Celia Advisories

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Aquawind
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#41 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jul 22, 2004 6:29 am

Cool..I didn't think it would make hurricane. About the same time the first cane last year was..Hurricane Ignacio 22 - 27 August 2003 ..notice the letter "I"..plenty of early season action last year...
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#42 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jul 22, 2004 12:08 pm

I did it. Yes. She did peak at 80 mph. But, I have a 15 mph margin of error.
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Hyperstorm
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Poor Celia...The case of the first E. Pacific hurricane?

#43 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Jul 22, 2004 4:02 pm

It has weakened and become naked in a matter of only a few hours! Actually, I think this system was never a hurricane. Even though there was an overpass that indicated an 80-90 percent closed eyewall, the system was never all that well organized to be considered a hurricane.

We can remember that an eyewall doesn't always mean that it has sustained hurricane force winds in the convection. I have seen many cases in which tropical systems have an open eyewall, but are not yet a hurricane. Case in point, tropical storm Peter last year. (Actually I think Peter was a hurricane with what looked like an eye feature visible on satellite imagery). The convection with Celia was never really persistent as it pulsed on/off very frequently and the system looked somewhat ragged.

The dramatic weakening today might prove some of what I said, however there will be no way to prove anything I have mentioned without any actual observations.

In any case, the stretch without a hurricane in the E. Pacific this season has finally been broken, but barely...
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#44 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jul 22, 2004 4:24 pm

Barely alrighty..Without some real facts like Recon, bouy, or ship data it leaves room for error..Heck even with those facts there is plenty of room for error..It wasn't to impressive but that could be partly because it was tiny..I was not watching it enough to second guess 5 or 10 mph..Best tropical spin on this side of the planet in a long time.. 8-)
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#45 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Jul 22, 2004 5:10 pm

Looked like a minimal hurricane to me when it was upgraded.
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#46 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Thu Jul 22, 2004 10:41 pm

Man, Celia has taking a complete BEATING from the cold SSTs she's encountering. I looked at a satellite loop of her earlier this morning; man oh man what a difference a few hours makes :eek:
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#47 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 23, 2004 2:31 am

Actually, Celia is still over maginally warm enough SST's, and they only get warmer as she continually jogs WSW. If she were able to continue due W, she wouldn't ever really have SST's to worry about. Looks like dry air hurt her.. and it's still there. She's refired some convection tonight anyway, hopefully it'll persist through the daylight hours tomorrow.

Interestingly enough, GFDL takes her back to 70mph through 12hours, only to weaken her again... can't see much of that happening though.
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#48 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 23, 2004 4:05 am

Ah. The convection fades again.
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HURAKAN
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Who said Celia was over?

#49 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 23, 2004 4:38 pm

Many people though Celia was already gone when yesterday she went from a 75 mph hurrcane to a 60 mph tropical storm in a matter of 3 hours, then the sky crashed over her and left the system as a minimal tropical storm. But she looks to have started to do a nice come back. Let see what happens although her future doesn't look very promising.

Image
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#50 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 23, 2004 4:45 pm

hmmm.... interesting.
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#51 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 23, 2004 4:46 pm

I made a post about it last night. She reflared and fizzled again.. now she's back for a third time :)
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