Tingting Advisories

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WXBUFFJIM
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Tropical situation, Tropical Storm watch in effect for Guam.

#1 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sat Jun 26, 2004 1:01 pm

It's a nice Saturday so far both along the east coast and in the Atlantic Basin with respect to the tropics. The Gulf Of Mexico also remains quiet except for a few thunderstorms, which have fired over the past day or two over the northwest Gulf and continue to do do right now. At this time, tropical development is not an immient concern over the northwest Gulf. But this is a climotologically favored area this time of year and will continued to be monitored as things can change quickly day by day.

Taking a look at the eastern Pacific reveals an interesting feature on this Saturday, which we have been monitoring over the past several days or so. This 1009 mb low pressure system is centered around 12 north, 121 west. Scattered moderate to strong convection continues with this system. While it could potentially become a depression, it's also being sheared by very strong northeast winds aloft over this system. Thus most of the convection is southwest of this actual 1009 mb low pressure center and it's moving away from land. So not anticipating this to bother anyone whether this develops or not.

Further west into the west Pacific, two tropical systems could be bothering somebody before we're all said and done. The first system has recently just developed into a tropical storm just east of Guam over the past day. The latest coordinates centers tropical storm Tingting near latitude 12.1 north, longitude 150.4 east. Movement continues towards the northwest at around 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated over the next several days as it continues on a northwest track towards the general direction of Saipen just north of Guam. After passing through Saipan, Tingting could become a typhoon. As a result of the present track of Tingting, A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. Residents in the area should begind picking up loose objects and be prepared to take more straingent actions should they be warranted. Residents should listen for official updates and statements concerning this tropical system.

Rainfall amounts of 6-8 inches is possible with this particular system. Storm surge levels of 2-3 feet in low lying coastal areas are possible with wave heights of 11-14 feet. Winds could be sustained at 50-60 mph with a few higher gusts, especially closer to Saipan. Isolated tornadoes are a possibility, especially in areas north and east of this circulation center or in areas north of Saipan.

Meanwhile we still have to deal with another tropical system in the west Pacific just east of the Philippines. Tropical Storm Mindulle has maximum sustained winds of near 60 mph with a few higher gusts. Mindulle is centered at around latitude 15.2 north, longitude 129.5 east. Movement continues towards the west northwest at near 9 mph. However a movement towards the northwest is anticipated over the next day or two followed by a turn towards the north. This means while this system is expected to strengthen, it shouldn't pose a direct hit on the Philippines or Taiwan. However folks in these areas will need to keep watching this system as it's showing some signs of getting better organized.

That's the latest on the tropics at this time.

Jim
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test

#2 Postby Dave C » Sat Jun 26, 2004 4:17 pm

ok
Last edited by Dave C on Sat Jun 26, 2004 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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winds increasing.......

#3 Postby Dave C » Sat Jun 26, 2004 4:19 pm

Winds really picking up in Guam
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PGUA.html
Lots of rain as feeder band sits over area.
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Tingting update, updates from Guam, Rota, and Saipan

#4 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sat Jun 26, 2004 4:50 pm

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. Residents in the area should begin picking up loose objects and be prepared to take more straingent actions should they be warranted. Residents should listen for official updates and statements concerning this tropical system.

The latest observation from Guam International Airport shows heavy rain/ fog/windy. Temp 79, dewpoint 77, relative humidity 94%. Winds northwest 29 mph, gusts to 36 mph. Pressure 29.56 inches and on the fall.

At Rota Intl reporting a thunderstorm. Temperature 79, dewpoint 77, relative humidity 94%. Northwest winds 20 mph gusting to 25 mph. Pressure 29.55 inches and on the fall.

Saipan reporting rain and fog. Temperature 81, dewpoint 77, relative humidity 89%. North wind 13 mph. Pressure 29.52 and on the fall.

Conditions should continue to go downhill both at Saipan, Rota, and Guam throughout the next 24 hours as Tropical Storm TingTing approaches and directly impacts areas just north of Saipan with typhoon force gusts and heavy rain.

The latest information on Tropical Storm TingTing shows some slight strengthening since the last advisory with maximum sustained winds up near 50 mph with gusts to 65 mph at the present time. Tingting is centered at about latitude 13.0 north, longitude 150.0 east. Movement is towards the northwest at near 9 mph. A turn towards the north is expected to commence over the next few days. Thus the direct impacts from the center of this system will be more felt north of Saipan. However Saipan, Rota, and Guam could still see tropical storm force winds sustained with gusts of 60 mph in Guam, 65 mph in Rota and close to 75 mph in Saipan in the gusts. As a result of that, a tropical storm watch is up for these areas and could be upgraded to warnings later on within the next 6-12 hours or so.

More updates throughout the night.

