Dianmu Advisories

[Stephanie]

Thanks Sandy for those pictures. They are awesome!!!

What a perfect formation!

[The Dark Knight]

Good pictures!

[The Dark Knight]

WTPN31 PGTW 181500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (DIANMU) WARNING NR 023A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- NEAR 20.3N5 130.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 326 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N5 130.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 21.9N2 129.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 23.5N0 129.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 25.4N1 129.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 27.4N3 129.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 33.2N8 131.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 39.4N6 135.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 45.2N1 143.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION NEAR 20.7N9 130.1E5.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 09W (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181130Z4 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127
KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW INCREASED POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE AS WELL AS
GOOD EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE FOR STY 09W. FURTHER ANALYSIS
ALSO REVEALS A 25 NM DIAMETER EYE WHICH HAS WARMED OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z2 IS 32 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2, 190300Z3,
190900Z9 AND 191500Z6. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ON WARNING POSITION TO 130 KT. REMOVED
EXTRATROPICAL FROM WARNING POSITION AND INSERTED EXTRATROPICAL
INTO 120 HOUR POSITION.//

[The Dark Knight]

Reasoning for Dainmu:
WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 09W (DIANMU)
/WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 181200Z2 TO 231200Z8 JUN 2004.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 09W (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW INCREASED
POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE AS WELL AS GOOD EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE
FOR STY 09W. FURTHER ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS A 25 NM DIAMETER
EYE, WHICH HAS WARMED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE FORMALLY
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM HAS MIGRATED SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS NO LONGER
DAMPENING THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. STY 09W IS NOW
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TOWARD A COL LOCATED NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. POLEWARD
DIFFLUENCE HAS LINKED UP WITH A TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
AND HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET, JGSM, AND NCEP GFS, ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
C. DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OF
THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED THE INTENSITY OF STY 09W OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF STY 09W PROPAGATES FURTHER
EASTWARD, THUS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AS STY 09W TRANSITS POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CONVERGENT
PORTION OF THE STEERING RIDGE. BY TAU 72, STY 09W WILL ENTER COOLER
WATERS AND WILL START EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL JET, FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AND BEGINNING ITS
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED
SYSTEM.
E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS STY 09W CONTINUING POLEWARD
OVER KYUSHU AND INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND ENTERS INTO THE
COLDER WATERS OF THE SEA OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//

[WXBUFFJIM]

Yea, but for it to go from what was a cat 1 landfall to a cat2-3 landfall is pretty scary, especially in a island nation like Japan.

Jim

[Derek Ortt]

Here is the official advisory from JMA

WTPQ20 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0406 DIANMU (0406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 20.6N 130.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 23.6N 129.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
45HF 201200UTC 27.5N 130.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
69HF 211200UTC 34.5N 131.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT

http://www.jma.go.jp/JMA_HP/en/typh/typh.all.html

these are 10 minute sustained winds; however, their pressure is also quite a bit higher than the cooresponding pressure from JTWC

[Derek Ortt]

JMA is still forecasting 70KT based upon an initial intensity of 925mb and 10 minute sustained winds of 100KT

[HURAKAN]

Japan is lucky to be up north, if not the results would be different.

[HURAKAN]

At the moment Dianmu will be impacting Japan it will be racing toward the NE and doing the transition from tropical to extratropical. If they are prepare the damages will not be significant.

[hurricanefloyd5]

hay will it hit as a supertyphoon or as a strong typhoon??????????????

[SupertyphoonTip]

It should make landfall as a 95-105 knot typhoon (Category 2-3).

[Lindaloo]

That is really frightening! My heart will be with the people that have to endure this.

I second that!!

[The Dark Knight]

Me three!!!! I'm glad I live in the U.S. We don't get "big-killers" every summer!!!!! Phew!!!!

[HurricaneBill]

The forecast has Dianmu weakening to 125 mph then getting back up to 135 mph, and then hitting japan as a category 2-3.....

Surprise! Dianmu strengthened more than expected and sustained winds are currently at 150 mph. Dianmu has been re-upgraded to super typhoon status. However, a Category 2-3 landfall on Japan is still expected.

[cajungal]

I hope I never see a hurricane like that heading for the Louisiana coast! I could never imagine what would happen if a hurricane like Camille would hit the southeast Louisiana coast. You could write Houma and New Orleans off the map for sure! And if you did not evacuate far, far inland, you could kiss yourself goodbye.

[Anonymous]

Geez, thats bad.

[HURAKAN]

Now Dianmu after recovering its Super status comes back to 125 knots, let see if this trend of weakening continues which is probably what is going to happen.

[HURAKAN]

[FWBHurricane]

Its strengthened again, winds are at 145mph and its moving NW at 12mph now. Its suppost to strike southern Japan as a Category two..winds probably ranging from 105mph-110mph. Most problems will be with Flooding and rain but with winds over 100mph, alot of damage can occur. Looking at its projected path..Nagasaki may be alittle east of it it. The western portion of the eyewall could just barely miss Nagasaki.

[Anonymous]

I think it will be around 115 mph.