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Thunder44
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#61 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jul 13, 2004 3:48 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:Just out of curiousity, can a hurricane recover from dry air or is it pretty much the "kiss of death"?

I know Isabel and Allen were victims of dry air.


Yeah, but this storm is moving over colder water now. So that will further weaken it.
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#62 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jul 13, 2004 4:15 pm

Yes, my forecast failed. :(
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Andrew92
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#63 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Jul 13, 2004 4:27 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Yes, my forecast failed. :(


It hasn't yet....who knows? These things can have a mind of their own sometimes. Sure it will probably not become a hurricane, but that doesn't mean it won't unexpectedly do so.

-Andrew92
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#64 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jul 13, 2004 4:32 pm

True. Good forecats for my first though. It almost hit 80 mph. I think it did go up to 70 at one point they even said at 11am that 60 mph might be conservative.
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#65 Postby lilbump3000 » Tue Jul 13, 2004 4:37 pm

Correction floyd, it never got up to 70mph. They said that 50kts may be a little to conservative. Which means it probably was at 60mph at one point.

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
CENTER MAY BE BETTER INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST THAN AT
THE TIME OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO 50 KT MAY BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE.
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kevin

wow!

#66 Postby kevin » Tue Jul 13, 2004 5:09 pm

lots of threads about a storm in the EPAC. I wonder how much we'll get when things get hairy in the atlantic? Don't get down about bust forecasts, we get to guess and not risk the lives of hundreds.. the grace of being an amateur. :)

With every storm comes new perspectives.
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chadtm80
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30 Frame Loop of Blas from today

#67 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Jul 13, 2004 5:18 pm

Been saving Blas images and looped them together for everyone.. Forgive me on the colors.. I saved in the wrong format, but I actually like the new colors.. lol :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops:


Image
Last edited by chadtm80 on Tue Jul 13, 2004 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Thunder44
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#68 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jul 13, 2004 5:18 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:Correction floyd, it never got up to 70mph. They said that 50kts may be a little to conservative. Which means it probably was at 60mph at one point.

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
CENTER MAY BE BETTER INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST THAN AT
THE TIME OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO 50 KT MAY BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE.


What are you exactly are you correcting him for? They were saying that keeping the storm at 50knts from the last advisory, which is about 60 mph, may have been too low.
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Re: 30 Frame Loop of Blas from today

#69 Postby CaluWxBill » Tue Jul 13, 2004 5:24 pm

chadtm80 wrote:Been saving Blas images and looped them together for everyone.. Forgive me on the colors.. I saved in the wrong format :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops:


Awesome loop. Actually I like the colors lol. I was just trying to figure out where you got the pics from.
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#70 Postby The Dark Knight » Tue Jul 13, 2004 5:30 pm

Probably won't......
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#71 Postby The Dark Knight » Tue Jul 13, 2004 5:32 pm

Ya man, great loop!!!!!! Really......
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#72 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 13, 2004 5:55 pm

At my lead post I said it was going to be a close call but as it moved more quicker than expected it began this afternoon to be invaded by dry air and feel cooler waters.

It wont get to hurricane status as it has peaked and from now the weakening trend is starting by looking at the images less deep convection than this morning.
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Goodbye, Blas

#73 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Jul 14, 2004 3:17 am

From the looks of things, Blas will likely be only a naked swirl when I awake tomorrow.

Goodnight.
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#74 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Jul 14, 2004 3:19 am

Is that not NOAA?

On a different note, I fail to see the beauty of a tropical storm wrapping dry air into itself... and I can see beauty in just about all systems.
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TS Blas Blasted Away

#75 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 15, 2004 3:41 pm

Image
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The Dark Knight
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#76 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Jul 15, 2004 3:54 pm

Wow, the dry air is really getting to it.....!!!!
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#77 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 15, 2004 4:09 pm

"HISTORY OF BLAS; NOT VERY EXCITING"

Image
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#78 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Jul 15, 2004 4:11 pm

Nice structure. He's surrounded on all sides but the north by dry air.
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#79 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Jul 15, 2004 4:17 pm

Well it isn't really good for the storm.....LOL
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#80 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Jul 15, 2004 4:18 pm

The history of Blas was , BLAHHHHHH!!!!!!!
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