ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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mahmoo
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#661 Postby mahmoo » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:17 pm

Blinhart wrote:This could be a multi-billion dollar damaging system, a lot of places here in South Louisiana are still recovering from multiple floods in the past year. Not just August 2016, we had floods around here in May last year, May this year, and some minor flooding just a couple weeks ago. So a lot of places that weren't flood prone will have a chance of being flooded this time.


It's definitely a concern for this area. I posted right after you asking if this storm is going to move through quickly and hopefully not stall or move to slow.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#662 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:19 pm

GFS 18z Image
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#663 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:20 pm

URNT15 KNHC 192214
AF305 01AAA INVEST HDOB 24 20170619
220400 2416N 08929W 9830 00149 9997 +240 +239 355036 037 027 003 00
220430 2416N 08927W 9827 00150 //// +235 //// 358036 037 028 003 01
220500 2416N 08925W 9828 00147 9995 +239 //// 002037 038 028 003 01
220530 2416N 08924W 9826 00150 9995 +243 //// 009032 037 029 002 01
220600 2416N 08922W 9829 00146 9995 +244 +244 025027 030 027 002 03
220630 2416N 08920W 9826 00147 //// +241 //// 035024 026 020 004 05
220700 2415N 08919W 9835 00139 //// +244 //// 046020 023 019 003 01
220730 2414N 08918W 9830 00142 9991 +245 +243 052016 018 014 003 03
220800 2414N 08916W 9830 00142 //// +245 //// 058015 015 011 003 01
220830 2413N 08915W 9831 00140 9990 +244 +243 062012 014 013 002 01
220900 2412N 08914W 9836 00136 9991 +246 +238 074010 011 014 004 00
220930 2412N 08912W 9830 00141 9991 +241 +241 081007 009 008 004 01
221000 2412N 08910W 9834 00140 9991 +252 +231 075008 009 009 002 03
221030 2412N 08909W 9827 00145 9991 +245 +234 048006 007 008 003 03
221100 2412N 08907W 9830 00141 9990 +243 +239 003005 007 007 003 00
221130 2412N 08905W 9828 00144 //// +241 //// 351007 008 010 002 01
221200 2412N 08903W 9835 00136 //// +246 //// 097002 007 006 003 01
221230 2412N 08902W 9826 00151 9997 +250 //// 134007 010 010 004 01
221300 2412N 08900W 9831 00149 9998 +253 +253 134015 017 014 003 01
221330 2412N 08859W 9829 00151 //// +251 //// 135020 022 017 002 05
$$
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#664 Postby mahmoo » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:21 pm

tolakram wrote:I posted precip animations and total precip in the THREE model thread. Doesn't look like it stalls too long but still drops a lot of rain in places.


I found your post ... thank you. Possibly 6" for us ... hmmm.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#665 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:21 pm

Passed thru low center.

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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#666 Postby Blinhart » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:22 pm

mahmoo wrote:
Blinhart wrote:This could be a multi-billion dollar damaging system, a lot of places here in South Louisiana are still recovering from multiple floods in the past year. Not just August 2016, we had floods around here in May last year, May this year, and some minor flooding just a couple weeks ago. So a lot of places that weren't flood prone will have a chance of being flooded this time.


It's definitely a concern for this area. I posted right after you asking if this storm is going to move through quickly and hopefully not stall or move to slow.


Just watched TV-3 and he didn't think it was gonna drop that much rain around here, 2 to 6 inches total, and he doesn't expect a lot of wind. I wish they would not go into so much detail right away when the models are still coming out and just getting the information when it could change a whole lot in the next hour or so, tell people to start getting prepared for potential and not say that we will get this or that until we know much more. He to not even show that much wind in land he said most of the wind would be staying offshore. Not bad mouthing him or anything, just hoping he is correct or he will be getting a lot of heat from people around here.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#667 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:26 pm

