WPAC: INVEST 97W

[cycloneye]

97W INVEST 140412 0000 6.0N 166.0E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 6.1N 166.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE
LLCC. A 112301Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A SHARP TROUGH WITH A 15 TO 20
KNOT WESTERLY WIND BURST AND 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS) AND MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED LLCC AND NO DYNAMIC MODEL
DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[stormkite]

Appears to be still in a open wave atm.

[euro6208]

first thing comes to mind is it's sheer size. It's huge!

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N
166.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST
OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. A
112301Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A SHARP TROUGH WITH A 15 TO 20 KNOT
WESTERLY WIND BURST AND 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS. A 120313Z AMSU-
B IMAGE REVEALS A HIGHLY CHAOTIC AREA OF CONVECTION WITH NO REAL
IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS) AND MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't know if this will really develop. It has been in an area of high vertical wind shear and may also be the reason why the models are having a lack of consistency. GFS develops this. In most their runs they have it remain as a disorganized area of low-pressure and at times, as a tropical storm. ECMWF, doesn't, at all.

If the MJO arrives, we'll see. It is currently over the Maritime Continent [South Pacific] and led to the development of a very strong, Cyclone, Ita.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

first thing comes to mind is it's sheer size. It's huge!

Yeah, it unusually large. It is really big that it fits the Philippines!

But, as of now, its convection is weakening. We need it to gain some organization for it to develop and wait for some vertical wind shear to relax. It is in between 2 subtropical ridges which is currently hindering the development of this system.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N
166.0E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.