000
AXNT20 KNHC 111801
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N57W 11N58W 6N56W
IN NORTHERN COASTAL SURINAME. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT
15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM
9N TO 13N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS TO THE EAST OF 64W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF 64W ALSO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N67W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
11/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.73...FOR GUADELOUPE 0.60...
AND 0.22 FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
WEATHER FORECAST. Bad time back tonight
franceantilles.fr 11.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189821.php
Martinique is already in yellow vigilance, Guadeloupe should be concerned as soon as this afternoon by the tropical wave and go yellow vigilance around 5 PM. Bad weather could affect the entire Department for several days.
The tropical wave that formed in the Atlantic, approach of the Antillean Arc. Martinique is already in yellow vigilance, Guadeloupe should be concerned as soon as this afternoon and go yellow vigilance around 5 PM. Heavy rains are expected in the course of the night, but the height of the phenomenon will concern us in mid-morning tomorrow and in the afternoon. The Department will be concerned with a generalized weather that may last for several days.
franceantilles.fr 11.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189821.phpMartinique is already in yellow vigilance, Guadeloupe should be concerned as soon as this afternoon by the tropical wave and go yellow vigilance around 5 PM. Bad weather could affect the entire Department for several days.
The tropical wave that formed in the Atlantic, approach of the Antillean Arc. Martinique is already in yellow vigilance, Guadeloupe should be concerned as soon as this afternoon and go yellow vigilance around 5 PM. Heavy rains are expected in the course of the night, but the height of the phenomenon will concern us in mid-morning tomorrow and in the afternoon. The Department will be concerned with a generalized weather that may last for several days.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139603
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 98L)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU OCT 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL AREA IS BETWEEN TWO TUTT LOWS...ONE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE OTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER REGIME UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND BE
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE FA REMAINS BETWEEN A TUTT LOW OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES
IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AND LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN A GOOD LOCATION TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AN "OVERALL" DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOMPASS THE FA AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BIT LESS COVERAGE OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN TODAY.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE CLOSELY
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ALTHOUGH WE ARE 24 HOURS CLOSER TO
THE EVENT...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED. NHC INDICATES
THAT THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT EFFECTS THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ON THE LOCAL AREA...IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT...THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ/TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 11/21Z DUE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...PASSING SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BUT MOSTLY
VFR. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT AROUND 15 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 89 / 40 40 30 30
STT 80 89 80 89 / 30 30 40 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU OCT 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL AREA IS BETWEEN TWO TUTT LOWS...ONE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE OTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER REGIME UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND BE
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE FA REMAINS BETWEEN A TUTT LOW OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES
IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AND LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN A GOOD LOCATION TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AN "OVERALL" DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOMPASS THE FA AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BIT LESS COVERAGE OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN TODAY.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE CLOSELY
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ALTHOUGH WE ARE 24 HOURS CLOSER TO
THE EVENT...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED. NHC INDICATES
THAT THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT EFFECTS THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ON THE LOCAL AREA...IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT...THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ/TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 11/21Z DUE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...PASSING SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BUT MOSTLY
VFR. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT AROUND 15 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 89 / 40 40 30 30
STT 80 89 80 89 / 30 30 40 40
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 98L)
Plenty of rain for the Leeward islands according to the HPC Caribbean discussion:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
DISCUSSION FROM OCT 11/00 UTC: A 500 HPA HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
TAMAULIPAS MEXICO ANCHORS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN USA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF DURING THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR
DAYS...WHILE ASSOCIATED RIDGE HOLDS ITS GROUND ACROSS THE
