ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

The 5pm track has an ever so slight west bend at the end, could be just a tease!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[SouthDadeFish]

I think Katia will easily reach 40 ACE in my opinion. I can see her running an intensity fairly similar to Igor from last year, just not as large of a storm. This is not a professional forecast, just my opinion.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the 5 day PP just updated on NHC, I compared it side by side to their previous estimate at their 11am PP. Seems they are favoring a slight westward movement around 63W.

Or just look at the archived 5-day graphic here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Jevo]

Does this thing have the potential to possibly reach Cat 5 strength for a short time? I know this is a ridiculous question given how early it is...but its been a long time since theres been a cat 5 out in the atlantic.

Without a doubt, Cape Verde hurricanes tend to be the most strong, this one has a unusual acceleration and strength with nothing much out there to degrade it.

Let me introduce you to Hurricane Wilma strongest hurricane on record (Atlantic) ..... heheh but yes CV storms tend to have better conditions to deal with



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[KWT]

I think the key in that forecast was this section:

"NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE PRODUCED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED."

They must have a certain amount of confidence in that set-up to have even bothered mentinoing it at this time range.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Does this thing have the potential to possibly reach Cat 5 strength for a short time? I know this is a ridiculous question given how early it is...but its been a long time since theres been a cat 5 out in the atlantic.

Without a doubt, Cape Verde hurricanes tend to be the most strong, this one has a unusual acceleration and strength with nothing much out there to degrade it.

Let me introduce you to Hurricane Wilma strongest hurricane on record (Atlantic) ..... heheh but yes CV storms tend to have better conditions to deal with

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/2921/track.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Yuck, That storm scared the crap out of me. Waking up to a 100mph Upgrade looking right at me on vacation in Cancun. We packed up within 4 hours and headed back to miami thank god. Of course she followed me back to Fort Myers.

[CronkPSU]

Looking at the 5 day PP just updated on NHC, I compared it side by side to their previous estimate at their 11am PP. Seems they are favoring a slight westward movement around 63W.

Or just look at the archived 5-day graphic here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

that is awesome...just checked the Irene graphic...landfall was outside the cone til Monday 11 AM and was on the outer edge til Tuesday

[Jevo]

Thats the one... thank you SFT and Gator

[meriland23]

For now, this storm is moving almost completely westward, I would not even call it WNW considering latest positions.

At 30/1800z, it was located 12.5N and 34.6W

Now, at 30/2100z, it is located 12.7N and 35.4W

[Jevo]

18z GFS Initialized (Not going to post another till its @ 50W unless something extraordinary happens)

[clfenwi]

For now, this storm is moving almost completely westward, I would not even call it WNW considering latest positions.

At 30/1800z, it was located 12.5N and 34.6W

Now, at 30/2100z, it is located 12.7N and 35.4W

Believe it or not, that does work out to almost exactly 285°, which is west-northwest.

[InstantWeatherMaps]

18z GFS Initialized (Not going to post another till its @ 50W unless something extraordinary happens)

Sorry for my site being down during the end of the 12Z run... the recent small service disruptions at NCEP were interfering with my map generation script (namely, I was getting empty inventory files by mistake). I fixed the problem, and from now on there should not be any download issues AFAIK.

[bamajammer4eva]

Landfall odds this far out are slim from Dr Bob

[Jevo]

18z GFS +60 (will update w/ 24 hour fixes after 72)

[Jevo]

18z GFS +72

[Jevo]

18z GFS Initialized (Not going to post another till its @ 50W unless something extraordinary happens)

http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/4053 ... msl000.gif

Sorry for my site being down during the end of the 12Z run... the recent small service disruptions at NCEP were interfering with my map generation script (namely, I was getting empty inventory files by mistake). I fixed the problem, and from now on there should not be any download issues AFAIK.

No worries.. I figured something had to have happened with the data

[MGC]

Katia looks to be a classical CV hurricane.....MGC

[wxman57]

Still looks like Katia will stay well north of the eastern Caribbean on Sunday. Nothing to indicate otherwise. And it will probably recurve well east of the U.S., possibly impacting Bermuda around next Tuesday and eastern Canada late next week.

[Jevo]

GFS +96 (slow moving once again like in the 12z run and in the Euro)

[Jevo]

18z GFS +120 (Gulf swirl showing up again)