ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Trader Ron]

I am almost starting to think that the MDR is going to be close for business this season as well, if this stable air keeps dominating it like it has so far this season and the last few seasons.
A storm would have to track far south like Chantal did or gain some more latitude towards the NW Atlantic to get away from the sea dessert.

NDG,
I agree with you 100%. It will be interesting what CSU has to say on Friday, August 2.

[cycloneye]

I am almost starting to think that the MDR is going to be close for business this season as well, if this stable air keeps dominating it like it has so far this season and the last few seasons.
A storm would have to track far south like Chantal did or gain some more latitude towards the NW Atlantic to get away from the sea dessert.

You already throwed the towel without waiting for the wet MJO pulse that arrives in two weeks? But,we are going off-topic so Talking Tropics forum is the place to talk about the season in general.

[Stormlover2012]

It's not even August yet lol!!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Count me in as well. August might have a short period in the back half of the month where one or two storms get going but then will be into September and troughs and fronts will be increasing by number. Already they are every 7-10 days on a regular basis. Our nws office says another east coast upper level trough is forecast to develop mid later part of next week once again. Shear, shear, and more shear and continued hostile conditions. Sorry to get off topic here, will carry this over to the other board.

[Alyono]

I am almost starting to think that the MDR is going to be close for business this season as well, if this stable air keeps dominating it like it has so far this season and the last few seasons.
A storm would have to track far south like Chantal did or gain some more latitude towards the NW Atlantic to get away from the sea dessert.

IT IS JULY

[cycloneye]

Those members who may want to discuss about the rest of the 2013 North Atlantic season can visit a new thread with that topic. Go here

[beoumont]

Count me in as well. August might have a short period in the back half of the month where one or two storms get going but then will be into September and troughs and fronts will be increasing by number. Already they are every 7-10 days on a regular basis. Our nws office says another east coast upper level trough is forecast to develop mid later part of next week once again. Shear, shear, and more shear and continued hostile conditions. .

Is it not a general observation of meteorological patterns that the long wave position, on the average, changes every 7-10 days?

Half empty? Half full?

[floridasun78]

00
NOUS42 KNHC 271558
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 27 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-057

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 28/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0104A DORIAN
C. 28/1600Z
D. 19.9N 61.4W
E. 28/1630Z TO 28/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 29/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0204A DORIAN
C. 29/0230Z
D. 20.4N 65.0W
E. 29/0300Z TO 29/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITS INTEGRITY.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
ECD

[cycloneye]

Here is Saturdays TCPOD. It depends if NHC continues doing advisories by Sunday if recon departs at 12:00 PM.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 27 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JULY 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-057

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 28/1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0104A DORIAN
       C. 28/1600Z
       D. 19.9N 61.4W
       E. 28/1630Z TO 28/2030Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 29/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 0204A DORIAN
       C. 29/0230Z
       D. 20.4N 65.0W
       E. 29/0300Z TO 29/0700Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:  CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
       WHILE SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITS INTEGRITY.

[psyclone]

Just because NHC is operationally carrying this as a TS, does not make it a TS.

Dorian does not meet the requirements to be a TS right now

I concur. Alternatively, in the spirit of inverting, one should ask... would the NHC upgrade this system to a TS right now were it a disturbance? they carry zombie storms for awhile in the interest of continuity.

[HURAKAN]

poof

[drezee]

I'm back from hibernation...Wxman57....I believe a visit from Bones is in order...looks like a wave now...no inflow or convection

[psyclone]

I am almost starting to think that the MDR is going to be close for business this season as well, if this stable air keeps dominating it like it has so far this season and the last few seasons.
A storm would have to track far south like Chantal did or gain some more latitude towards the NW Atlantic to get away from the sea dessert.