GULF-MEXICO. IT ALSO TENDS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 48-60 HRS. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS/INTENSIFIES...IT IS TO STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE CAP. THIS
IS TO FIRST HAPPEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND THROUGH 48-60 HRS IT IS
TO QUICKLY EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO-NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL SUSTAIN RAPID EROSION OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMAIN...THIS IS TO INDUCE THE SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN USA. AT 250 HPA THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH IS TO REACH CUBA EARLY THIS CYCLE...AND BY 54-60 HRS IT
IS TO DEEPEN INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH BASE OF THE
TROUGH REACH NORTHEAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BY 72 HRS. AT THAT TIME
A CLOSED LOW IS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS AS IT MEANDERS OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. AT 500 HPA THE BASE OF CORRESPONDING MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT OVER THE BAHAMAS EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...WITH AXIS TO THEN DAMPEN LATER IN THE CYCLE. AT LOW
LEVELS...UNDER INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE TO THE WEST...THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS TO MEANDER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
EARLY IN THE CYCLE...TRAILING ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE GULF. THIS IS
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BROAD
RIDGE IS TO ALSO FAVOR A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE OF 20-25KT ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS-CUBA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA-SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WIND SURGE IS TO TRIGGER A SHEAR LINE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS-CENTRAL/EASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA TO
NORTHEAST NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BY 24 HRS. THIS IS TO BRIEFLY MEANDER
SOUTH TO EASTERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BY 30-36 HRS...THEN START TO
RETROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST HONDURAS BY 54-60 HRS. AT 60-72 HRS IT
IS TO THEN WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. AS THE NORTHERLIES ESTABLISH ACROSS THE GULF/WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...THEY ARE TO SUSTAIN TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO-NORTHERN HONDURAS. OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY TO
AFFECT NORTHERN CHIAPAS-TABASCO-CAMPECHE THROUGH 36-42 HRS. ACROSS
NORTHERN HONDURAS TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. BY 42/48 HRS THE MAXIMA IS
TO INCREASE TO 30-60MM. SHEAR LINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THIS AREA...THIS IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-40MM BY
48-72 HRS. ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CUBA-JAMAICA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY...TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH 72 HRS. OTHER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY...WHILE OVER COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY.
FARTHER EAST...TUTT ALOFT HAS BECOME WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS IT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TO THE ABC ISLANDS/NORTHERN VENEZUELA. A LOW EMBEDS IN THIS
AXIS...CENTERING NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE COLD CORE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWING MODERATE
AMOUNTS POOLING ACROSS THE LEEWARD-VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO.
MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DECOUPLING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL AXIS...WITH
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING THROUGH 48-60 HRS WHILE SHEARING TO THE
NORTHEAST AS DIGGING TROUGH ESTABLISHES FARTHER TO THE WEST. MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE RESILIENT...AS IT IS
FORECAST TO INITIALLY CENTER ON A CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. THROUGH 48-54 HRS THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...REACHING THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN BY 72-84 HRS.
THE TUTT/TUTT LOW IS INTERACTING WITH WAVE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS...ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...WHERE WE
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY
THROUGH 36 HRS. THIS WILL INCREASE TO 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-150MM/DAY BY 36-72 HRS AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN. ACROSS
PUERTO RICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM/DAY THROUGH 60 HRS...WHILE ACROSS HISPANIOLA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. ACROSS
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD INTO
THE DARIEN IN PANAMA THROUGH 84-96 HRS.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
56W 58W 60W 61W 63W 65W 66W TW
71W 73W 76W 78W 79W 81W 83W TW
94W 96W 98W 101W 104W 107W 110W EW
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W CONTINUES TO FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE NHC CONTINUES
TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AND WILL ISSUE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AS IT INTERACTS
WITH TUTT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGE ON
HOW QUICKLY ACTIVITY IS TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WITH
EUROPEAN MODELS PROJECTING A FASTER PROGRESSION THAN THE GFS.
EVOLVING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS...AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT THE GFS MIGHT BE UNDERESTIMATING POSITIVE
INTERACTION WITH THE TUTT. AS A RESULT...WE PROJECT HIGHER AMOUNTS
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODEL. ACROSS NORTHEAST VENEZUELA TO
NORTHERN GUIANA/WINDWARD ISLAND THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. OVER THE FRENCH/LEEWARD
ISLANDS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-150MM/DAY. THIS BUILDS INTO THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PUERTO
RICO THROUGH 72-84 HRS.
