ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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meriland23
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#841 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:52 pm

Notice it is moving due west between hr 48-69
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floridasun78
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#842 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:54 pm

meriland23 wrote:GFS 00z 69hr

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high look strong to north at 69 hour
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#843 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:55 pm

GFS 00z 84hr

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#844 Postby tailgater » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:56 pm

still has a trough over the east coast protecting us, should start bending right. Probably a fish but close to the Islands
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#845 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:59 pm

If this is similar to 18z, should start bending at about 170 hr
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#846 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:59 pm

tailgater wrote:still has a trough over the east coast protecting us, should start bending right. Probably a fish but close to the Islands

that too early to say
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#847 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:00 pm

GFS 00Z 99hr

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#848 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:02 pm

That trough is just sitting there. Is it weakening and lifting out though at 99 hrs? The ridge seems pretty stubborn but I may not be looking at this correctly.
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#849 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:05 pm

GFS 00Z 114 HR

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#850 Postby tailgater » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:06 pm

111hrs. and it's still stuck on 20W
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#851 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:07 pm

tailgater wrote:111hrs. and it's still stuck on 20W


I think you meant 20N
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#852 Postby blp » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:09 pm

The high looks stronger on this run.

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#853 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:10 pm

This is the 18z run image for hour 120.. which is the same time as 00zs 114hr image (above).. you can see the difference Image

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#854 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:11 pm

GFS 00Z 126 HR

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#855 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:13 pm

Seems to be quite a difference in the scope of that High pressure between 114 hours and 126 hours. Is the GFS right or is it simply under-doing ridge strength beyond 120 hrs?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#856 Postby tailgater » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:14 pm

GFS 138 out, a little different look from what Meriland is posting.
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#857 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:16 pm

GFS 00Z 144 HR

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#858 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:18 pm

I may not even pay ANY attention to the GFS

The GFS is being changed at 12Z tomorrow. Ran on the super computer with a few minor tweaks. It seems that the new GFS has an open wave, at least as of 18Z

of course, it is possible that the new GFS is a load of dung

Here are a couple of images from the new GFS

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

shows a MUCH faster track and an open wave
Last edited by Alyono on Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#859 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:19 pm

GFS 00Z 156 HR

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#860 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:20 pm

The ridge seems to be building a bit over Dorian at 144 but I could be misinterpreting it though
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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