ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Uh oh hour 240 may not be pretty for South Florida looking at the setup...
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Ridge builds back in...Hello South Florida!!!
Worse is the fact that it's probably going to be an East Coast rider with the trough moving in from the Midwest.
Worse is the fact that it's probably going to be an East Coast rider with the trough moving in from the Midwest.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Wow. 12Z JMA and Euro look identical. Ridge pushes 97L back toward the WNW. Looks like the difference between 0Z and 12Z is the high pressure over the Carolinas (which trapped it over Cuba). This might be a SE Florida landfall or close to it.
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- BensonTCwatcher
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
KWT wrote:Big change aloft on the ECM and this will follow the CMC/GFS in terms of a near due north track till around 32-35N and then out to sea.
Yup, big synoptic difference this run, maybe won't turn by 35N...Looks a lot different
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Eastern Cuba barely does a thing to disrupt this thing and look how strong at 216 hours:
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
And this is why people saying ots before the run is complete should stop
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Michael
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:Uh oh hour 240 may not be pretty for South Florida looking at the setup...
That is for DAMN sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Well looks like I was wrong with the ECM and its straight north track!
Anyway I think most models are in the same ballpark now in terms of the track of West till 75W, then north through either Haiti or Cuba. Past that point, that is when we have the large differences.
Anyway I think most models are in the same ballpark now in terms of the track of West till 75W, then north through either Haiti or Cuba. Past that point, that is when we have the large differences.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- La Sirena
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro 216 hours: turning back WNW/NW:
Surely that turn is fantasy....right? What a crazy track these models got going on lol.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
- TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Yep, Upper Midwest trough couldn't come soon enough on the 12z Euro run.
12z
00z
12z
00z
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Yikes! everyone(including me) was so focused on the East Coast that we forgot about Florida. Even though it's just one run, I can totally see this happening
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
wobbles back right between hours 204 and 216
before it wobbles back left
before it wobbles back left
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
12z Euro @ 240hrs. Man I hope this does not verify!
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Hour 240...OUCH!!!
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Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Not to be flippant or dismissive, but we all know that 10 day bulls-eyes never become realized. Matthew may very well do something similar to the general idea of the Euro but it's always a bit "off" somewhere along the line.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
CrazyC83 wrote:That looks so much like 1950's Hurricane King...
I'm actually thinking more of a Cleo type path
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