ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 221530
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 31 20110822
152030 1927N 06801W 6969 03089 9973 +096 //// 065049 050 048 001 01
152100 1925N 06759W 6965 03089 9963 +100 //// 061046 047 049 001 01
152130 1924N 06758W 6967 03080 9945 +111 +093 056047 048 050 002 03
152200 1923N 06757W 6966 03076 9917 +131 +070 055049 050 051 002 00
152230 1922N 06756W 6980 03054 9903 +138 +074 054050 051 051 002 00
152300 1921N 06754W 6961 03070 9913 +120 +091 046048 049 049 003 00
152330 1919N 06753W 6954 03068 9879 +144 +069 030049 052 057 006 00
152400 1918N 06752W 6983 03023 9849 +163 +054 019052 055 073 001 00
152430 1917N 06750W 6956 03060 9855 +154 +076 023047 054 068 001 03
152500 1915N 06749W 6983 03022 9863 +142 +096 045027 034 058 002 03
152530 1914N 06748W 6957 03048 9850 +147 +087 042016 018 041 000 03
152600 1913N 06746W 6970 03027 9840 +155 +084 031011 012 034 000 03
152630 1912N 06745W 6963 03033 9850 +143 +087 046009 010 032 000 03
152700 1910N 06743W 6968 03023 9846 +141 +086 059006 007 029 001 03
152730 1909N 06742W 6970 03020 9847 +141 +087 068001 004 029 001 00
152800 1908N 06741W 6962 03029 9843 +145 +085 209002 003 032 000 00
152830 1907N 06739W 6969 03028 9842 +150 +085 169004 006 034 001 00
152900 1905N 06738W 6966 03034 9849 +149 +082 183012 014 036 001 00
152930 1904N 06736W 6970 03033 9874 +128 +096 209017 018 043 000 03
153000 1904N 06735W 6965 03045 9886 +123 +099 203022 025 049 000 00

[RL3AO]

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/00Z
B. AFXXX 0509A IRENE
C. 22/1730Z
F. 24,000 TO 33,000 FT

Any idea what this flight is about? Why an air force flight that high in altitude?

[HurricaneBelle]

Unless there is a dramatic change in the forecast synoptic environment, there is not going to be much room for any further eastward adjustments. In fact, I would not be at all surprised to see a trend back to the west at some point.

Agreed, I'm afraid too many people in Florida think we are out of the woods now.

Watch the models all shift back some west today.

We are in the cone by a longshot, all of Florida.

Not only that, but it was mentioned in the 11AM discussion that Irene is becoming a large hurricane, and even if the center passes east of FL, there may be a wide swath of TS winds that will still affect that state. Plus, it isn't as if she will be accelerating at FL's latitude, so there could be a prolonged period of TS-force winds which would certainly cause widespread power outages.

Hell, my power was out for about 8 hrs the other night from a regular summer thunderstorm.

[RL3AO]

464
URNT15 KNHC 221530
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 31 20110822
152030 1927N 06801W 6969 03089 9973 +096 //// 065049 050 048 001 01
152100 1925N 06759W 6965 03089 9963 +100 //// 061046 047 049 001 01
152130 1924N 06758W 6967 03080 9945 +111 +093 056047 048 050 002 03
152200 1923N 06757W 6966 03076 9917 +131 +070 055049 050 051 002 00
152230 1922N 06756W 6980 03054 9903 +138 +074 054050 051 051 002 00
152300 1921N 06754W 6961 03070 9913 +120 +091 046048 049 049 003 00
152330 1919N 06753W 6954 03068 9879 +144 +069 030049 052 057 006 00
152400 1918N 06752W 6983 03023 9849 +163 +054 019052 055 073 001 00
152430 1917N 06750W 6956 03060 9855 +154 +076 023047 054 068 001 03
152500 1915N 06749W 6983 03022 9863 +142 +096 045027 034 058 002 03
152530 1914N 06748W 6957 03048 9850 +147 +087 042016 018 041 000 03
152600 1913N 06746W 6970 03027 9840 +155 +084 031011 012 034 000 03
152630 1912N 06745W 6963 03033 9850 +143 +087 046009 010 032 000 03
152700 1910N 06743W 6968 03023 9846 +141 +086 059006 007 029 001 03
152730 1909N 06742W 6970 03020 9847 +141 +087 068001 004 029 001 00
152800 1908N 06741W 6962 03029 9843 +145 +085 209002 003 032 000 00
152830 1907N 06739W 6969 03028 9842 +150 +085 169004 006 034 001 00
152900 1905N 06738W 6966 03034 9849 +149 +082 183012 014 036 001 00
152930 1904N 06736W 6970 03033 9874 +128 +096 209017 018 043 000 03
153000 1904N 06735W 6965 03045 9886 +123 +099 203022 025 049 000 00
$$
;

