Celia Advisories

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Valkhorn
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#21 Postby Valkhorn » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:07 pm

Thanks to whoever altered this. You're a lifesaver :)
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"CELIA"; Name Used in the Atlantic, in Use in the

#22 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:55 pm

ATLANTIC CELIA

The Atlantic Ocean used the name "Celia" three times, 1962, 1966, & for the last time in 1970.

"TROPICAL STORM CELIA, 1962"
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"HURRICANE CELIA, 1966"
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"HURRICANE CELIA, 1970"
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Hurricane Celia, 1970: Hurricane Celia was one of the most destructive storms to ever hit Texas, with damages estimated at $1.6 billion (in 1990 dollars). Celia became a hurricane on August 1 in the Gulf of Mexlco and intensified rapidly in 15 hours before it crossed the coast north of Corpus Christi. As it moved over land, spectacular damage occurred from a "cluster of high energy winds of short duration," (also called downbursts or microbursts).

The extreme winds raked across the residential and business areas in less than half an hour. It was estimated that winds reached as high as 160 mph for several seconds. During those disastrous seconds, incredible damage occurred at the airport and an adjacent mobile home park which was completely demolished. Fortunately, only 11 died in the Corpus Christi area due to the state of preparedness by its disaster prevention agencies.

After this, the name "CELIA" was retired from the Atlantic Hurricane Name List.


EASTERN PACIFIC CELIA

The Eastern Pacific has also used the name "CELIA" but they continue to use it since although it has been used for 5 times (including this year), no system named "CELIA" has made landfall in the Mexican or Centro-American coast. After all, it looks like the name will be used again for another time in 2010.

"HURRICANE CELIA, 1980"
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"HURRICANE CELIA, 1986"
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"HURRICANE CELIA, 1992"
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"TROPICAL STORM CELIA, 1998"
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"TROPICAL STORM CELIA, 2004" ( SO FAR )
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#23 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:56 pm

Ive been watching her as well..

Image
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#24 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:57 pm

I thought I recognized the name from the Atlantic. :)
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:06 pm

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#26 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jul 20, 2004 1:27 am

Code: Select all

426
WHXX04 KWBC 200528
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM CELIA     04E

INITIAL TIME   0Z JUL 20

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            15.0            116.3           285./ 7.0
   6            15.0            116.8           274./ 5.1
  12            15.1            117.7           275./ 8.3
  18            15.4            118.2           302./ 6.3
  24            15.9            119.1           297./ 9.5
  30            16.0            119.8           277./ 7.3
  36            16.3            120.5           298./ 6.9
  42            16.5            121.2           284./ 7.7
  48            16.9            122.1           295./ 9.4
  54            17.1            122.8           286./ 7.2
  60            17.5            123.8           290./ 9.8
  66            17.7            124.7           286./ 9.1
  72            18.1            125.7           292./ 9.8
  78            18.2            126.8           277./10.6
  84            18.4            127.7           278./ 8.8
  90            18.6            128.6           285./ 9.2
  96            18.8            129.6           279./ 8.8
 102            18.9            130.6           278./ 9.7
 108            19.2            131.6           285./10.6
 114            19.5            132.7           287./10.5
 120            19.8            133.7           282./ 9.4
 126            19.8            134.7           274./ 9.2
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#27 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jul 20, 2004 3:13 am

Code: Select all

950
WHXX01 KMIA 200646
CHGE77

 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL STORM CELIA      (EP042004) ON 20040720  0600 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040720  0600   040720  1800   040721  0600   040721  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    15.2N 116.9W   15.7N 118.7W   16.2N 120.4W   16.8N 122.1W
  BAMM    15.2N 116.9W   15.7N 118.8W   16.1N 120.6W   16.6N 122.6W
  LBAR    15.2N 116.9W   15.6N 118.5W   16.2N 120.5W   16.8N 122.7W
  SHIP        50KTS          56KTS          60KTS          63KTS
  DSHP        50KTS          56KTS          60KTS          63KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040722  0600   040723  0600   040724  0600   040725  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    17.4N 123.9W   18.7N 127.4W   19.7N 130.9W   21.1N 133.6W
  BAMM    17.1N 124.6W   18.2N 128.9W   18.9N 133.5W   19.7N 138.0W
  LBAR    17.4N 125.0W   18.4N 130.0W   18.7N 135.1W   15.1N 136.9W
  SHIP        62KTS          54KTS          44KTS          34KTS
  DSHP        62KTS          54KTS          44KTS          34KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  15.2N LONCUR = 116.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
  LATM12 =  14.9N LONM12 = 115.7W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
  LATM24 =  14.5N LONM24 = 114.0W
  WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   45KT
  CENPRS =  997MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =   70NM RD34SE =   50NM RD34SW =   50NM RD34NW =  70NM
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Tropical Storm Celia