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN WHILE RELOCATING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. EARLY IN THE CYCLE
IT IS TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. ACROSS
JAMAICA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY BY
36-84 HRS...[color=#0000FF]WHILE OVER PANAMA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY. MOST ACTIVE OVER NICARAGUA
IS TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT WILL SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 30-60MM BY 84
HRS.[/color]
AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 94W IS TO FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO THE CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO. OVER
OAXACA-GUERRERO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM/DAY...WHILE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO IT IS TO FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
DISCUSSION FROM OCT 11/00 UTC: A 500 HPA HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
TAMAULIPAS MEXICO ANCHORS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN USA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF DURING THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR
DAYS...WHILE ASSOCIATED RIDGE HOLDS ITS GROUND ACROSS THE
GULF-MEXICO. IT ALSO TENDS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 48-60 HRS. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS/INTENSIFIES...IT IS TO STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE CAP. THIS
IS TO FIRST HAPPEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND THROUGH 48-60 HRS IT IS
TO QUICKLY EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO-NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL SUSTAIN RAPID EROSION OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMAIN...THIS IS TO INDUCE THE SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN USA. AT 250 HPA THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH IS TO REACH CUBA EARLY THIS CYCLE...AND BY 54-60 HRS IT
IS TO DEEPEN INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH BASE OF THE
TROUGH REACH NORTHEAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BY 72 HRS. AT THAT TIME
A CLOSED LOW IS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS AS IT MEANDERS OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. AT 500 HPA THE BASE OF CORRESPONDING MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT OVER THE BAHAMAS EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...WITH AXIS TO THEN DAMPEN LATER IN THE CYCLE. AT LOW
LEVELS...UNDER INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE TO THE WEST...THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS TO MEANDER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
EARLY IN THE CYCLE...TRAILING ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE GULF. THIS IS
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BROAD
RIDGE IS TO ALSO FAVOR A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE OF 20-25KT ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS-CUBA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA-SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WIND SURGE IS TO TRIGGER A SHEAR LINE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS-CENTRAL/EASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA TO
NORTHEAST NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BY 24 HRS. THIS IS TO BRIEFLY MEANDER
SOUTH TO EASTERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BY 30-36 HRS...THEN START TO
RETROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST HONDURAS BY 54-60 HRS. AT 60-72 HRS IT
IS TO THEN WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. AS THE NORTHERLIES ESTABLISH ACROSS THE GULF/WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...THEY ARE TO SUSTAIN TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO-NORTHERN HONDURAS. OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY TO
AFFECT NORTHERN CHIAPAS-TABASCO-CAMPECHE THROUGH 36-42 HRS. ACROSS
NORTHERN HONDURAS TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. BY 42/48 HRS THE MAXIMA IS
TO INCREASE TO 30-60MM. SHEAR LINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THIS AREA...THIS IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-40MM BY
48-72 HRS. ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CUBA-JAMAICA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY...TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH 72 HRS. OTHER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY...WHILE OVER COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY.
FARTHER EAST...TUTT ALOFT HAS BECOME WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS IT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TO THE ABC ISLANDS/NORTHERN VENEZUELA. A LOW EMBEDS IN THIS
AXIS...CENTERING NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE COLD CORE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWING MODERATE
AMOUNTS POOLING ACROSS THE LEEWARD-VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO.
MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DECOUPLING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL AXIS...WITH
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING THROUGH 48-60 HRS WHILE SHEARING TO THE
NORTHEAST AS DIGGING TROUGH ESTABLISHES FARTHER TO THE WEST. MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE RESILIENT...AS IT IS
FORECAST TO INITIALLY CENTER ON A CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. THROUGH 48-54 HRS THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...REACHING THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN BY 72-84 HRS.
