Celia Advisories

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My TD-4E (Celia) forecast...

#1 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jul 18, 2004 10:40 pm

I expect this storm to become a tropical storm. It has a great spin, but I am going to say 50-65 mph.
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TS Celia (04E)

#2 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:34 am

It will be interesting to see if this system makes it into the CPAC.

Code: Select all

036
WHXX01 KMIA 190046
CHGE77

 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E     (EP042004) ON 20040719  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040719  0000   040719  1200   040720  0000   040720  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.4N 113.2W   14.7N 115.3W   15.1N 117.4W   15.5N 119.5W
  BAMM    14.4N 113.2W   14.6N 115.5W   14.8N 117.8W   15.2N 120.1W
  LBAR    14.4N 113.2W   14.5N 115.3W   15.1N 117.6W   15.7N 120.1W
  SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          45KTS          52KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          45KTS          52KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040721  0000   040722  0000   040723  0000   040724  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    16.2N 121.6W   17.3N 125.6W   17.8N 129.8W   17.5N 134.1W
  BAMM    15.6N 122.4W   16.5N 126.7W   17.3N 131.2W   17.7N 136.1W
  LBAR    16.4N 123.0W   17.6N 128.7W   18.0N 134.2W   15.5N 137.6W
  SHIP        57KTS          60KTS          57KTS          51KTS
  DSHP        57KTS          60KTS          57KTS          51KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  14.4N LONCUR = 113.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
  LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 = 111.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
  LATM24 =  14.2N LONM24 = 109.1W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =    0NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
Last edited by senorpepr on Tue Jul 20, 2004 1:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:40 am

Image
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:41 am

Image
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#5 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:33 am

Tropical Depression Four-E
19/0600Z
14.5N 114.0W
35 mph
1008 mb 29.77"

Image
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#6 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:13 am

06Z model data...

Code: Select all

991
WHXX01 KMIA 190646
CHGE77

 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR       (EP042004) ON 20040719  0600 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040719  0600   040719  1800   040720  0600   040720  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.5N 114.0W   14.9N 116.0W   15.3N 117.9W   15.8N 120.0W
  BAMM    14.5N 114.0W   14.7N 116.2W   15.0N 118.4W   15.3N 120.6W
  LBAR    14.5N 114.0W   14.9N 115.9W   15.5N 118.1W   16.0N 120.7W
  SHIP        30KTS          34KTS          41KTS          49KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          34KTS          41KTS          49KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040721  0600   040722  0600   040723  0600   040724  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    16.4N 122.0W   17.3N 126.1W   17.5N 130.1W   17.3N 134.4W
  BAMM    15.8N 122.7W   16.9N 126.9W   17.8N 131.5W   18.4N 136.4W
  LBAR    16.7N 123.4W   18.0N 128.9W   18.2N 134.5W   16.3N 139.5W
  SHIP        55KTS          60KTS          61KTS          57KTS
  DSHP        55KTS          60KTS          61KTS          57KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  14.5N LONCUR = 114.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
  LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 = 112.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
  LATM24 =  14.3N LONM24 = 110.2W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
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#7 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:15 am

06Z model data...

Code: Select all

991
WHXX01 KMIA 190646
CHGE77

 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR       (EP042004) ON 20040719  0600 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040719  0600   040719  1800   040720  0600   040720  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.5N 114.0W   14.9N 116.0W   15.3N 117.9W   15.8N 120.0W
  BAMM    14.5N 114.0W   14.7N 116.2W   15.0N 118.4W   15.3N 120.6W
  LBAR    14.5N 114.0W   14.9N 115.9W   15.5N 118.1W   16.0N 120.7W
  SHIP        30KTS          34KTS          41KTS          49KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          34KTS          41KTS          49KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040721  0600   040722  0600   040723  0600   040724  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    16.4N 122.0W   17.3N 126.1W   17.5N 130.1W   17.3N 134.4W
  BAMM    15.8N 122.7W   16.9N 126.9W   17.8N 131.5W   18.4N 136.4W
  LBAR    16.7N 123.4W   18.0N 128.9W   18.2N 134.5W   16.3N 139.5W
  SHIP        55KTS          60KTS          61KTS          57KTS
  DSHP        55KTS          60KTS          61KTS          57KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  14.5N LONCUR = 114.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
  LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 = 112.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
  LATM24 =  14.3N LONM24 = 110.2W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
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#8 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:47 am

It's about time it formed..I thought it would be sooner..They mentioned it might pop overnight in the TWO yesterday.. 8-)
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#9 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 19, 2004 8:11 am

Code: Select all

417
WHXX01 KMIA 191257
CHGE77

 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR       (EP042004) ON 20040719  1200 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040719  1200   040720  0000   040720  1200   040721  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.5N 115.2W   14.9N 117.0W   15.3N 118.8W   15.9N 120.7W
  BAMM    14.5N 115.2W   14.7N 117.2W   15.0N 119.2W   15.5N 121.3W
  LBAR    14.5N 115.2W   14.8N 117.3W   15.1N 119.4W   15.7N 121.8W
  SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          41KTS          47KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          41KTS          47KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040721  1200   040722  1200   040723  1200   040724  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    16.5N 122.7W   17.5N 126.7W   17.8N 130.7W   18.2N 134.5W
  BAMM    16.0N 123.3W   17.2N 127.6W   17.9N 132.1W   18.6N 136.6W
  LBAR    16.4N 124.4W   17.5N 129.8W   17.5N 135.2W   14.0N 138.5W
  SHIP        52KTS          55KTS          55KTS          52KTS
  DSHP        52KTS          55KTS          55KTS          52KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  14.5N LONCUR = 115.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
  LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 = 113.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
  LATM24 =  14.4N LONM24 = 111.2W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
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#10 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Jul 19, 2004 9:14 am

Aww... no hurricane yet for the EPAC... just shy of hurricane strength, though.
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#11 Postby wx247 » Mon Jul 19, 2004 11:37 am

Looks like it is a TS this morning, though the latest advisory from the NHC keeps it at depression strength.
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 19, 2004 11:48 am

wx247 wrote:Looks like it is a TS this morning, though the latest advisory from the NHC keeps it at depression strength.


Sure it looks like a TS, but also the NHC mentioned that although there were some indications that the system had reach the mentioned intensity they were waiting for the visible images to be sure that they were not commiting an error by upgrading the system. I sure believe that TD 4E will become Celia in the next update.
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 19, 2004 1:30 pm

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#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 19, 2004 1:32 pm

3.0 SSD dvorak T number for it and that says it will be Celia later this afternoon.
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Tropical storm Celia forms at EPAC

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:14 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04071919

The latest run of the models show that they start at 40kts meaning tropical storm range so now at next advisorie at 5 PM EDT it will be upgraded.
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#16 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:16 pm

Hey, Luis did you notice that models also initialized 97L at 30kts? Does that mean we may have a TD at 5pm?
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#17 Postby kevin » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:19 pm

There will be no tropical depression unless they have confidence in a LLC. Otherwise it is a squally tropical wave. For the islands the difference is minor.
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:27 pm

Image

Will Celia become the first hurricane of the season? Stay tuned for the latest.
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#19 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:21 pm

I am now updating my Celia forecast to 60-80 mph. It is looking very well orgainized. My forecast of 70 mph may be slightly too low...
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TS Celia Looking Nice

#20 Postby Valkhorn » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:58 pm

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