Kompasu Advisories

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senorpepr
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TS Kompasu (12W)

#1 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jul 13, 2004 7:34 am

Should this receive a name before landfall, it will be Kompasu.

Code: Select all

WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130221ZJUL2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z0 --- NEAR 21.0N3 129.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N3 129.5E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 21.4N7 127.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 22.2N6 125.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 23.0N5 123.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 23.8N3 121.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 25.6N3 118.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 21.1N4 129.0E2.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 130530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TD 12W HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 12W IS EXITING AN AREA OF HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL AIDS DO NOT INITIALIZE WELL
ON THE SYSTEM OR INDICATE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 08 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 130151ZJUL2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 130230) NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0,
132100Z7, 140300Z8 AND 140900Z4.//
NNNN


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Last edited by senorpepr on Wed Jul 14, 2004 6:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 13, 2004 7:47 am

Oh no Taiwan again.
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#3 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jul 13, 2004 8:31 am

They've had it rough this year.
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#4 Postby Stormchaser16 » Tue Jul 13, 2004 9:30 am

Luckily this looks to be a pretty quick mover and weak(hopefully)......
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#5 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 14, 2004 1:45 am

This is interesting... 12W has received a name, but it's still only a depression. A few months ago system were nearly typhoon-strength before they received names........
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#6 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 14, 2004 2:01 am

Hmmm... this is interesting.

The JTWC has Kompasu as a 30KT depression.

The JMA, who normally runs lower than the JTWC due to the whole 10-min vs 1-min deal, is reporting a 40KT storm.

JMA wrote:WTPQ20 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0409 KOMPASU (0409)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 21.3N 122.8E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 22.6N 119.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 160600UTC 24.0N 117.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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#7 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 14, 2004 4:19 am

Image
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#8 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 14, 2004 6:36 am

JTWC has upgraded Kompasu to a tropical storm.

JTWC... 40 mph TS
JMA... 45 mph TS
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 14, 2004 10:01 am

It looks like the system has jugged southward and now is going to pass well south of Taiwan between the mentioned nation and the Phillippines. The system is forecast to end up in 48 hours making landfall in China.
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#10 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 14, 2004 10:03 am

Sure enough... WSW at 20mph now. It will be interesting to see, with this slight southward shift, if the track ends up closer to Hong Kong.
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Hong Kong Menaced By TS Kompasu

#11 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 15, 2004 3:53 pm

Image

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Bulletin issued at 03:45 HKT 16/Jul/2004
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN

HERE IS THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN EFFECT AND THE STANDBY SIGNAL, NO. 1 IS IN FORCE.

THIS MEANS THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW CENTRED WITHIN ABOUT 800 KILOMETRES OF HONG KONG MAY AFFECT US.

AT 4 A.M. THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KOMPASU WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 200 KILOMETRES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG (NEAR 21.4 DEGREES NORTH 115.8 DEGREES EAST) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 KILOMETRES PER HOUR TOWARDS GUANGDONG.
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#12 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Jul 15, 2004 4:01 pm

That's pretty close!!!!!!!........
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TS Kompasu making landfall on Hong Kong

#13 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 15, 2004 10:06 pm

Image

Image

Image
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Link for Hong Kong obs.

#14 Postby Dave C » Thu Jul 15, 2004 10:07 pm

Tropical storm to landfall near Hong Kong...
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/VHHH.html
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#15 Postby FWBHurricane » Thu Jul 15, 2004 10:27 pm

He looks like a healthy looking Tropical Storm but only has 45mph winds. Not enough to panic about but its going to bring alot of rain to Hong Kong...flooding in the harbor.
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 15, 2004 10:41 pm

FWBHurricane wrote:He looks like a healthy looking Tropical Storm but only has 45mph winds. Not enough to panic about but its going to bring alot of rain to Hong Kong...flooding in the harbor.


Looks good here! :lol:

Image

Image

Image
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