THE TUTT/TUTT LOW IS INTERACTING WITH WAVE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS...ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...WHERE WE
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY
THROUGH 36 HRS. THIS WILL INCREASE TO 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-150MM/DAY BY 36-72 HRS AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN. ACROSS
PUERTO RICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM/DAY THROUGH 60 HRS...WHILE ACROSS HISPANIOLA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. ACROSS
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD INTO
THE DARIEN IN PANAMA THROUGH 84-96 HRS.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
56W 58W 60W 61W 63W 65W 66W TW
71W 73W 76W 78W 79W 81W 83W TW
94W 96W 98W 101W 104W 107W 110W EW
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W CONTINUES TO FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE NHC CONTINUES
TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AND WILL ISSUE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AS IT INTERACTS
WITH TUTT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGE ON
HOW QUICKLY ACTIVITY IS TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WITH
EUROPEAN MODELS PROJECTING A FASTER PROGRESSION THAN THE GFS.
EVOLVING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS...AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT THE GFS MIGHT BE UNDERESTIMATING POSITIVE
INTERACTION WITH THE TUTT. AS A RESULT...WE PROJECT HIGHER AMOUNTS
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODEL. ACROSS NORTHEAST VENEZUELA TO
NORTHERN GUIANA/WINDWARD ISLAND THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. OVER THE FRENCH/LEEWARD
ISLANDS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-150MM/DAY. THIS BUILDS INTO THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PUERTO
RICO THROUGH 72-84 HRS.
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN WHILE RELOCATING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. EARLY IN THE CYCLE
IT IS TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. ACROSS
JAMAICA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY BY
36-84 HRS...[color=#0000FF]WHILE OVER PANAMA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY. MOST ACTIVE OVER NICARAGUA
IS TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT WILL SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 30-60MM BY 84
HRS.[/color]
AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 94W IS TO FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO THE CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO. OVER
OAXACA-GUERRERO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM/DAY...WHILE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO IT IS TO FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139603
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 98L)
8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook up to 70%
DATA FROM SATELLITES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE BARBADOS
WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
DATA FROM SATELLITES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE BARBADOS
WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
WEATHER FORECAST. Guadeloupe in orange for heavy rains and thunderstorms
franceantilles.fr 11.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189821.php
A very active tropical wave approaches the Caribbean arc during the next night, hence the passage in vigilance orange. Time breaks down during night, with frequent and sometimes sustained and stormy showers. This bad weather continues throughout the day and until Sunday at least.
A very active tropical wave approaches the Caribbean arc during the next night. Time degrades with frequent and sometimes sustained and stormy showers. This bad weather continues throughout the day with a significant strengthening of the south-easterly wind. Its average speed is around 35 km/h the next night and up to 40 km/h on the coast and on the heights. Winds gusting to 70 km/h are also likely close to the strongest stormy grains.
Furthermore, this strengthening of wind is accompanied by a degradation of the sea which becomes strong and dangerous, mainly on the Atlantic seaboard. No free improving conditions before Sunday at least.
The duration and intensity of the precipitation forecast on already wet soils can cause strong accumulations of water and flooding in places, as well as the rise of some streams.
franceantilles.fr 11.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189821.phpA very active tropical wave approaches the Caribbean arc during the next night, hence the passage in vigilance orange. Time breaks down during night, with frequent and sometimes sustained and stormy showers. This bad weather continues throughout the day and until Sunday at least.
A very active tropical wave approaches the Caribbean arc during the next night. Time degrades with frequent and sometimes sustained and stormy showers. This bad weather continues throughout the day with a significant strengthening of the south-easterly wind. Its average speed is around 35 km/h the next night and up to 40 km/h on the coast and on the heights. Winds gusting to 70 km/h are also likely close to the strongest stormy grains.
Furthermore, this strengthening of wind is accompanied by a degradation of the sea which becomes strong and dangerous, mainly on the Atlantic seaboard. No free improving conditions before Sunday at least.
