Dianmu Advisories

[HurricaneBill]

This is historic.

This is the West Pac; this is ROUTINE

Exactly. Typhoons are like nor'easters to Japan.

Sort of.

[The Cape Cod Storm]

that that things big!!!

[Anonymous]

One thing the NHC is weak in is intensity... So...as fast as this is exploding, it could be still a super by the time it reaches the Japan despite the forecasted weakenning-agree?

[Aslkahuna]

JTWC does insofar as the US is concerned. However, the Typhoon Warning Center in Tokyo has prime responsibility for Tropical warnings in WPAC and there is one important fact to be aware of. They use the WMO definition for sustained winds (10 minute average vs 1 minute for the US) so their forecast windspeeds will always be at least 20% lower than JT's. As an aside, this is the third Super in WPAC this year so far. The forecast winds for the 24 hour period of 165kt implies a pressure of 865mb based upon JT's wind/pressure relationship so this is potentially a storm in the same class as STY Tip in 1979-however, we will never know for sure since there's no recon out there. Anyway, have a gander at it.



Steve
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[SupertyphoonTip]

Super-typhoon Tip's maximum wind speed was 165 knots (190 MPH) but it wasn't the wind speed that was so extraordinary, it was the pressure of 870 mb (25.69 inches). Also, it covered such a huge area that if such a storm were to occur in the Gulf of Mexico, it would cover everything between Guatemala and Kentucky, Mexico City to the Bahamas. Its circulation pattern was 1380 miles in diameter. Incredible!

[bevgo]

AWESOME!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Maximum sustained winds are now up to 150 knots, pressure estimated to be 885 millibars with this supertyphoon.

Jim

[JPmia]

Does anyone know if any countries in this region fly recon missions into West Pac. storms? Especially the Super Typhoons? It seems we have a couple of them every year over there. I imagine there are great research opportunities all year round.

[Anonymous]

Does anyone know if any countries in this region fly recon missions into West Pac. storms? Especially the Super Typhoons? It seems we have a couple of them every year over there. I imagine there are great research opportunities all year round.

There are no reconnaissance flights in the WPAC. The US used to fly out of Guam for missions but that ended in 1971.

[HURAKAN]

Does anyone know if any countries in this region fly recon missions into West Pac. storms? Especially the Super Typhoons? It seems we have a couple of them every year over there. I imagine there are great research opportunities all year round.

There are no reconnaissance flights in the WPAC. The US used to fly out of Guam for missions but that ended in 1971.

TOO BAD.

[vbhoutex]

we will never know for sure since there's no recon out there

.from ASLkahuna from post above.

[bevo]

even though it's a pure satellite guess, those pressures could be damn high. the same argument about estimated pressures being a guestimate could also be an understatement if that argument is to be presented as a truth (although that is probably not the case).

[bevo]

typo: pressures could be damn [u]low[/u]

[HurricaneBill]

I think the pressure is definitely below 900 mb.

[HurricaneBill]

Super-typhoon Tip's maximum wind speed was 165 knots (190 MPH) but it wasn't the wind speed that was so extraordinary, it was the pressure of 870 mb (25.69 inches). Also, it covered such a huge area that if such a storm were to occur in the Gulf of Mexico, it would cover everything between Guatemala and Kentucky, Mexico City to the Bahamas. Its circulation pattern was 1380 miles in diameter. Incredible!

Where in comparison, Cyclone Tracy in 1974 was only about 50 miles in diameter. However, Tracy was a very powerful cyclone that leveled Darwin.

[Aslkahuna]

that have hit Japan, TY Ida in 1966 derived a good deal of its landfalling intensity from the fact that it was moving at close to 60kt when it slammed into the Kanto Plain. In fact USAF forecasters at one Air Base there were so surprised by this that they discounted it and failed to give any warning. The Detachment Commander, Staff Weather Officer and Chief Forecaster were all relieved and sent back home as part of the cleanup. Ida was a small storm and accelerated between fixes and when the recon crew arrived at where it was supposed to be they found nothing. They had to fly north nearly 200 miles to find the fringes of the storm.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

I think recon in WPAC ended in the 1980s and not 1971 because I clearly remember copying and transmitting recon obs from the recon birds when I was at Clark AB from 1974-1979 and saw the eye data message reporting the record low pressure in Tip in October 1979.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

in November 1975 which held the low pressure record until Tip was also a very large storm. Actually for reasons I have often mentioned, I believe that June may have actually been a stronger storm than Tip based upon a much smaller eye and lower 700mb height and warmer temperatures in the eye but circumstances prevented getting an accurate dropsonde measurement of the sea level pressure. On the other side of the ledger, STY Rita in October 1978 was almost as strong as June but was very small in size.

Steve

[Anonymous]

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 90 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

[Valkhorn]

It's not historic for the WPAC.

A lot of people fail to realize that the Western Pacific puts the Atlantic basin to shame when it comes to tropical development. The Pacific is HUGE, and there's a lot of warm water and favorable conditions most of the year.