[capepoint]

IMO, very odd track to go from 25N almost due N to SC w/o the traditional curve back towards the NE as the system approaches the Carolinas? Just not buying this track, most of those models show the NE movement near the Carolinas, but not the NHC track? Likely will trend farther E with time, odd to me.

Isabel didn't curve back at all, so it has past precedence.

Yes, Isabel did curve northeast, it just did it so late that the western eyewall raked the NC coast from Cape Fear to Hatteras. While never officially making landfall, the slow movement lead to major damage in SE NC. It was however moving northeast, right along the coast.

[GCANE]

That TUTT to the east is really shaping up and doing an outstanding job developing Irene's outflow channel.

This is like watching a WPAC monster forming.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... zoom=&time

[SouthFloridawx]

Time: 15:28:30Z
Coordinates: 19.1167N 67.65W
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 984.2 mb (~ 29.06 inHg)

[Battlebrick]

PRESSURE: 984 MB

WHAT

that's a 4-5 mb drop..

[Blown Away]

IMO, very odd track to go from 25N almost due N to SC w/o the traditional curve back towards the NE as the system approaches the Carolinas? Just not buying this track, most of those models show the NE movement near the Carolinas, but not the NHC track? Likely will trend farther E with time, odd to me.

Isabel didn't curve back at all, so it has past precedence.

Yes, Isabel did curve northeast, it just did it so late that the western eyewall raked the NC coast from Cape Fear to Hatteras. While never officially making landfall, the slow movement lead to major damage in SE NC. It was however moving northeast, right along the coast.

Isabel's track is not close at all what the NHC has Irene doing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Isabel_2003_track.png

[Sanibel]

It went right once again. I suppose this discounts GFDL since it is still sending Irene over Hispaniola.


NHC is finally catching on to the Hugo II intensity potential of this.


I don't think I've ever seen a track like this since I've been watching. A slightly stronger High makes all the difference.

[RL3AO]

799
UZNT13 KNHC 221538
XXAA 72157 99193 70678 04397 99991 25802 04560 00584 ///// /////
92604 22804 07067 85344 22844 06554 70031 16459 02044 88999 77999
31313 09608 81524
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 13
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 1925N06789W 1527 MBL WND 06578 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 05555 990696 WL150 06077 084 REL 1928N06784W 152425 SPG 192
5N06788W 152737 =
XXBB 72158 99193 70678 04397 00991 25802 11904 22206 22884 23841
33850 22844 44810 21256 55788 24061 66711 18660 77696 15459
21212 00991 04560 11987 05559 22981 06084 33977 06090 44963 06079
55947 07079 66940 07073 77909 07065 88886 06554 99859 07051 11850
06554 22818 06059 33727 01538 44696 02043
31313 09608 81524
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 13
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 1925N06789W 1527 MBL WND 06578 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 05555 990696 WL150 06077 084 REL 1928N06784W 152425 SPG 192
5N06788W 152737 =
;


NW Eyewall - MBL 78 kts (.8 reduction) to get 62kt surface.