The duration and intensity of the precipitation forecast on already wet soils can cause strong accumulations of water and flooding in places, as well as the rise of some streams.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139603
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 98L)
8 PM Special Feature Discussion
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED NEAR 12N59W OR ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
OBSERVED OVER THIS SYSTEM...AND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO
INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 110 NM NE
QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. BUOY
41101 LOCATED NEAR 14.5N56W IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO REACH A
POSITION NEAR 15N62W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED NEAR 12N59W OR ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
OBSERVED OVER THIS SYSTEM...AND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO
INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 110 NM NE
QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. BUOY
41101 LOCATED NEAR 14.5N56W IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO REACH A
POSITION NEAR 15N62W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139603
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ATL: RAFAEL: Aftermath reports in Eastern Caribbean
This thread has been made for those who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands from Trinidad & Tobago to Puerto Rico to post about Preparations/Observations and Warnings from the different Weather offices in the islands.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L: Preparations/Observations in E Caribbean
We had some light rain mixed with a few moderate showers last night but heavier showers are now upon us, with much more to come, judging by the latest satellite and radar imagery (source). We've also been getting occasional fresh southeasterly breezes . Interestingly enough, there haven't been any thunderstorms in my area. Actually, up to the time I went to bed (around 1:00 AM) there wasn't even any distant lightning.
Will keep you posted, as time permits.
Will keep you posted, as time permits.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139603
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L: Preparations/Observations in E Caribbean
Good morning. From the San Juan NWS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 AM AST FRI OCT 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
REGIME THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AFFECTING PARTS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND
PROBABLY PASSING NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TUTT REMAINS ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHWEST...AS EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ALSO LIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TUTT REMAINS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION AND WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST WILL BE DICTATED BY THE DISTURBANCE JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT
IS BECOMING A BIT MORE LIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WOULD
GIVE THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND THE WORST
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO
EASTWARD THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS STILL
NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED
TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE SHOWERS PASS NEAR TIST...TISX AND TJSJ THIS MORNING. THEN...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR BTWN 12/16Z AND 12/21Z. THIS COULD RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TJBQ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST TODAY...AT AROUND
15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE...
AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 70 70 70 50
STT 89 80 89 79 / 70 70 70 50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 AM AST FRI OCT 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
REGIME THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AFFECTING PARTS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND
PROBABLY PASSING NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TUTT REMAINS ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHWEST...AS EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ALSO LIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TUTT REMAINS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION AND WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST WILL BE DICTATED BY THE DISTURBANCE JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT
IS BECOMING A BIT MORE LIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WOULD
GIVE THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND THE WORST
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO
EASTWARD THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS STILL
NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED
TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE SHOWERS PASS NEAR TIST...TISX AND TJSJ THIS MORNING. THEN...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR BTWN 12/16Z AND 12/21Z. THIS COULD RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TJBQ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST TODAY...AT AROUND
15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE...
AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 70 70 70 50
STT 89 80 89 79 / 70 70 70 50
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139603
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 98L)
Good morning. To let know our Caribbean friends that you can post Observations/Preparations and warnings from the different Weather Offices in the islands at the sticky thread on Active Storms/Invests forum.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113923&hilit=&p=2279776#p2279776
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113923&hilit=&p=2279776#p2279776
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
knotimpaired
- Category 1
- Posts: 495
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 4:14 am
- Location: Vieques, PR
- Contact:
Morning Luis and everyone on this thread.
The NWS obviously cannot pinpoint if and when 98L may come here but Luis you are our Genie when it comes to predicting.
So Luis, I have a friend flying in from NY that is supposed to be on tomorrow's 2:45 PM Val flight and my step-daughter is flying in on the 6:50 PM Cape Air flight on Wednesday.
What are the odds that 98L may delay them in SJ?
As for prep we were great until last saturday when I thought season was over (stupidly) and had our workers remove all of our second floor hurricane shutters..Oh well, I guess the shutters will be coming back out
The NWS obviously cannot pinpoint if and when 98L may come here but Luis you are our Genie when it comes to predicting.
So Luis, I have a friend flying in from NY that is supposed to be on tomorrow's 2:45 PM Val flight and my step-daughter is flying in on the 6:50 PM Cape Air flight on Wednesday.
What are the odds that 98L may delay them in SJ?
