Darby Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

TD 5-E forms, Darby looks to be in the near future

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 26, 2004 3:50 pm

Image

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on July 26, 2004


Visible satellite images show that the tropical disturbance well to the south of Cabo San Lucas has a reasonably well-defined low-level circulation...and deep convective banding is also becoming more evident over the western portion of the system. Thus advisories are being initiated at this time. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move over warm waters and both water vapor imagery and global model guidance indicate that the vertical shear will remain low.
Strengthening is forecast in close agreement with ships.
Because the center is not yet well defined...there is a fair amount of scatter in location estimates. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/11...which is close to the climatological mean for The Basin. The track forecast assumes that a mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone will dominate the steering. The NHC track is fairly close to that shown by the NCEP GFS model.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/2100z 12.5n 114.8w 30 kt
12hr VT 27/0600z 12.9n 116.5w 35 kt
24hr VT 27/1800z 13.5n 118.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 28/0600z 14.0n 120.7w 45 kt
48hr VT 28/1800z 14.5n 122.6w 50 kt
72hr VT 29/1800z 15.0n 126.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 30/1800z 15.5n 130.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 31/1800z 16.0n 133.5w 60 kt
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#2 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 26, 2004 4:05 pm

Nobody really cares because it's not in the Atlantic. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
The Dark Knight
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 800
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:18 am
Location: Mashpee, Cape Cod, MA
Contact:

#3 Postby The Dark Knight » Mon Jul 26, 2004 4:06 pm

Hmmm.........
0 likes   

User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1523
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#4 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Jul 26, 2004 4:10 pm

I'd care if it either had potential to become a powerful hurricane, or potential to hit land. These weak TS fishes bore me.
0 likes   

hurricanefreak1988
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 869
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 10:13 pm
Location: Fayetteville, NC
Contact:

#5 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Mon Jul 26, 2004 4:10 pm

Well, I'm not feeling so bad even though it's now 5-0. I looked at the archives from the last few years, and I noticed we've been down as much as 8-2, and came back to either lose by 1 at season's end or actually WIN. And considering that the E-pac usually quiets down when we heat up, it's definitely not over. Expect a HUGE August rally :D
0 likes   

User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#6 Postby Swimdude » Mon Jul 26, 2004 4:37 pm

Ah yes... Another one in the Pacific. Although we've come to expect that.

The peck of hurricane season in the E. Pacific is actually during late July through August. Not September, as is the case in the Atlantic.
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12512
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#7 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 26, 2004 4:46 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Nobody really cares because it's not in the Atlantic. :lol:


Some people actually do care.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 26, 2004 6:25 pm

people sure do care about epac storms. In fact, the day nwhhc had the most hits was for the landfall of Hurricane Marty and ther eare numerous hits to the epac active storms pages, so yes, there is an interest
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1878
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

#9 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Jul 26, 2004 6:40 pm

Darby maybe, but Estelle could be right around the corner too. 94E is looking a little better...
0 likes   

lilbump3000
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:

#10 Postby lilbump3000 » Mon Jul 26, 2004 7:27 pm

The eastern pacific is catching up on there storms after a late start.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114570
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Darby forms at EPAC

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 26, 2004 8:15 pm

Image

The fourth storm of the EPAC season has formed tonight.But no threat to land as it is moving away from the Mexican coast.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Jul 26, 2004 8:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12512
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#12 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 26, 2004 8:19 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1878
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

#13 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Jul 26, 2004 8:52 pm

Cool! We'll see how strong it gets. I wonder when the EPAC will get a Major Hurricane. The last one was Hurricane Kenna of October 2002, or almost 21 months without a major hurricane there!
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12512
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#14 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 26, 2004 8:53 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:Cool! We'll see how strong it gets. I wonder when the EPAC will get a Major Hurricane. The last one was Hurricane Kenna of October 2002, or almost 21 months without a major hurricane there!


Huh... I wasn't aware of that. Thanks for passing it along.
0 likes   

HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3421
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

#15 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Jul 26, 2004 10:58 pm

EPAC storms can be just as dangerous as Atlantic storms.

Destructive EPAC storms:

1959 Category 5 hurricane struck Mexico killing 1000

1967 Category 1 Hurricane Katrina maintains hurricane status into Arizona.

1976 Category 4 Hurricane Liza struck La Paz, Mexico causing a dam to collapse and kill 630.

1976 Category 4 Hurricane Madeline struck as a Category 4. Not much info on the internet about Madeline.

1995 Category 1 Hurricane Ismael kills 100 in Mexico.

1997 Hurricane Pauline makes landfall on Acapulco as a Category 4. Up to 400 killed.

2002 Hurricane Kenna strikes Mexico as a Category 4, killing 4 people.
0 likes   

weatherlover427

#16 Postby weatherlover427 » Tue Jul 27, 2004 2:18 am

senorpepr wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Nobody really cares because it's not in the Atlantic. :lol:


Some people actually do care.


Like me, because I live in southern California. :P
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114570
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Darby almost a hurricane=Will it be a major cane?

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 27, 2004 8:13 am

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DARBY (EP052004) ON 20040727 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040727 1200 040728 0000 040728 1200 040729 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 118.1W 13.7N 120.4W 13.9N 122.6W 13.9N 124.6W
BAMM 13.2N 118.1W 14.2N 120.1W 14.7N 121.9W 15.0N 123.8W
LBAR 13.2N 118.1W 13.9N 120.6W 14.8N 123.2W 15.7N 126.1W
SHIP 55KTS 67KTS 74KTS 76KTS
DSHP 55KTS 67KTS 74KTS 76KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040729 1200 040730 1200 040731 1200 040801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 126.7W 13.2N 130.6W 13.5N 134.7W 14.0N 139.1W
BAMM 15.0N 126.0W 15.4N 130.6W 16.4N 135.8W 17.5N 142.1W
LBAR 16.5N 129.0W 18.2N 134.5W 20.6N 139.2W 15.6N 141.6W
SHIP 78KTS 73KTS 63KTS 52KTS
DSHP 78KTS 73KTS 63KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 118.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 115.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 113.1W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 70NM

Will it become a major hurricane is the pending question.I think it may do so as long it mantains in warm waters and shear is minimal.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
alicia-w
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6400
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 2:55 pm
Location: Tijeras, NM

#18 Postby alicia-w » Tue Jul 27, 2004 8:20 am

I have no idea if it will be a major hurricane or not, but the imagery is certainly impressive enough now. Fortunately, it's heading away from civilization.....
0 likes   

Dave C
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 833
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:36 pm
Location: Middleboro, Mass.(midway between Cape Cod and Boston)

Yes!.........

#19 Postby Dave C » Tue Jul 27, 2004 8:29 am

If the center is under that CDO to the right of the feeder band, she should take off. After 2-3 days water temps should put a stop to her. Like that typhoon in the west pac. which is SE of Japan now, the excellant outflow conditions really spark quick development.
0 likes   

Anonymous

Floydbuster's Darby forecast...

#20 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jul 27, 2004 12:40 pm

This is tough. The NHC takes it up to 100 mph. One point for me was that last night in Teamspeak I DID say "I think Darby may get up over 100 mph." Since then the NHC has forecast 85 kts... or 100 mph. I am leaning more towards 105 mph at a peak. So I forecast 100-120 mph. I have 20 mph difference. So, in order to make it fair, I will forecast 105 mph....
0 likes   


Return to “2004”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest