Subtropical Storm Ana Advisory Number 1/Discussion Number 1

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Subtropical Storm Ana Advisory Number 1/Discussion Number 1

#1 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Apr 20, 2003 9:46 pm

Subtropical Storm Ana Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on April 20, 2003


...Second subtropical cyclone of record in April forms to the
southwest of Bermuda...

the government of Bermuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Bermuda.

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of subtropical storm Ana was
located near latitude 31.3 north...longitude 66.0 west or about
110 miles...175 km...southwest of Bermuda.

Ana is moving toward the east-southeast near 10 mph...17 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next
24 hours.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km from the
center. These winds could spread over Bermuda later tonight and
Monday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...31.3 N... 66.0 W. Movement
toward...east-southeast near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST...Monday.

Forecaster Beven

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html
Last edited by chadtm80 on Sun Apr 20, 2003 9:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Apr 20, 2003 9:53 pm

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#3 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Apr 20, 2003 9:55 pm

Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on April 20, 2003



the persistent area of low pressure located between Bermuda and the
eastern U.S. Has shown increased organized convection near the
center during the past 24 hr. Satellite intensity estimates are
subtropical 35-40 kt from TAFB and tropical 35 kt from SAB. As the
cyclone is under a significant upper-level trough...the system will
be called a subtropical storm rather than a tropical storm. Recent
Quikscat data support the estimates...indicating widespread 30-40 kt
winds within 60-75 nm of the center and peak winds as high as 55 kt.
The stronger winds may be overdone due to precipitation...so the
initial intensity will be set to a more conservative 35 kt.
The initial motion is 110/9. The upper-level trough that Ana is
embedded in in forecast to move eastward. Additionally...the
storm is southwest of a baroclinic low near 39n60w. This
combination should move the storm on a basic east-southeastward to
eastward track. Guidance generally agrees with this scenario...
although there are significant differences in the speed of motion
along with some directional spread. The official forecast track
will take the storm down the center of the guidance envelope in best
agreement with the GFS and UKMET.
Ana is only the second known subtropical or tropical cyclone to form
in April...with the other occurring in 1992. That system met its
demise due to strong vertical shear...and Ana should do likewise as
the upper-level trough over it opens up and exposes the cyclone to
the westerlies. This is forecast by all large-scale models...and
the intensity forecast thus calls for Ana to weaken after 24 hr.
There is also a chance that a cold front associated with the
baroclinic low to the northeast may sweep into Ana and destroy its
tropical characteristics. Thus...the forecast of Ana surviving to
72 hr may be generous.
It should be noted that the forecast/advisory is provided in the
3-day forecast format of 2002 rather than the 5-day forecast format
developed for the 2003 season.

Forecaster Beven


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 21/0300z 31.3n 66.0w 35 kts
12hr VT 21/1200z 30.8n 64.7w 40 kts
24hr VT 22/0000z 30.3n 62.5w 40 kts
36hr VT 22/1200z 30.0n 59.8w 35 kts
48hr VT 23/0000z 30.0n 56.5w 35 kts
72hr VT 24/0000z 30.5n 50.0w 25 kts...dissipating
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ColdFront77

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA Advisory Number 2

#4 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Apr 21, 2003 3:50 am

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON APR 21 2003

...ANA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.2

WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA.

THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS
SOUTH OF BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...30.4 N... 65.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH
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