As for prep we were great until last saturday when I thought season was over (stupidly) and had our workers remove all of our second floor hurricane shutters..Oh well, I guess the shutters will be coming back out
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
In Guadeloupe at 6AM one question is about the schools, open or close? There is a lull for now, but many parents wonder if the bad weather come quickly or not. Will time be sufficient to keep their childrens at school or not? Let's hope that nothing bad happens and the authorities will take the great decisions at the right time.
0 likes
-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 33
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN RAIN BANDS...SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STILL LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ... STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
Important snippets from the 8 a.m. TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN RAIN BANDS...SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STILL LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ... STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
Important snippets from the 8 a.m. TWO.
0 likes
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
morning discussion from Rob Lightbown Crownweather:
Invest 98L, which is a broad and large area of low pressure was located about 60 miles to the northwest of Saint Lucia this morning. Tropical storm force winds with gusts to 50 mph have been reported on the island of Barbados this morning and tropical storm conditions are likely today through tonight from Barbados to Saint Vincent and Saint Lucia northward through Guadeloupe, Barbuda and Antigua. Even though there are no tropical storm warnings in effect, please treat this as a tropical storm and expect tropical storm winds with gusts to 60 mph, heavy rainfall with flash flooding and sea heights of up to 12 to 16 feet.
On Saturday, this system which I think by that time will be named Tropical Storm Rafael will track northwestward over the eastern Caribbean and tropical storm conditions will continue to impact much of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday with tropical storm conditions spreading across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by early Saturday morning and continuing throughout Saturday and likely right into Sunday. So, for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, expect tropical storm force winds with gusts to 60 to 70 mph, heavy rainfall with flash flooding and sea heights of up to 15 feet.
I do think that the center of Rafael will track right over Puerto Rico by early Sunday morning and then track slowly northwestward and northward from there. The weather is likely not to improve for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles until Monday.
So, bottom line is that all of the Lesser Antilles will be raked pretty hard by Invest 98L/Rafael from today to possibly Monday morning and that Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will also be raked pretty hard from Saturday to Monday morning.
Finally, this system may end up impacting Bermuda as a hurricane right around Tuesday into Wednesday and this is something that will be monitored closely.
I will be monitoring Invest 98L very closely and will have an updated discussion sometime on Saturday.
Invest 98L, which is a broad and large area of low pressure was located about 60 miles to the northwest of Saint Lucia this morning. Tropical storm force winds with gusts to 50 mph have been reported on the island of Barbados this morning and tropical storm conditions are likely today through tonight from Barbados to Saint Vincent and Saint Lucia northward through Guadeloupe, Barbuda and Antigua. Even though there are no tropical storm warnings in effect, please treat this as a tropical storm and expect tropical storm winds with gusts to 60 mph, heavy rainfall with flash flooding and sea heights of up to 12 to 16 feet.
On Saturday, this system which I think by that time will be named Tropical Storm Rafael will track northwestward over the eastern Caribbean and tropical storm conditions will continue to impact much of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday with tropical storm conditions spreading across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by early Saturday morning and continuing throughout Saturday and likely right into Sunday. So, for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, expect tropical storm force winds with gusts to 60 to 70 mph, heavy rainfall with flash flooding and sea heights of up to 15 feet.
I do think that the center of Rafael will track right over Puerto Rico by early Sunday morning and then track slowly northwestward and northward from there. The weather is likely not to improve for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles until Monday.
So, bottom line is that all of the Lesser Antilles will be raked pretty hard by Invest 98L/Rafael from today to possibly Monday morning and that Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will also be raked pretty hard from Saturday to Monday morning.
Finally, this system may end up impacting Bermuda as a hurricane right around Tuesday into Wednesday and this is something that will be monitored closely.
I will be monitoring Invest 98L very closely and will have an updated discussion sometime on Saturday.