July is hostile sledding for TC's in the Atlantic basin. it is not uncommon to have no storms in july. actually our basin is really marginal for cyclone activity with a brief spike at the heart of the season. each year I cut our season in half and effectively toss June, July and November. Storms in those months tend to be few and of low quality. Real hurricane season starts august 1 IMO. that is when the frequency of storms starts ramping up. Even so, that ramp up is from a very low baseline so a quiet first third of August isn't a shocker either. It is way too soon to make any judgment on this season since the real season hasn't started yet. If you're going to get slammed...the chances are overwhelming it happens in the August-October timeframe. June and July deliver appetizers (if anything)...the meat of the season is close (but not here yet)...but the charcoal is on. I think this year we'll see some significant MDR action but Dorian clearly ain't it...like Chantal, he was way before his time.

[SapphireSea]

I am almost starting to think that the MDR is going to be close for business this season as well, if this stable air keeps dominating it like it has so far this season and the last few seasons.
A storm would have to track far south like Chantal did or gain some more latitude towards the NW Atlantic to get away from the sea dessert.

July is hostile sledding for TC's in the Atlantic basin. it is not uncommon to have no storms in july. actually our basin is really marginal for cyclone activity with a brief spike at the heart of the season. each year I cut our season in half and effectively toss June, July and November. Storms in those months tend to be few and of low quality. Real hurricane season starts august 1 IMO. that is when the frequency of storms starts ramping up. Even so, that ramp up is from a very low baseline so a quiet first third of August isn't a shocker either. It is way too soon to make any judgment on this season since the real season hasn't started yet. If you're going to get slammed...the chances are overwhelming it happens in the August-October timeframe. June and July deliver appetizers (if anything)...the meat of the season is close (but not here yet)...but the charcoal is on. I think this year we'll see some significant MDR action but Dorian clearly ain't it...like Chantal, he was way before his time.

From the way I have been seeing it, the ridges and high pressures in the N. Atlantic that everyone is fearing so much, is causing the hostile conditions in the MDR and Western Sections of the Atlantic. It isn't until the long wave pattern becomes more usual with more weaknesses just before or after Bermuda and in the Central-East CONUS that shear lets up. This is probably almost completely on the border of pseudo science, but the purpose of Cyclones are to displace heat, therefore, if there is little heat or there is no path to which to displace heat to, then the likelihood of cyclogenesis may decrease (not disappear). We have seen cyclogenesis where it was not expected and stronger in the short-term twice. Chantal and Dorian, both developed rather quickly, and vanished as quickly, these storms are forming from pockets of strong instability and lose support of lapse rates shortly after, there is no influx of heat content from the equator across the MDR which occurs when deep layer flow temporarily slowed down by weaknesses in ridging.

IMO, the season will begin in earnest when we see a more typical ridge-weakness pattern. That is not to say that there is <probably> a higher risk of landfall due to stronger ridging.

Remember, the above may border on some pseudo science, and has no official semblance or support. Although i'd love a pro-met to chime in on that analysis, as I have been wrong or half-right before.

[NDG]

We have another thread discussing this subject, but since you guys keep going here, hostility at the MDR has not been because of shear, which is usually present this time of the year, if anything shear has been below average at the MDR most times this season so far, the hostile conditions have been because of the below average instability and not so much because of SAL outbreaks. Most of the deep tropics are below average on instability at the mid levels, thus why ACE in the nothern Hemisphere has been below average so far this summer!!!! Is a fact that tropical systems get disrupted by mid level dry air.

[wxman57]

No way in the world this is a TS. Nothing like this would ever be upgraded to a TD much less a TS. Time to say goodbye to Dorian.

[Fego]

All signs say "Remanent Low" if not just remanent.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk 2

[jlauderdal]

No way in the world this is a TS. Nothing like this would ever be upgraded to a TD much less a TS. Time to say goodbye to Dorian.

time to take it to the woodshead...wxman57 you get the honors so lets see it...happy hunting in august everyone, things will get better..they always do..we go through this every year, couple of early season teasers that rarely goes anywhere and season cancelled, massive frustration, etc...be patient and really your best chance is stuff that develops inside of 50W...sept and all of nov prime for my area, rock and the gang in texas shutdown sooner then nov 1 though


[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[Fego]

All signs say "Remanent Low" if not just remanent.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk 2

[cycloneye]

Downgrade coming at 5 PM.

AL, 04, 2013072718, , BEST, 0, 187N, 536W, 35, 1011, WV