Jim
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#5 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sat Jun 26, 2004 4:52 pm

nw 29 mph, gust to 36 mph in guam.

nw at 20 gusts to 25 mph in Rota.

Both areas have very heavy rains and thunderstorms as well.

Jim
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#6 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Sat Jun 26, 2004 7:41 pm

Well I hope that the people in the Guam area have taken precautions!
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#7 Postby SupertyphoonTip » Sat Jun 26, 2004 7:46 pm

In the last few hours, we have seen some strong convection develop just east of Guam and that is causing very heavy rain and thunderstorms as shown by the radar. Here is the estimated rainfall so far from Tingting. Note how an area of over a foot of rain can be seen to the east, and parts of Guam have had up 5 or more inches of rain, while Saipan has seen little rainfall so far.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.80stp/si.pgua.shtml

Also, the forecast now calls for Tingting to become a typhoon while passing through the Northern Mariana Islands and there are now Typhoon Watches for these islands. Should get quite interesting by tomorrow evening.
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TINGTING update.....TYPHOON WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...

#8 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sat Jun 26, 2004 10:06 pm

A typhoon watch is in effect for Guam and Rota meaning typhoon force winds are possible within the next 36 hours. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Guam and Rota meaning tropical storm force winds are expected within the next 24 hours or less. A typhoon warning is in effect for Tinian and Saipan meaning typhoon conditions with winds sustained at 74 mph or higher are expected within the next 24 hours or less.

In addition to that, there are flash flood warnings in effect for the island of Guam effective until 5 PM LST guam time. Torrential rainfall with rain rates of 3 inches per hour are indicated by doppler radar over the island of Guam. This band of rain has been stationary over the next several hours. An additional 4-5 inches of rain is likely in Gua,m. Thus flash flooding in mountain valleys, at the base of mountains, and along rivers and streams are likely. This is an extremely dangerous situation for the island of Guam as heavy rain continues. Guam International on the last obs had heavy rain and sustained winds at 32 mph with a gust to 41 mph.

As of the latest advisory, tropical storm Tingting has strengthened with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Movement is toward the northwest at near 13 mph. On this track, Tingting should track just to the north of the island of Saipan over the next day or so as a minimal typhoon with sustained winds of 75 mph with gusts over 90 mph. The latest coordinates places this tropical storm near latitude 13.8 north, longitude 149.3 east.

Stay tuned throughout the night for the latest on this one!!

Jim
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rainstorm

#9 Postby rainstorm » Sat Jun 26, 2004 10:12 pm

thanks
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#10 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jun 26, 2004 10:13 pm

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM TINGTING ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
11 AM GUAM LST SUN JUN 27 2004


TROPICAL STORM TINGTING CONTINUES TOWARDS THE MARIANAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
GUAM AND ROTA. A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS THAT TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH DAMAGING WINDS OF
39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM GUAM LST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TINGTING
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.3
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 305 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND 255 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL STORM TINGTING CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM TINGTING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF TINGTING ACROSS
SAIPAN BY MONDAY MORNING AND BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO
GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A
CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD PUT ANY OF THESE ISLANDS IN ITS DIRECT
PATH. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE ON GUAM WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION...13.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 149.3
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM TINGTING LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ82 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
2 PM.

WELLS/HALL
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GUAM situation......current conditions

#11 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sun Jun 27, 2004 12:10 am

A flash flood warning continues in effect for southern Guam until 5 PM Guam time. Torrential rainfall with rainfall rates of up to 4 inches an hour have pounded this area for the past several hours. Repetitive extremely heavy rainfall courtesy of stationary thunderstorms will continue over the southern mountains.

Some preliminary rainfall total from Guam are as follows so far in this storm.

MONGMONG/TOTO/MAITE... 10.51 INCHES
GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... 9.46 INCHES
MANGILAO AUTOMATED OBSERVATION... 7.94 INCHES
INARAJAN AUTOMATED OBSERVATION... 7.17 INCHES
ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE... 4.66 INCHES
MERIZO AUTOMATED OBSERVATION... 4.36 INCHES


This is a particularly dangerous flood situation for especially southern Guam. Current observations from Guam International continue to indicate rain and windy conditions. Temperature 77, dewpoint 77, relative humidity 100%. Winds west 36 mph gusting to 45 mph. Pressure 29.49 inches and on the fall.

Other obs at midnight eastern time are as follows.

Rota Intl: Light rain, 81 degrees, dewpoint 77, relative humidity 89%. Wind northwest 20 mph, pressure 29.46 inches and on the fall.

West Tinian, Tinian Island: Overcast/breezy. Temperature 84, dewpoint 79, heat index 95, relative humidity 84%. North wind 21 mph gustting to 26 mph. Pressure 29.41 inches and on the fall.