0 likes
Too many hurricanes to remember
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139603
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L: Preparations/Observations in E Caribbean
Discussion by Rob of Crownweather.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
Invest 98L Likely To Become Tropical Storm Rafael By Later Today Or Saturday; Tropical Storm Conditions Will Impact Much Of The Lesser Antilles From Today Through This Weekend; Tropical Storm Conditions Expected For Puerto Rico & The Virgin Islands From Saturday Morning To Monday Morning
Friday, October 12, 2012 8:35 am
by Rob Lightbown
Invest 98L, which is a broad and large area of low pressure was located about 60 miles to the northwest of Saint Lucia this morning. Tropical storm force winds with gusts to 50 mph have been reported on the island of Barbados this morning and tropical storm conditions are likely today through tonight from Barbados to Saint Vincent and Saint Lucia northward through Guadeloupe, Barbuda and Antigua. Even though there are no tropical storm warnings in effect, please treat this as a tropical storm and expect tropical storm winds with gusts to 60 mph, heavy rainfall with flash flooding and sea heights of up to 12 to 16 feet.
On Saturday, this system which I think by that time will be named Tropical Storm Rafael will track northwestward over the eastern Caribbean and tropical storm conditions will continue to impact much of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday with tropical storm conditions spreading across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by early Saturday morning and continuing throughout Saturday and likely right into Sunday. So, for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, expect tropical storm force winds with gusts to 60 to 70 mph, heavy rainfall with flash flooding and sea heights of up to 15 feet.
I do think that the center of Rafael will track right over Puerto Rico by early Sunday morning and then track slowly northwestward and northward from there. The weather is likely not to improve for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles until Monday.
So, bottom line is that all of the Lesser Antilles will be raked pretty hard by Invest 98L/Rafael from today to possibly Monday morning and that Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will also be raked pretty hard from Saturday to Monday morning.
Finally, this system may end up impacting Bermuda as a hurricane right around Tuesday into Wednesday and this is something that will be monitored closely.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
Invest 98L Likely To Become Tropical Storm Rafael By Later Today Or Saturday; Tropical Storm Conditions Will Impact Much Of The Lesser Antilles From Today Through This Weekend; Tropical Storm Conditions Expected For Puerto Rico & The Virgin Islands From Saturday Morning To Monday Morning
Friday, October 12, 2012 8:35 am
by Rob Lightbown
Invest 98L, which is a broad and large area of low pressure was located about 60 miles to the northwest of Saint Lucia this morning. Tropical storm force winds with gusts to 50 mph have been reported on the island of Barbados this morning and tropical storm conditions are likely today through tonight from Barbados to Saint Vincent and Saint Lucia northward through Guadeloupe, Barbuda and Antigua. Even though there are no tropical storm warnings in effect, please treat this as a tropical storm and expect tropical storm winds with gusts to 60 mph, heavy rainfall with flash flooding and sea heights of up to 12 to 16 feet.
On Saturday, this system which I think by that time will be named Tropical Storm Rafael will track northwestward over the eastern Caribbean and tropical storm conditions will continue to impact much of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday with tropical storm conditions spreading across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by early Saturday morning and continuing throughout Saturday and likely right into Sunday. So, for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, expect tropical storm force winds with gusts to 60 to 70 mph, heavy rainfall with flash flooding and sea heights of up to 15 feet.
I do think that the center of Rafael will track right over Puerto Rico by early Sunday morning and then track slowly northwestward and northward from there. The weather is likely not to improve for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles until Monday.
So, bottom line is that all of the Lesser Antilles will be raked pretty hard by Invest 98L/Rafael from today to possibly Monday morning and that Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will also be raked pretty hard from Saturday to Monday morning.
Finally, this system may end up impacting Bermuda as a hurricane right around Tuesday into Wednesday and this is something that will be monitored closely.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L: Preparations/Observations in E Caribbean
stormcarib.com report from Anguilla:
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL?
From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos at anguillanet.com>
Date: Fri, 12 Oct 2012 10:02:04 -0400
A low pressure system about 360 miles to our SE (moving NW at 10 -15 mph) is showing some signs of development and will probably become a TD or TS sometime today/tonight. All models (see fig. #1 below) forecast the system to pass over or very close to AXA Sat./early Sunday. Barbados and Dominica are already reporting gusty winds and moderate/heavy rain bands. I expect TD/TS warnings may be posted for AXA by Sat. Wind Guru is forecasting seas from the SE of 13 feet – I think a bit high because weather buoys near the storm are showing seas of only 8 ft. But based on current satellite (see fig. #2 below), heavy rain bands to the east of the low and the NW movement, doubtful the system will pass us by.
