Tropical storm Carlos forms at EPAC

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cycloneye
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Tropical storm Carlos forms at EPAC

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 24, 2003 1:56 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03062413

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

This disturbance is rapidly organizing as SSD has classified it with 1.5 T number as the windfield is increasing and also it has ideal conditions aloft to intensifie into TD#3-E and later TS Carlos.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jun 26, 2003 1:14 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#2 Postby Guest » Tue Jun 24, 2003 2:12 pm

Well at least its something to look at while the Atlantic stays very calm.
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#3 Postby wx247 » Tue Jun 24, 2003 2:25 pm

This system continues to organize and will probably be a TD in the next 12 to 18 hours or so IMO. Carlos will follow soon after. Some associated is possible along the southern coasts of Mexico in the coming days.

I agree Ticka... at least there is something to monitor.
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#4 Postby Colin » Tue Jun 24, 2003 3:12 pm

Looks very impressive... I guess we'll have to watch this and wait for something in the Atlantic to develop...
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#5 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jun 24, 2003 3:36 pm

It's being impacted by some shear from the north at the moment, and you can even tell just by looking at satellite imagery. This will prevent significant intensificiation in the near future. However, it appears the shear will abait over the next 36 hours, which would put the system under a far more favorable environment. So, as long as the moutainous land of Mexico doesn't interfere too much with the inflow, steady strengthening is a distinct possibility as the week progresses. Should we see this become a classified tropical cyclone...a slow WNW to NW drift seems to be the most likely. Regardless if it develops or not, heavy rain will spread inland southern Mexico over the next several days, with the chance of flash flooding.
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#6 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Jun 24, 2003 3:47 pm

It would be great if Arizona could get some of the moisture from this tropical system!
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#7 Postby Guest » Tue Jun 24, 2003 3:54 pm

Yeah Tom - let's wischast it over them OK!!!!!
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#8 Postby Colin » Tue Jun 24, 2003 4:59 pm

It would be nice... but we can't get our hopes up only to get them put down.
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#9 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jun 24, 2003 6:15 pm

This system is a likely cane
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#10 Postby Colin » Tue Jun 24, 2003 7:24 pm

Wow, say it as it is, Derek! :lol: I agree with you... looks like a very impressive system, and will likely become a nasty hurricane!
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#11 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Jun 24, 2003 7:27 pm

The wind shear is pretty high not too far west of this system at the current time. It apparently is expected to decrease in order for this system to become at least a tropical storm.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Wed Jun 25, 2003 12:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#12 Postby weatherlover427 » Wed Jun 25, 2003 12:32 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM PDT TUE JUN 24 2003

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE DISTURBANCE COULD BRING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH
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#13 Postby Colin » Wed Jun 25, 2003 11:57 am

Interesting... they don't seem to think that it'll develop into anything further than a TD, at least they don't mention it. We'll see!
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#14 Postby wx247 » Wed Jun 25, 2003 3:53 pm

Very heavy rain coming onshore attm. Looks better organized this afternoon. Probably a TD soon.
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#15 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jun 25, 2003 4:05 pm

Convection remains moderate, though it will probably die down a bit this evening due to diurnal fluctuation. The outflow and inflow pattern associated with this system is very healthy to say the least. The only quadrant that is being restricted is the northern, due to interaction with the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Overall though, it's a well organized system. On another note, T numbers are now 2.0 (30 kts) from the Satellite Analysis Branch. With the surrounding conditions relatively favorable, it will probably become a TD within the next 24 hours. A TS is distinct possibility too, if it stays far enough from land.
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#16 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jun 25, 2003 5:09 pm

Model guidance suggests that we will see a curve northward into the Mexican coast over the next few days. However, the models also show most of the moisture dissipating as the storm moves inland.
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 25, 2003 9:54 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0232.shtml?

Well TD#3-E formed tonight and is going to be Carlos as conditions will be favorable in the next couple of days.
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#18 Postby weatherlover427 » Thu Jun 26, 2003 1:05 am

11 PM NHC update...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2003

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E MOVING SLOWER WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FORWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND THE SYSTEM IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.

AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.0 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...16 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THIS TRACK COULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...14.3 N... 98.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT.
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#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 26, 2003 1:15 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1731.shtml?

Tropical storm Carlos forms this afternoon near the Mexican coast and that is why the TS warning for portions of the coast.
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