URNT15 KNHC 192224
AF305 01AAA INVEST HDOB 25 20170619
221400 2412N 08857W 9830 00152 0002 +249 +249 141026 028 026 002 01
221430 2412N 08855W 9830 00155 0005 +244 +241 147032 033 027 001 01
221500 2412N 08854W 9830 00157 0006 +242 +241 152031 033 023 004 01
221530 2412N 08852W 9829 00160 //// +241 //// 159032 032 026 001 05
221600 2412N 08851W 9837 00155 0012 +243 +242 163028 031 018 004 05
221630 2412N 08851W 9837 00155 0014 +243 +240 169026 027 025 000 01
221700 2410N 08849W 9831 00162 0014 +243 +239 172027 027 025 002 00
221730 2409N 08848W 9831 00163 0016 +244 +236 172027 027 023 003 03
221800 2408N 08848W 9828 00167 0017 +245 +230 171025 027 022 003 00
221830 2407N 08847W 9830 00168 0019 +247 +230 174026 027 020 003 03
221900 2405N 08847W 9826 00172 0019 +250 +226 174025 027 022 001 00
221930 2404N 08847W 9830 00170 0022 +248 +228 177023 025 021 003 00
222000 2402N 08847W 9830 00172 0024 +247 +230 180022 023 021 002 00
222030 2401N 08847W 9830 00172 0025 +245 +231 182021 022 019 003 03
222100 2400N 08847W 9832 00170 0025 +247 +234 181019 020 020 002 03
222130 2358N 08847W 9830 00174 0026 +244 +236 176017 018 013 003 00
222200 2357N 08847W 9828 00175 0026 +244 +237 177015 016 012 003 00
222230 2356N 08848W 9830 00174 0026 +244 +237 179015 015 012 003 00
222300 2354N 08848W 9830 00174 0027 +245 +237 186014 015 010 004 00
222330 2353N 08848W 9827 00177 0027 +245 +235 188013 014 009 004 00
$$
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#668 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:33 pm

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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#669 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:34 pm

I imagine we'll have Cindy before night's end. Recon found a defined and closed low-level circulation, and satellite shows that the multiple vortices--part of a larger cyclonic gyre--have begun to coalesce. The pressure is down to 999mb. We can argue whether its presentation strictly meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, but NHC has named these before: Debby 12, Andrea 13, Colin 16, etc. Might as well be consistent. There is room for PTC Three to intensify to a moderate tropical storm before landfall, but I doubt we'll be dealing with anything stronger. Definitely not a major hurricane like the NAM shows that I've seen floating around social media.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#670 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:36 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:[img]http://i.imgur.com/rd3glnc.gif[/mg]

I marked the center of circulation on the first frame. I found it interesting that the cirrus is starting to expand westward. Now, can some new convection develop near/over the center soon?

yeah only a matter of time.. crazy thing is if this cyclonic loop drops any farther south it will slide under the upper ridge and could have a small window to organize and deepen more..

its not too far away../

Image


It looks to me as if CIMSS isn't totally filtering out the low-level circulation associated with Potential TC 3, which is partially why you see such low shear values to the south of the TC and large shear values to the north. I messed around and attempted a vorticity inversion and re-calculated the shear using a 9-h GFS forecast:



https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/876928895727140864


It shows a different pattern that what the CIMSS analysis is showing. Nonetheless, the TC appears to be on a sharp gradient of vertical wind shear.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#671 Postby jasons » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:38 pm

Deep convection has really died-off during this DMIN, mostly off to the SE now. It will be easier for the center to keep marching WNW/NW, and not get tugged to the east and into the convention (since there isn't much).

Still a lot of dry air to the west, too.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#672 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:39 pm