So for us, starting early Sat. thru Sunday, I would expect gusty winds in the mid-30 knot range (higher in gusts), moderate to heavy rain showers and swells on the southern/SE facing beaches in the 8 – 10 ft, range. Probably TS warning by Sat. As always, this could all change and if it does, I will advise. Time to find a good book!
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL?
From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos at anguillanet.com>
Date: Fri, 12 Oct 2012 10:02:04 -0400
A low pressure system about 360 miles to our SE (moving NW at 10 -15 mph) is showing some signs of development and will probably become a TD or TS sometime today/tonight. All models (see fig. #1 below) forecast the system to pass over or very close to AXA Sat./early Sunday. Barbados and Dominica are already reporting gusty winds and moderate/heavy rain bands. I expect TD/TS warnings may be posted for AXA by Sat. Wind Guru is forecasting seas from the SE of 13 feet – I think a bit high because weather buoys near the storm are showing seas of only 8 ft. But based on current satellite (see fig. #2 below), heavy rain bands to the east of the low and the NW movement, doubtful the system will pass us by.
So for us, starting early Sat. thru Sunday, I would expect gusty winds in the mid-30 knot range (higher in gusts), moderate to heavy rain showers and swells on the southern/SE facing beaches in the 8 – 10 ft, range. Probably TS warning by Sat. As always, this could all change and if it does, I will advise. Time to find a good book!
0 likes
Too many hurricanes to remember
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L: Preparations/Observations in E Caribbean
Usually I am just an observer to your "expert" conversations, but I do have a question. The following was posted on the Discussion thread:
cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Still no well-defined LLC. I can identify a broad and very weak circulation near 13.5N/61.7W (red crosshairs below). Winds very light across the islands. Recon won't be of much value if it flew today. I'm sure winds are in the 30kts or so with gusts 45-50 kts in squalls east of the wave axis, but that doesn't make it a TD/TS. And those squalls will be moving across the islands in the coming hours, so we'll have ground-based observations of winds in the squalls shortly. I still think that any development would be more likely late tomorrow or Sunday after it passes PR.
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/98Lb.gif
Two questions. You see the low more south than what NHC says NW of ST Lucia? You still think it will be near or over PR despite the NW movement?
The reason for the discrepancy is that there's very little to identify as an LLC, as it's so poorly-defined. Really, it's just a tropical wave axis. With the SW wind continuing, you might stay west of the squalls, Luis. I think the weak center will track close to PR tomorrow with squalls remaining to the east of any center.
This analysis differs greatly with the last forecast that viewed 98L crossing Puerto Rico. Also, in the spaghetti models in other sites just one forecast follows the Puerto Rico route. Is there any way to know the intensity of what we can expect in Puerto Rico, if any?
cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Still no well-defined LLC. I can identify a broad and very weak circulation near 13.5N/61.7W (red crosshairs below). Winds very light across the islands. Recon won't be of much value if it flew today. I'm sure winds are in the 30kts or so with gusts 45-50 kts in squalls east of the wave axis, but that doesn't make it a TD/TS. And those squalls will be moving across the islands in the coming hours, so we'll have ground-based observations of winds in the squalls shortly. I still think that any development would be more likely late tomorrow or Sunday after it passes PR.
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/98Lb.gif
Two questions. You see the low more south than what NHC says NW of ST Lucia? You still think it will be near or over PR despite the NW movement?
The reason for the discrepancy is that there's very little to identify as an LLC, as it's so poorly-defined. Really, it's just a tropical wave axis. With the SW wind continuing, you might stay west of the squalls, Luis. I think the weak center will track close to PR tomorrow with squalls remaining to the east of any center.
This analysis differs greatly with the last forecast that viewed 98L crossing Puerto Rico. Also, in the spaghetti models in other sites just one forecast follows the Puerto Rico route. Is there any way to know the intensity of what we can expect in Puerto Rico, if any?
0 likes
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: rwfromkansas and 52 guests