ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

Bad kmz file on GE...working again.

[Buck]

Looking more like a western FL panhandle landfall Tue/Wed. Center is now just too far NE to be trapped by the ridge and shoved west.

Yes, that's what I'm thinking too. Everytime I've looked at the satellite lately (limited internet), I'm surprised by how far north it is everytime.

I'm in Port St. Joe (near Apalachicola) and in the TS Warning area. Just woke up and it's pretty nasty outside. Nothing worrisome, but unpleasant for sure.

[cycloneye]

Local statements by the NWS offices in the area can be posted here so go ahead.

[crimi481]

Keeping eye on new formation of center to come - more south and east
See where the hook should be?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[johngaltfla]

Looking more like a western FL panhandle landfall Tue/Wed. Center is now just too far NE to be trapped by the ridge and shoved west.

Told you to watch out for those center reformations

They'll kill you every time.

I don't post much but I do check in and read for info. This is great news for Texas we are out of it right? I will save my money and not buy prep items.

Totally off subject, but as of June 1st you had best already HAVE your prep items and all of your plans in place. After being through over a dozen storms trust me, you do not wait until your location enters into the "cone of death" (as we used to joke back in 04-05) to start buying storm preps.

[KWT]

There is your start to the shift. Maybe that trough will dig just a wee bit stronger than the Euro thought. Fascinating to see how much rain we have had here in 24 hours with just over 3.9 inches in 24 hours and it is still pouring.

AFM had it spot on last night, the center kept on 'reforming' to the NE towards the convection, the last few hours of daylight yesterday showed 2 such relocations and I dare say there have been a couple more overnightr for it to get to where it is now.

Its not the trough being stronger, its simply the whole thing has kept on shifting towards the convection which in turn continues to get sheared off to the east/north. Its like a game of chase!

[johngaltfla]

Recon found lower pressure than the 998 mbs at 5 AM advisory. Is down to 994mbs.

Yep...and it's also significantly more NE than the 4 AM position. Which is GOOD...because that is what I told the State in my morning update a couple of hours ago: That I thought the center had moved under the convection and it was significantly north and east of where the NHC position was.

We also have some convection trying to fire on the western side. Shear is lessening.

I've followed your posts for years here and let me thank you again for offering some well thought out posts and analysis.

[GCANE]

VIS

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS ... -x-x.x.jpg

[Javlin]

The outflow moisture is moving almost due west along the gulf coast now in that narrow channel between the ULL and the mid plains ridge. The LLC looks like it is spinning almost stationary near 28N and was drifting slowly in the direction of Mobile bay. Could make the turn more west and eventually even WSW when the ULL weakens and moves south. Probably be some flooding in Nola when the convection starts to wrap around the north quadrant.

The real concern is what happens at landfall further west with Debbie as a hurricane. Upper air flow will not be pulling any dry air off Texas just light moist flow from the southeast. Debbie isn't forecast to interact with the usual Texas savior trough near landfall.

Mobile,Pascagoula was kinda my thought earlier had not thought about dry air from the NW like most storms get Camille Katrina and such...

[northjaxpro]

Looking more like a western FL panhandle landfall Tue/Wed. Center is now just too far NE to be trapped by the ridge and shoved west.

I agree. The GFS may have nailed this after all. Still not etched in stone with the solution of course, but the GFS is looking very good and has performed well with initializing Debby to this point overall.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241217
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 16 20120624
121000 2633N 08643W 8428 01523 //// +165 //// 263041 041 031 001 01
121030 2633N 08641W 8431 01520 //// +165 //// 259039 041 032 002 01
121100 2633N 08639W 8429 01522 //// +165 //// 258039 040 033 002 01
121130 2633N 08637W 8430 01520 //// +163 //// 257039 039 033 002 01
121200 2633N 08635W 8429 01519 //// +165 //// 256040 041 031 001 01
121230 2634N 08632W 8429 01520 //// +165 //// 255041 042 033 002 01
121300 2634N 08630W 8430 01520 //// +166 //// 253041 041 033 002 01
121330 2634N 08628W 8429 01519 //// +167 //// 253041 042 032 003 01
121400 2635N 08626W 8431 01516 //// +168 //// 252041 041 032 003 01
121430 2636N 08624W 8434 01507 //// +165 //// 252043 044 032 003 01
121500 2636N 08622W 8430 01514 //// +169 //// 254043 045 030 001 01
121530 2635N 08619W 8429 01516 //// +168 //// 253041 042 032 002 01
121600 2635N 08617W 8428 01518 //// +169 //// 253044 045 032 002 01
121630 2635N 08615W 8429 01517 //// +172 //// 252043 044 031 002 01
121700 2635N 08613W 8433 01511 //// +169 //// 248043 044 036 001 01
121730 2635N 08611W 8426 01520 //// +175 //// 250043 044 036 001 01
121800 2634N 08608W 8429 01517 //// +174 //// 249043 043 035 001 01
121830 2635N 08606W 8433 01512 //// +172 //// 248043 043 036 002 01
121900 2635N 08604W 8432 01514 //// +179 //// 245044 044 037 001 01
121930 2635N 08602W 8431 01514 //// +181 //// 242043 044 037 001 01
$$
;

[WeatherGuesser]

I will save my money and not buy prep items.

Agreed with the other comment. You should not have to buy prep items at this point. You should ALREADY have them.

[rockyman]

Storm Surge hazard info was updated after the 7am advisory came out:

APALACHEE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 4 FT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1218.shtml

[KWT]

Funnily enough some of the ECM runs from last week had exactly the solution its doing now and then it got lost taking it into Mexico/S.Texas!

Still its not moving anywhere fast and the only wy I see any quick landfall is if it keeps relocating towards the convection. It does look like its trying to wrap somewhat now.

[cycloneye]

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
627 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTLINES...

...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES...

...A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY...

.STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF DEBBY IS RESULTING IN
LARGER WAVES AND SWELL MOVING NORTH TO THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA GULF COASTS. ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. TIDES 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL RESULT IN SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE ALABAMA NORTHWEST
FLORIDA GULF COASTS.

ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-241930-
/O.CON.KMOB.CF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120626T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120626T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0009.000000T0000Z-120626T0000Z/
LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL OKALOOSA-
627 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT
MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED WITH
TIDES 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

* WAVES AND SURF...BREAKER WAVES FROM 5 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED.

* TIMING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE
HIGHER WATER LEVELS WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY DURING ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING TO
ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF AT AREA GULF-SIDE BEACHES. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...IMPACTING LOW LYING COASTAL
ROADS. MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL EROSION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGH SURF THROUGH MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH
PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. REMAIN CALM
AND BEGIN TO SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE
FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE BEACH. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT. EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED QUICKLY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$


PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE TO SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE
NEW RIP CURRENT HAZARD...

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVE ... =RCVTECCHM

[northjaxpro]

Yes, Air Force Met hit it on the head last night with his post on the center reformation pulling in the LLC more to the northeast.

[Dean4Storms]

Winds gusting 25-30mph down on the bay and was surprised to see it already up a good 2 feet. That has me concerned because I'm only about 400 yds south of the bay and 1 mile north of the beaches!

[Air Force Met]

Looking more like a western FL panhandle landfall Tue/Wed. Center is now just too far NE to be trapped by the ridge and shoved west.

Told you to watch out for those center reformations

They'll kill you every time.

I don't post much but I do check in and read for info. This is great news for Texas we are out of it right? I will save my money and not buy prep items.

Given that I prepare...I would never tell you to not buy prep items. You never know when we will have another Humberto with 18 more hours over water to make it to cat 4...and hit Freeport or Galveston.

You should ALWAYS have the basics.

That said...I told the people I work for this morning during my 5 AM update that while I was not ready to sound the all clear for Texas...I was putting batteries in the bull horn.

As I mentioned back on here, I guess it was Friday, my biggest problem with the EURO track was not the dynamics of the high or the stall...and it wasn't the GFS scoring a coup (and for the record...it DIDN'T)...it was the center reformations pulling this system progressively more to the north until such a time it couldn't get shoved west by the ridge. Had this system been left alone...and not sheared...it would have been a Tx or Mex storm.

And the problem with this forecast was: While you can forecast the likelihood of center reformations (or center jumping)...there is no way to know how many times it will happen...when it will happen...or how far it will jump any given time. And each jump makes a huge difference in the forecast.

[TheBurn]

11:45 UTC RGB
Entire state of Florida under cover

[KWT]

AFM, what do you think in terms of strength, providing it stays over water for the next 48hrs how strong can it get?