[RL3AO]

635
URNT15 KNHC 221540
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 32 20110822
153030 1903N 06733W 6970 03043 9896 +118 +108 201032 036 055 006 00
153100 1902N 06731W 6962 03057 9905 +108 //// 204049 054 056 005 01
153130 1901N 06730W 6967 03054 //// +082 //// 213051 053 055 008 01
153200 1900N 06728W 6977 03049 //// +073 //// 208051 054 054 007 01
153230 1900N 06727W 6965 03069 9963 +080 //// 204049 051 051 003 01
153300 1859N 06725W 6964 03076 9968 +085 //// 205048 049 050 003 01
153330 1858N 06723W 6970 03076 9978 +079 //// 200050 052 049 004 01
153400 1857N 06722W 6967 03085 //// +063 //// 197045 046 048 005 01
153430 1856N 06720W 6966 03091 //// +058 //// 194044 045 047 005 01
153500 1856N 06719W 6967 03093 //// +056 //// 197043 044 045 007 01
153530 1855N 06717W 6962 03102 //// +061 //// 193045 049 046 010 01
153600 1854N 06716W 6985 03078 //// +059 //// 187042 044 045 012 01
153630 1853N 06714W 6962 03107 //// +069 //// 188043 044 045 008 01
153700 1853N 06713W 6967 03105 //// +072 //// 188044 044 044 008 01
153730 1852N 06711W 6971 03103 //// +065 //// 190042 043 043 006 01
153800 1851N 06710W 6967 03111 //// +063 //// 188042 043 042 005 01
153830 1850N 06708W 6967 03114 0023 +074 //// 186041 042 044 009 01
153900 1849N 06707W 6967 03116 //// +063 //// 183041 043 042 013 01
153930 1849N 06705W 6967 03117 0036 +070 //// 181041 041 040 004 05
154000 1848N 06704W 6969 03117 0031 +077 //// 183042 042 039 004 01
$$
;

[fci]

quote="eastcoastFL"]

Well i can check out now. Im done worrying about this one unless something drastic happens. Best of luck to everyone in the bahamas and carolinas.

Sorry to sound like an ass, BUT YOU'RE STILL IN THE CONE.

They are forecasting a major hurricane about 150 miles east of you in 4 days and you're ignoring it? THATS INSANE.

What i mean is a can chill out. yesterday i was freaking out when it was basically making landfall right here. Now i think there is a slim chance we see much of anything from this storm other than clouds and surf.[/quote]


I REALLY do not intend to start a flame here, but exactly what preparations are y'all suggesting that eastcoastfl take?
What else beyond what you should already have done in preparation for the season do you recommend.
Certainly not putting up shutters I would think!
Batteries, propane, basic supplies I suppose is what you are recommending which should already be in hand.
Are we calling people "insane" due to their mindset?
Really??????

[mf_dolphin]

There was also a 73 kt SFMR unflagged.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 32:

[ozonepete]

Yes, Isabel did curve northeast, it just did it so late that the western eyewall raked the NC coast from Cape Fear to Hatteras. While never officially making landfall, the slow movement lead to major damage in SE NC. It was however moving northeast, right along the coast.

That is completely incorrect. Isabel never recurved and made direct landfall at Hatteras and then kept going northwest. There was a large extension of the Bermuda high into the northeast that prevented it from recurving at all. Here's the track:

[eastcoastFL]

Ive had the same supplies since 2007. Same 2 generators since frances. Everything. We haven't had to use anything since wilma so Im as prepared as you can get. The house has shutters. If its cat 3 or higher heading at me im grabbing my kids and hauling ass.

[otowntiger]

It went right once again. I suppose this discounts GFDL since it is still sending Irene over Hispaniola.


NHC is finally catching on to the Hugo II intensity potential of this.


I don't think I've ever seen a track like this since I've been watching. A slightly stronger High makes all the difference.

I believe that is why the GFDL solution is becoming less and less credible at this time. It continues to show Irene making landfall in Hispanola and now it appears that she will miss it altogether. You gotta figure once the GFDL incorporates the CURRENT location and heading that it too will shift significantly rightwards.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]
.

[maxintensity]

This thing misses hispaniola you can forget the east coast. I would expect a cat 4/cat 5 near landfall depending on eyewall replacement cycles. Expect eyewall replacement cycles to become a major situation in the coming days.

[pcolaman]

Seams to me that everyone is throwing out the gfdl and the nam models which both handle big storms and the troughs better . Just my thoughts . Why is this so ? why is the gfs being the major player when yesterdays runs had bad errors yesterday ? Any thoughts ?