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HURAKAN
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TD 3-E In Thirty-six Hours Or Less

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 11, 2004 5:18 pm

90E. continues to get better organized by the minute and the NHC has posted a Possible Tropical Cyclone Formation statement (visible far below). I think development would occur tomorrow morning or afternoon. Let see what happens!

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#2 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Jul 11, 2004 7:01 pm

Cool. Glad to see some action somewhere. It's been 6 whole days since we had a storm!
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#3 Postby Aquawind » Sun Jul 11, 2004 7:21 pm

The models have shown development for a couple days. The circulation has been obvious and large since it left the SA coast. Invest-Noname-Blas..? The morning qscat still has a elongated low pressure like many other possibilites this year..but the overall rotation suggests it will develop..imho

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas14.png

Hopefully the next pass won't miss it.
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#4 Postby alicia-w » Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:14 am

Storms like that are interesting to watch. I hope it goes out to sea though.
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#5 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:19 am

We have a NRL NONAME... it's going to happen!! :D


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121008
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM PDT MON JUL 12 2004

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE NIGHT AND A DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH/RRG

$$
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TD 03E

#6 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:26 am

NRL Monterey has it listed on their site. Expect the first advisories to be posted within the next few hours from the NHC.

SSD has the Dvorak estimates up to 1.5.

Stay tuned.....
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#7 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:29 am

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#8 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:30 am

12/12Z

Tropical Depression Three-E
14.0N 105.4W
35 mph
1006 mb / 29.71"
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#9 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:36 am

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#10 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:40 am

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#11 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:02 am

Well... We're still waiting for the NHC is issue their first advisories on 03E.

The JTWC has issued this formation alert...

Code: Select all

WTPN21 PHNC 121330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC/
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 121321Z JUL 04//
WTPN21 PHNC 121330
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N2 105.0W6 TO 16.6N3
109.1W1 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MET­
SAT IMAGERY AT 121245Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.0N5 105.4W0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 14.0N5 105.4W0,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO
HAS BECOME WELL ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF
CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS DECREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 131330Z1.//
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#12 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:30 am

I presume the jul 04 in that message is a typo or is it justMonday morning and I am missing something?

Don't get me wrong, it is pretty obvious we will have a TC within 24 hours in the EPAC, if not 12, but that Jul04 in the message caught my eye.
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#13 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:33 am

vbhoutex wrote:I presume the jul 04 in that message is a typo or is it justMonday morning and I am missing something?

Don't get me wrong, it is pretty obvious we will have a TC within 24 hours in the EPAC, if not 12, but that Jul04 in the message caught my eye.



No, no, no.... remember this is a military message.

There time/date formats are

DDHHMMZ Mon YY

121321Z JUL 04

The message is stamped for 1321Z on July 12th, 2004.
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#14 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:37 am

Here it is...

Code: Select all

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on July 12, 2004

 
a large area of disturbed weather located to the south of Mexico has
developed considerable deep convection near its center this morning
and this system is upgraded to a tropical depression.

 
The location of the center is rather uncertain as it is obscured by
the convection.  The initial motion estimate is 300/09.  Most of
the track guidance models show a mostly west-northwestward motion
with the suggestion of a turn toward the west after day four.  This
motion is controlled by a mid-level ridge over the southwestern
United States that is forecast to be nearly stationary for the next
five days.  The GFS and other global models introduce some
uncertainty in the track by developing tropical cyclones both east
and west of this depression with the possibility of interaction.

 
Conditions are favorable for strengthening until about 48 hours when
the system should begin to encounter SSTs less than 26 degrees
centigrade.  The SHIPS model peaks at 49 knots at 48 hours while
the GFDL takes the wind to 55 knots.  The official forecast is for
the wind to peak at 50 knots at 36 and 48 hours.

 
Forecaster Lawrence

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      12/1500z 14.8n 105.8w    30 kt
 12hr VT     13/0000z 15.7n 107.4w    35 kt
 24hr VT     13/1200z 17.0n 109.5w    40 kt
 36hr VT     14/0000z 19.0n 112.0w    50 kt
 48hr VT     14/1200z 20.5n 114.0w    50 kt
 72hr VT     15/1200z 23.0n 118.0w    35 kt
 96hr VT     16/1200z 24.0n 121.0w    30 kt
120hr VT     17/1200z 24.0n 124.0w    25 kt
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EPAC Comes Alive, TD 3E is Here!

#15 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:40 am

Image

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on July 12, 2004

a large area of disturbed weather located to the south of Mexico has developed considerable deep convection near its center this morning and this system is upgraded to a tropical depression.

The location of the center is rather uncertain as it is obscured by the convection. The initial motion estimate is 300/09. Most of the track guidance models show a mostly west-northwestward motion with the suggestion of a turn toward the west after day four. This motion is controlled by a mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States that is forecast to be nearly stationary for the next five days. The GFS and other global models introduce some uncertainty in the track by developing tropical cyclones both east and west of this depression with the possibility of interaction.

Conditions are favorable for strengthening until about 48 hours when the system should begin to encounter SSTs less than 26 degrees centigrade. The SHIPS model peaks at 49 knots at 48 hours while the GFDL takes the wind to 55 knots. The official forecast is for the wind to peak at 50 knots at 36 and 48 hours.

Forecaster Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/1500z 14.8n 105.8w 30 kt
12hr VT 13/0000z 15.7n 107.4w 35 kt
24hr VT 13/1200z 17.0n 109.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 14/0000z 19.0n 112.0w 50 kt
48hr VT 14/1200z 20.5n 114.0w 50 kt
72hr VT 15/1200z 23.0n 118.0w 35 kt
96hr VT 16/1200z 24.0n 121.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 17/1200z 24.0n 124.0w 25 kt
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#16 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:52 am

Thanks for keeping on top of things Sandy. :D
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#17 Postby HurricaneLover » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:57 am

I knew this would happen :D yesterday the outflow was excelent.......well, is a shame that is a Pacific system and a FISH :grr:
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#18 Postby HurricaneLover » Mon Jul 12, 2004 10:03 am

yep, you were right :)
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 12, 2004 10:24 am

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#20 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Jul 12, 2004 10:50 am

senorpepr wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:I presume the jul 04 in that message is a typo or is it justMonday morning and I am missing something?

Don't get me wrong, it is pretty obvious we will have a TC within 24 hours in the EPAC, if not 12, but that Jul04 in the message caught my eye.



No, no, no.... remember this is a military message.

There time/date formats are

DDHHMMZ Mon YY

121321Z JUL 04

The message is stamped for 1321Z on July 12th, 2004.


DDDDOOOOOHHHHH!!!!!!!! :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops:
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