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Aquawind
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#21 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jul 12, 2004 11:20 am

Center still elongated..but deep persistant convection.. 8-)

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas14.png
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#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 12, 2004 11:21 am

This will be TS Blas but will it be a hurricane before it reaches cooler waters?.
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#23 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jul 12, 2004 11:26 am

I think so, BUT my forecast might be wrong. 80 mph seems right.
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#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 12, 2004 11:43 am

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

The MJO occillation factor has been in the EPAC for 2 weeks and now the real effects of it are being felt and in response activity has risen big time.
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 12, 2004 12:01 pm

Image
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Anonymous

TD 3E flat???

#26 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jul 12, 2004 1:18 pm

It seems to be somewhat flat on the west side of the system. Infact, I may lower my forecast depending on what happens tonight. 80 mph in 48 hrs is still my forecast. If the west side fans out, I expect a stronger system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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2.5 on TD3-E Tropical storm Blas forms

#27 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 12, 2004 7:40 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Ummm interesting the rise of the estimates of the winds to 2.5 35 kts after an outflow boundary came out earlier this afternoon.It well be reorganizing rapidly as deep convection is trying to wrap around the center and has the look of a tropical storm now so Blas has borned .See chart below that shows the wind profile of every T number.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:05 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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#28 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jul 12, 2004 7:51 pm

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#29 Postby CaluWxBill » Mon Jul 12, 2004 7:55 pm

Supercane wrote:TS Blas is official, per 0Z SHIPS. ;)

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04071300


Great so what will the next one be called hehe.
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#30 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 12, 2004 7:56 pm

Ok Rob thanks for bringing that news of the formation of the second tropical storm of the EPAC this season.
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:17 pm

NRL also verifies that you are right, they have changed the system from 03E.NONAME to 03E.BLAS. They have upgraded also the winds from 35 mph to 40 mph making the system a weak tropical storm in Saffir-Simpson standards.
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#32 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:29 pm

The estimate is not surprising as the Dvorak technique does not take into account outflow boundaries
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Official BLas is Here

#33 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:47 pm

Tropical Storm BLAS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Home Forecast/Advisory Discussion Maps/Charts Archive

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 130225
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 12 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE
WELL-DEFINED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERALL.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE 2.5 WHICH SUPPORTS 35
KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO
THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON. CONTINUED
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A LA
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE
TIME OVER WARM WATERS...WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. BLAS IS LIKELY TO SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...310/13...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE. THE MAIN ISSUE REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE GLOBAL
MODELS' DEPICTION OF ANOTHER VORTEX TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BLAS.
THIS SECONDARY VORTEX...IF IT EXISTS...APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN
THE MODELS' INITIALIZATION. IF THAT IS TRUE THEN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MAY BE INFLUENCED BY AN ARTIFICIAL FUJIWHARA-TYPE
INTERACTION WITH THE SECONDARY VORTEX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...CLOSER TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL EXPECTATION.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT BLAS IS A
LARGER-THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE 120 N MI WIND RADII MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 16.8N 108.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 110.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.6N 112.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 22.0N 116.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 24.0N 123.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
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#34 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:48 pm

My apology for double posting....E PAC alive
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#35 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:54 pm

CaluWxBill wrote:
Supercane wrote:TS Blas is official, per 0Z SHIPS. ;)

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04071300


Great so what will the next one be called hehe.


The next name on the EPAC list is Celia.
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Derek Ortt

Blas forecast

#36 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:55 pm

http://www.nwhhc.com/epac032004forecast.html


passing south of cabo, though may be close enough to bring some rain there
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 12, 2004 10:28 pm

Image
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cycloneye
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Will Tropical Storm Blas reach hurricane status?

#38 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 13, 2004 6:08 am

Yesterday I thought that it would not reach hurricane status because it was not well organized but the overnight organization has been very rapid and now I believe it will make it although a close call but for a short period as cooler waters will begin to weaken it.
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#39 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jul 13, 2004 6:23 am

I think it might hit hurricane status just before hitting the cooler waters. We'll see...
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Anonymous

#40 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jul 13, 2004 6:31 am

I think it will hit cooler water just before making hurricane status.
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