Dianmu Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
SupertyphoonTip
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 77
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 12:50 am
Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts

#161 Postby SupertyphoonTip » Sat Jun 19, 2004 10:15 am

It's not a problem with the radar, since reports from Naha have mostly been "light rain showers" so far. There are a few yellows and greens on an approaching band, however, and that should be the brunt of the storm for them.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#162 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 19, 2004 10:25 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SupertyphoonTip
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 77
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 12:50 am
Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts

#163 Postby SupertyphoonTip » Sat Jun 19, 2004 10:37 am

The SST's beneath Dianmu cannot sustain a 105-knot typhoon and it should pass the 26C isotherm in the next 18 hours. Then, it looks like it will weaken to a 60-knot tropical storm by landfall.
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6771
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: Dianmu to gain strength...

#164 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Jun 19, 2004 10:43 am

~Floydbuster wrote:The forecast has Dianmu weakening to 125 mph then getting back up to 135 mph, and then hitting japan as a category 2-3.....


Is it coming to Florida? LOL

I figure I would be the first of the season to post this question.
0 likes   

Guest

#165 Postby Guest » Sat Jun 19, 2004 10:44 am

Very nice indeed. Great work Chad.
0 likes   

User avatar
shaner
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 224
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Calgary, AB

#166 Postby shaner » Sat Jun 19, 2004 11:04 am

vbhoutex wrote:There are not hundereds of millions in Korea. Be that as it may the track, if it holds, and the strength, if it held(and it shouldn't as it gets that far North)will/would still affect 10's of millions of people who are not really equipped to deal with a "super" typhoon.
I meant in all areas this storm could affect between the Koreas and Japan. Even Vladivostok, Russia is home to 700,000. And even if the storm doesn't run over North Korea, the heavy rains from Dianmu's fringe would be devastating in that 4th world country.
0 likes   

User avatar
shaner
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 224
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Calgary, AB

#167 Postby shaner » Sat Jun 19, 2004 11:08 am

Image
It looks like it's just going to swallow up Japan.
0 likes   

User avatar
shaner
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 224
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Calgary, AB

#168 Postby shaner » Sat Jun 19, 2004 11:17 am

Yeah, but what a beautiful pic.

OSEI image of the day.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TampaFl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1901
Age: 66
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:23 am
Location: Tampa, FL

Typhoon Dianmu Radar Loop

#169 Postby TampaFl » Sat Jun 19, 2004 11:26 am

Good radar loop of typhoon Dianmu approaching the islands south of Japan :eek: :eek: :eek: . Thoughts and comments welcomed. P. S Cannot read Japanese :) :) .

http://www.imoc.co.jp/rdam/rd4_ljp.htm


Robert 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22659
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#170 Postby Lindaloo » Sat Jun 19, 2004 12:45 pm

Awesome! My goodness at the estimated rainfall!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2022
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

#171 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:22 pm

Fortunately, it looks to be weakening a lot. It may not even hit Japan as a typhoon.
0 likes   

User avatar
SupertyphoonTip
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 77
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 12:50 am
Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts

#172 Postby SupertyphoonTip » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:59 pm

Fortunately, it looks to be weakening a lot. It may not even hit Japan as a typhoon.


Agree. Satellite imagery shows a slowly dying typhoon, although it could still have a few very strong winds, especially near the center. The JTWC track shows landfall at 60 knots, not as much of a huge threat anymore.
0 likes   

User avatar
Aslkahuna
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4550
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 5:00 pm
Location: Tucson, AZ
Contact:

The Image

#173 Postby Aslkahuna » Sat Jun 19, 2004 3:21 pm

shows the telltale signature of drier and cooler air working into the circualtion which first began to show up two days ago as well as a dry slot working into the storm. Additionally, the IR signature is nowhere near as impressive.

Steve
0 likes   

User avatar
Aslkahuna
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4550
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 5:00 pm
Location: Tucson, AZ
Contact:

JTWC

#174 Postby Aslkahuna » Sat Jun 19, 2004 3:31 pm

is manned by a mix of Military and Civilian forecasters and with their relocation to Pearl Harbor, they have longer tour lengths. Additionally, some of those Military people have become and became in the past quite expert in typhoon forecasting, dynamics and analysis. In fact, the gust spread forecasts now used by both JT and NHC was originally developed by JTWC and they are the ones who developed the wind/pressure relationship for WPAC as well as several other studies including one on the extratropical surge that occasionally occurs in storms before they become extratropical.

Steve
0 likes   

Anonymous

#175 Postby Anonymous » Sat Jun 19, 2004 5:28 pm

She has taken in dry air it looks like.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2022
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

#176 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Jun 19, 2004 5:30 pm

Yea. I wouldn't be surprised if it was downgraded to a tropical storm before it hit Japan.
0 likes   

User avatar
SupertyphoonTip
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 77
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 12:50 am
Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts

#177 Postby SupertyphoonTip » Sat Jun 19, 2004 6:43 pm

Yea. I wouldn't be surprised if it was downgraded to a tropical storm before it hit Japan.


Well, according to the forecast, that's exactly what Dianmu will do.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#178 Postby Brent » Sat Jun 19, 2004 7:32 pm

cajungal wrote:I hope I never see a hurricane like that heading for the Louisiana coast! I could never imagine what would happen if a hurricane like Camille would hit the southeast Louisiana coast. You could write Houma and New Orleans off the map for sure! And if you did not evacuate far, far inland, you could kiss yourself goodbye.


Lili almost did that, except it was farther west(back near Intracoastal City and New Iberia). It would still have been devastating had it held it's Category 4 strength.

The best track for a catastrophe in Louisiana would be a major hurricane moving WNW, making landfall near the Mouth of the MS River then passing just south of New Orleans. You don't want to see that, trust me, ever, but something similar will happen one day.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
The Dark Knight
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 800
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:18 am
Location: Mashpee, Cape Cod, MA
Contact:

#179 Postby The Dark Knight » Sat Jun 19, 2004 7:42 pm

If I were in S. Japan, I'd be really, scared. Especially if this was my first typhoon.
0 likes   

User avatar
SupertyphoonTip
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 77
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 12:50 am
Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Dianmu weakening quickly, moving towards Japan

#180 Postby SupertyphoonTip » Sat Jun 19, 2004 8:18 pm

The pressure in Okinawa is rising fast after 5 hours of tropical storm force winds. Typhoon Dianmu (90 knots) is making its way to the northeast and losing strength quickly. It is not expected to affect Japan with typhoon-force winds, but up to 60 knots is still possible. There may also be heavy rainfall at times, but Japan is quite experienced with tropical storms and this should not be as big of an event as previously expected.
0 likes   


Return to “2004”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 20 guests