Mindulle Advisories

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SupertyphoonTip
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Tropical Storm Mindulle

#1 Postby SupertyphoonTip » Wed Jun 23, 2004 9:39 am

Invest 90W did indeed develop, and this morning it is a 35-knot tropical storm. The forecast takes it westward, and it should be around 90-knots as it begins to turn to the north on Sunday morning. Could this be another Japan landfall? Only time will tell.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_WPAC_10W.MINDULLE_ssmi_gif_full.html
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#2 Postby shaner » Wed Jun 23, 2004 11:30 am

Jeez, for a guy who live in Cape Cod, you sure are on top of the Pacific. Ever thought about moving to Cape Flattery, WA?
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#3 Postby SupertyphoonTip » Wed Jun 23, 2004 1:20 pm

Jeez, for a guy who live in Cape Cod, you sure are on top of the Pacific. Ever thought about moving to Cape Flattery, WA?


Well, a tropical storm is a tropical storm. I can't think of anything else to look at anyway, seeing as how the Atlantic is so boring right now :lol:
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Me Too........

#4 Postby Dave C » Wed Jun 23, 2004 1:43 pm

I live near Cape Cod also and like watching West Pac. :lol: :lol: :lol: Hopefully the storm will pass near some reporting stations so we can follow the winds etc.
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#5 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jun 23, 2004 3:09 pm

I hope you MA guys are not liberals. LOL Just kidding, Mindulle will hit 110 kts in my opinion.
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#6 Postby SupertyphoonTip » Wed Jun 23, 2004 4:25 pm

I hope you MA guys are not liberals.


LOL

Mindulle will hit 110 kts in my opinion


Well that's possible, but I don't think it has enough time to get that strong, especially with the current forecast for Mindulle to move westward and brush the northern Philippines and then possibly a landfall in southeast China early next week. Still, anything could happen between now and then.
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#7 Postby Aquawind » Wed Jun 23, 2004 6:53 pm

Coming together alrighty.. 8-)

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE)
/WARNING NR 2//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 231200Z8 TO 281200Z3 JUN 2004.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MINDULLE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231130Z0
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRACKING EASTWARD OFF THE ASIAN CONTINENT WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE SLIGHTLY, CREATING A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, JGSM, NCEP
GFS, AND JTYM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. ANOTHER CIRCULATION
IS DEVELOPED EAST OF 10W DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD TO VARYING
EXTENTS WITHIN THE MODEL FIELDS. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS CAUSING
INTERACTION BETWEEN 10W AND THE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION THAT IS
AFFECTING TRACK MOVEMENT IN SOME MODELS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
C. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A DVORAK
T-NUMBER PER DAY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS, AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS EXCELLENT, HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND THE POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM DIMINISHES. INTENSIFICATION
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FOR A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS TS 10W
INTENSIFIES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS THERE
IS VERY LOW AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MODELS.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/KLINZMANN/HEILER//

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#8 Postby SupertyphoonTip » Wed Jun 23, 2004 7:22 pm

T3.0/3.0 right now, looks like it got a bit stronger. At the forecasted rate it should be a typhoon tomorrow afternoon. Looks like southeastern China is going to get hit by this one!
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Mindulle is now a typhoon

#9 Postby SupertyphoonTip » Sat Jun 26, 2004 8:27 pm

Although the 18Z package did not forecast 65-knot winds until tomorrow afternoon, there is no question that Mindulle has now become a typhoon. The satellite imagery shows a recently-developed eye and the intensity estimates are T4.0/4.0 (65 knots). Guess it's strengthening faster than they thought.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/satshots/wp1004sair.jpg
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#10 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Jun 26, 2004 8:29 pm

Tingting seems to be pretty close, too, as it is at a 3.5 right now.
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#11 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jun 26, 2004 9:03 pm

Actually, Mindulle is still a tropical storm. 00Z fix was a 60kt storm.
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 26, 2004 9:23 pm

Image
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 26, 2004 9:36 pm

ALMOST A TYPHOON, JUST 5 KNOTS FROM THE CATEGORY; IT SHOULD BE TYPHOON BY TOMORROW MORNING AND TINGTING A TYPHOON BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON

Image

Image
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#14 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jun 26, 2004 9:40 pm

I still have to laugh at that name: Tingting.
Last edited by senorpepr on Sat Jun 26, 2004 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#15 Postby Aquawind » Sat Jun 26, 2004 9:47 pm

A Couple of nice spins on the Sat pic there! 8-)
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#16 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Sat Jun 26, 2004 9:58 pm

Yes that is for sure a couple of nice looking spins out over the Pacific!
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#17 Postby SupertyphoonTip » Sat Jun 26, 2004 10:42 pm

A tropical storm with an eye? The satellite pictures show a large and nearly clear eye...

Well, either way, it will strengthen faster than expected. Looks quite organized at this time.
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It Can Happen

#18 Postby Aslkahuna » Sat Jun 26, 2004 10:57 pm

Typhoon Kim in 1977 had a clearly defined eye on radar when it crossed Guam as a 55kt TS.

Steve
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#19 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jun 27, 2004 3:34 am

The 09Z advisory will be upgraded to a typhoon of 65kts.
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#20 Postby Matthew5 » Sun Jun 27, 2004 4:30 am

Nice typhoon! I think around 90 knot around 60 hours.
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