Hurricane Ignacio at 2 AM PDT

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weatherlover427

Hurricane Ignacio at 2 AM PDT

#1 Postby weatherlover427 » Sun Aug 24, 2003 4:15 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003

...IGNACIO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...POSES A
SERIOUS THREAT TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE ON THE WEST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO SANTA FE AND FROM SAN EVARISTO TO LA PAZ.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

IGNACIO IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...
7 KM/HR...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MID-DAY TODAY WITH DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARRIVING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH MAKES IGNACIO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND IGNACIO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LATER TODAY BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...OR EVEN HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...22.7 N...108.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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JetMaxx

#2 Postby JetMaxx » Sun Aug 24, 2003 4:59 am

Yeah, and that forecast track is very interesting....

IF Ignacio tracks only slightly right of forecast, it could be a hurricane almost to southern Arizona...coming right up the Gulf of California...which is nice and warm. This could get very interesting in a few days...and could result in some very windy and stormy weather for the areas around Yuma, Arizona.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2003 5:59 am

Finnally the first hurricane of the EPAC season but it well may be devastating if it intensifies before landfall or in baja or in the mexican coast with those mountains there will be many mudslides and massive floodings.
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 24, 2003 8:06 am

JetMaxx wrote:Yeah, and that forecast track is very interesting....

IF Ignacio tracks only slightly right of forecast, it could be a hurricane almost to southern Arizona...coming right up the Gulf of California...which is nice and warm. This could get very interesting in a few days...and could result in some very windy and stormy weather for the areas around Yuma, Arizona.


A storm 6 years ago called Nora hit Northern Baja and went straight into Arizona (in Yuma)...If Ignacio tracks over the warm water of the Gulf Of California and parallels both coasts, without a lot of land interaction...Ignacio could become stronger than forecast and could get quite interesting in the Desert Southwest. BTW, SST's in the Baja are 30ºC in the Baja and Ignacio is sitting over 31ºC SST's currently.

SF
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#5 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Aug 24, 2003 8:52 am

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weatherlover427

#6 Postby weatherlover427 » Sun Aug 24, 2003 9:01 am

I will have to watch this as the AFD's in my area are talking about a E to SE flow for the next few days ... the forecast rrack for this hurricane is one that I will be keeping both eyes on!! :o
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