ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:41 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1321 UTC SAT OCT 11 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912014) 20141011 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141011 1200 141012 0000 141012 1200 141013 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 35.4W 14.6N 37.5W 15.0N 39.5W 15.4N 41.4W
BAMD 14.0N 35.4W 15.0N 36.7W 15.8N 38.0W 16.5N 39.3W
BAMM 14.0N 35.4W 14.5N 36.9W 14.9N 38.5W 15.4N 40.2W
LBAR 14.0N 35.4W 14.8N 36.5W 16.0N 37.7W 17.0N 38.8W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141013 1200 141014 1200 141015 1200 141016 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 43.0W 15.8N 45.3W 15.5N 47.4W 15.7N 49.3W
BAMD 16.8N 40.4W 17.1N 42.0W 17.2N 43.1W 17.7N 43.7W
BAMM 15.8N 41.6W 15.9N 43.7W 15.7N 45.3W 15.7N 46.9W
LBAR 17.8N 39.3W 18.6N 38.8W 20.2N 36.8W 22.8N 32.2W
SHIP 33KTS 39KTS 42KTS 41KTS
DSHP 33KTS 39KTS 42KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 35.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 33.9W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 32.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 11, 2014 1:39 pm

18z Models.

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#3 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 12, 2014 1:44 pm

latest Euro run seems to take this, turn it north, and possibly develop it in the NE Atlantic in about 8-10 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#4 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 13, 2014 1:37 pm

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ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 13, 2014 2:23 pm

Euro is starting to show support for at least a depression forming in the next few days as it moves north.

Edit: Please move this to the models thread as that's where I thought it was being posted to. :oops:
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#6 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 13, 2014 2:59 pm

UKMET is developing this. Got to think development chances go up next TWO especially since the EC is showing a depression at least.

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