouVenteux » Sat Aug 07, 2004 12:06 am

HalloweenGale wrote:What are you smoking? Ireland is treeless, and so is cornwall.


As a former hurricane hunter :wink: I thought you would be intimately familiar with the Gulf Stream. The same prolific current of warm water that juices up hurricanes (per Alex earlier this week) also brings mild weather to the southwest portions of Ireland and England (Cornwall). Believe it or not, Cornwall not only has palm trees in abundance, but actually has some pretty decent surfing beaches as well.
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#1316 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Aug 07, 2004 2:11 am

BayouVenteux wrote:
HalloweenGale wrote:What are you smoking? Ireland is treeless, and so is cornwall.


As a former hurricane hunter :wink: I thought you would be intimately familiar with the Gulf Stream. The same prolific current of warm water that juices up hurricanes (per Alex earlier this week) also brings mild weather to the southwest portions of Ireland and England (Cornwall). Believe it or not, Cornwall not only has palm trees in abundance, but actually has some pretty decent surfing beaches as well.


Maybe that is why Hurricane Debbie made landfall on Ireland (as a weak Category 1) in 1961. She must've gotten confused.

BTW, Debbie's the only hurricane to make it to Europe as a hurricane. I think she was beginning to transistion to extratropical but was still a hurricane at landfall.
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#1317 Postby senorpepr » Sat Aug 07, 2004 4:24 am

HURAKAN wrote:¡¡¡I HAVE THE ANSWER!!!

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/emtbkna.gif


Ahhh ... I'm glad someone else found the DWD/UBerlin Maps. The chart that Sandy posted was the 36 hour forecast. Here's the current analysis.

Image
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#1318 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 07, 2004 7:43 am

ncweatherwizard wrote:
Brent wrote:
HalloweenGale wrote:good, europe needs a storm :evil:


France and Germany especially. :lol:


:cough, cough: If it weren't for France, US wouldn't have come around back in the day... :cough, cough:

Little respect for our European counterparts will you? :x

Ok..enough of that. End this here before it gets too political.


I was referring to recent things regarding the war in Iraq, not stuff that happened 60 years ago.
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#1319 Postby HalloweenGale » Sat Aug 07, 2004 8:21 am

Brent wrote:
HalloweenGale wrote:good, europe needs a storm :evil:


France and Germany especially. :lol:


Naaahh France only!
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#1320 Postby HalloweenGale » Sat Aug 07, 2004 8:51 am

yes I know all about the gulf stream. but ever notice that the only palm trees they have in Cornwall are at a park, or resort? SW Ireland is actually treeless.
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