Jim
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#12 Postby Matthew5 » Sun Jun 27, 2004 4:31 am

Thank you Jim you do a very good job 8-)
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weatherlover427

#13 Postby weatherlover427 » Sun Jun 27, 2004 4:44 am

Guam International Obs (as of 2:41 AM PDT):

27 19:25 W 33 G 45 2.50 Rain Fog/Mist and Windy BKN006 OVC010 75 75 29.50 NA
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rainstorm

#14 Postby rainstorm » Sun Jun 27, 2004 7:57 am

excellent info
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#15 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Sun Jun 27, 2004 9:09 am

Agreed!
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Latest Guam Radar...

#16 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Sun Jun 27, 2004 9:13 am

Looks like they are going to get quite a bit more rain!!


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... pgua.shtml
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#17 Postby Valkhorn » Sun Jun 27, 2004 12:35 pm

Guam recieved 29.64 inches of rain yesterday.

They've already recieved 4 inches today.

That is scary.
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Guam Observations, latest on Tingting

#18 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sun Jun 27, 2004 1:12 pm

Taking a look at the situation in Guam is not a pretty one. The only good news for the island of Guam is the typhoon watch has been cancelled, same for Rota. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for both Rota and Guam. Latest observations at 3:42 am in Guam/ 1:42 PM EDT shows heavy rain and windy conditions. Temperature 77 degrees, dewpoint 75, relative humidity 94%. Winds west at 39 mph gusting now up to 52 mph. Pressure is now down to 29.42 inches and it has been falling recently.
A flash flood warning remains in effect for Guam for about another hour or so and it's expiration time is expected to be 5 AM LST 3 PM EDT. However with ongoing heavy rains, this flash flood warning will likely be extended for a much later time. Doppler radar has indicated that over 15 inches of rain has fallen on Guam and it's not surprising that we could have seen up to over 2 feet of rain in Guam. 11 inches has fallen in 8 hours according to a weather spotter in Guam. This is a very dangerous situation. Low Lying areas, base of mountains valleys and streams and rivers are especially under the gun with respect to major flooding.

In Saipan conditions are going downhill where a typhoon warning is in effect. Temperature at 3:47 am LST 1:47 PM EDT is 81 degrees, dewpoint 77, relative humidity 89%. Winds northwest 21 mph gusting to 37 mph and pressure 29.14 inches and on the fall.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam and Rota. The Typhoon watch that was in effect for Guam and Rota was cancelled as of 2 AM LST. A typhoon warning is in effect for Tinian and Saipan. A typhoon watch has been hoisted for Agrihan.

A flash flood warning is up for Guam until 5 AM LST, but could easily be extended until a much later time. A flash flood watch is up for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan until 6 PM LST.

At 1 AM LST, 11 AM EDT, tropical storm Tingting was centered near latitude 15.0 north, longitude 147.3 east or about 200 miles east northeast of Guam. This is also about 105 miles east of Saipan. Tingting is moving northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are up to 65mph with higher gusts.

The following are shelters available in Guam
...GUAM...

SHELTERS REMAIN OPEN AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ON GUAM...
GEORGE WASHINGTON HIGH SCHOOL
INARAJAN MIDDLE SCHOOL
HS TRUMAN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
ASTUMBO ELEMENTARY

After this system affects the Mariana Islands, Iwo Jima will be next in line with a more powerful Typhoon Tingting possibly causing havok with wind damage, storm surge, and more heavy rain.

Jim
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More info.

#19 Postby Dave C » Sun Jun 27, 2004 2:16 pm

Here's a nice sat pic of the 2 west pac. systems
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/GUAMCOL.JPG
Tingting is moving past Saipan and should approach Iwo-Jima in a few days. Here's a link to Pagan, a sparshly populated island north of Saipan, newest obs are at bottom.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/pr/arc/XPAGAN
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update on Guam flooding

#20 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sun Jun 27, 2004 3:37 pm

The weather service in Guam has issued a flash flood warning in effect until 3 PM LST for Guam. Doppler radar continues to indicate a very large area of very heavy rain over Guam, which remains situated just south of the center of Tropical Storm Tingting. During the past 30 hours, an automated station at Inarajan indicates over 20 inches of rain has accumulated, which is over southern Guam. Continuing heavy rains will only aggreviate the existing flooding caused by this record rainfall already received. Radar indicats up to 3 inches per hour continues to fall. An additional 6-10 inches of rain is expected within the next 10 hours or so, thus just more aggraviation to the already existing flooding problems.

This is an extremely dangerous situation, especially in low lying areas, at the base of mountain valleys, and near streams and rivers. Go to higher ground immediately if you're in this area. Never cross a flooded road by vehicle or by foot.

Currently Guam has heavy rain, temperature 75 degrees, west wind 40 mph gusting to 49. Guam has gusted closer to 52 mph recently.
Jim
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