#28 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Jul 20, 2004 8:28 am

I know everyone is realy interested in the carib system and I am as well.. But she dosent appear to be doing anything real quickly so lets take a look at Celia :darrow:



Image
Loop :rarrow: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html



Click Here For Storm2k's Tropical Storm Celia System Track page

Click Here For Storm2k's Tropical Storm Celia's Forecast Advisory page

Click Here For Storm2k's Tropical Storm Celia's Discussion page
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#29 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jul 20, 2004 4:25 pm

It may get only to 65 mph.
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 20, 2004 5:13 pm

You should have stayed with your 1st forecast, sometime the first thing you think is right.
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Tropical storm Celia almost a hurricane 60kts,70 mph

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 21, 2004 2:17 pm

TROPICAL STORM CELIA (EP042004) ON 20040721 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040721 1800 040722 0600 040722 1800 040723 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 120.6W 16.6N 121.9W 17.1N 123.3W 17.7N 124.7W
BAMM 16.2N 120.6W 16.8N 121.9W 17.2N 123.4W 17.8N 124.9W
LBAR 16.2N 120.6W 16.5N 122.0W 17.1N 123.5W 17.8N 125.3W
SHIP 60KTS 66KTS 67KTS 64KTS
DSHP 60KTS 66KTS 67KTS 64KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040723 1800 040724 1800 040725 1800 040726 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 126.2W 20.1N 129.7W 21.6N 133.3W 22.4N 136.4W
BAMM 18.3N 126.7W 19.6N 130.7W 20.6N 134.8W 21.0N 139.0W
LBAR 18.4N 127.1W 19.9N 131.2W 21.6N 135.8W 24.2N 139.4W
SHIP 58KTS 44KTS 35KTS 28KTS
DSHP 58KTS 44KTS 35KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 120.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 119.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 118.0W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM

The models initial wind profile at the 18:00 UTC run goes up to 60kts.The storm looks better this afternoon on sat pics.

Image
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jul 21, 2004 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#32 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Jul 21, 2004 2:19 pm

She's had somewhat of an eye structure fluctuating in and out for the past 24hours.
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#33 Postby Aquawind » Wed Jul 21, 2004 4:28 pm

Keeping a westward movement.. She is buying as much time in the warm water as possible.. :wink: nice little system..
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 21, 2004 4:56 pm

Celia could become a hurricane in a few hours, but it's small size is not helping very much.
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#35 Postby Rainband » Wed Jul 21, 2004 4:59 pm

Nice satellite signature :eek:
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My final forecast for Celia...

#36 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:32 pm

I hereby forecast my final for Celia. I am now forecasting 75 mph as a peak.
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#37 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:44 pm

Well, she made it. Sustained winds at 75 mph at the 11PM advisory. She's now Hurricane Celia.
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Celia Becomes Eastern Pacific's First Hurricane

#38 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:53 pm

Image
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#39 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jul 21, 2004 10:48 pm

Yes, but I have her peaking at 75 mph...
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HR Celia 22/06Z Models...

#40 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 22, 2004 2:04 am

HR Celia (04E)
22/06Z
16.4N 121.6W
W @ 7 mph
80 mph
985 mb / 29.09"

Code: Select all

107
WHXX01 KMIA 220655
CHGE77

 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  HURRICANE CELIA      (EP042004) ON 20040722  0600 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040722  0600   040722  1800   040723  0600   040723  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    16.4N 121.6W   16.6N 122.9W   17.0N 124.3W   17.5N 125.8W
  BAMM    16.4N 121.6W   16.7N 123.0W   17.1N 124.2W   17.5N 125.8W
  LBAR    16.4N 121.6W   16.7N 122.9W   17.2N 124.5W   17.7N 126.3W
  SHIP        70KTS          73KTS          71KTS          64KTS
  DSHP        70KTS          73KTS          71KTS          64KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040724  0600   040725  0600   040726  0600   040727  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    18.3N 127.4W   20.5N 130.8W   22.7N 134.5W   25.4N 138.6W
  BAMM    18.2N 127.6W   20.0N 130.9W   21.4N 134.6W   22.8N 139.0W
  LBAR    18.3N 128.3W   20.2N 132.7W   22.4N 137.7W   26.8N 142.1W
  SHIP        57KTS          43KTS          33KTS          25KTS
  DSHP        57KTS          43KTS          33KTS          25KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  16.4N LONCUR = 121.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
  LATM12 =  16.2N LONM12 = 120.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
  LATM24 =  16.0N LONM24 = 119.3W
  WNDCUR =   70KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   60KT
  CENPRS =  985MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW =  60NM
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