URNT15 KNHC 192234
AF305 01AAA INVEST HDOB 26 20170619
222400 2351N 08848W 9828 00177 0028 +243 +240 188013 013 010 004 00
222430 2350N 08849W 9831 00175 0029 +240 +239 190013 013 011 004 01
222500 2348N 08849W 9827 00180 0030 +240 +238 192012 013 013 002 03
222530 2347N 08849W 9829 00179 0032 +243 +234 194012 013 014 002 00
222600 2346N 08850W 9831 00180 0034 +244 +234 195013 013 013 001 00
222630 2344N 08850W 9830 00183 0036 +243 +232 196011 013 012 003 00
222700 2343N 08851W 9828 00185 0037 +245 +232 199008 010 010 002 00
222730 2341N 08851W 9828 00184 0037 +247 +233 215006 007 010 003 00
222800 2340N 08851W 9831 00183 0037 +248 +229 217005 006 008 002 03
222830 2338N 08852W 9830 00184 0037 +247 +231 233006 007 010 002 00
222900 2337N 08852W 9831 00181 0037 +250 +231 238004 005 008 003 03
222930 2335N 08853W 9830 00183 0037 +250 +231 275005 006 009 003 00
223000 2334N 08853W 9830 00184 0037 +250 +234 290006 006 007 003 03
223030 2332N 08854W 9830 00183 0038 +250 +236 295007 008 010 003 03
223100 2331N 08855W 9823 00189 0037 +245 +237 312005 008 /// /// 03
223130 2333N 08856W 9833 00180 0036 +245 +238 316002 003 005 005 03
223200 2334N 08857W 9830 00183 0035 +246 +242 327001 003 008 005 03
223230 2335N 08858W 9830 00181 0036 +248 +240 310004 006 008 005 00
223300 2336N 08859W 9826 00186 0035 +249 +236 324008 008 008 003 03
223330 2337N 08900W 9827 00184 0034 +250 +232 320008 009 011 002 00
$$
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#673 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:40 pm

What is the scenario for this to move further west?
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#674 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:40 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/876928895727140864


It shows a different pattern that what the CIMSS analysis is showing. Nonetheless, the TC appears to be on a sharp gradient of vertical wind shear.


That's smart! I might have to play around with removing the system's circulation from the shear as I mess around with NCL and filtering more.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#675 Postby jasons » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:41 pm

psyclone wrote:Claudette (2003) was brought up earlier. This system reminds of a much less sexy (and less memorable) system from 2003...Tropical storm Grace. It'll be interesting to see if it can get it act together. NHC track and watch/warning areas look good as usual. Best of luck to our Cajun friends in their quest to stay dry. Hopefully the flooding is kept to a minimum.


It very well could be. All depends on where the ULL/trough ends-up and if what the relative shear will be over the system as it approaches the coast.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#676 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:46 pm

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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#677 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:46 pm

URNT15 KNHC 192244
AF305 01AAA INVEST HDOB 27 20170619
223400 2338N 08901W 9828 00183 0034 +249 +241 320007 007 010 003 00
223430 2339N 08903W 9828 00180 0033 +249 +241 314007 008 011 004 00
223500 2340N 08904W 9837 00173 0032 +249 +241 309009 010 010 005 00
223530 2341N 08905W 9832 00177 0031 +246 +242 306012 012 015 003 00
223600 2342N 08906W 9823 00183 0030 +245 +236 299012 013 016 002 00
223630 2344N 08907W 9831 00174 0029 +242 +235 295013 014 012 003 00
223700 2345N 08908W 9828 00178 //// +236 //// 290011 012 010 004 05
223730 2346N 08909W 9832 00173 //// +231 //// 311011 012 016 001 01
223800 2347N 08910W 9829 00174 //// +236 //// 310009 012 012 004 01
223830 2348N 08911W 9830 00170 0023 +242 //// 303009 010 007 003 01
223900 2349N 08913W 9829 00172 0023 +246 +242 308015 018 018 001 03
223930 2350N 08914W 9829 00169 0021 +242 //// 310020 021 022 001 05
224000 2351N 08915W 9831 00166 //// +241 //// 306020 021 020 001 01
224030 2352N 08916W 9831 00163 //// +241 //// 309021 023 018 002 01
224100 2353N 08917W 9822 00170 0015 +241 //// 311024 025 021 002 01
224130 2354N 08918W 9832 00158 //// +241 //// 313027 029 025 002 01
224200 2355N 08919W 9832 00156 0009 +243 //// 306027 029 025 003 05
224230 2356N 08917W 9827 00160 0008 +243 //// 295025 026 /// /// 05
224300 2355N 08916W 9835 00157 //// +241 //// 292024 025 /// /// 05
224330 2354N 08914W 9831 00161 //// +241 //// 285018 021 015 002 01
$$
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#678 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:48 pm

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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#679 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:53 pm

jasons wrote:Deep convection has really died-off during this DMIN, mostly off to the SE now. It will be easier for the center to keep marching WNW/NW, and not get tugged to the east and into the convention (since there isn't much).

Still a lot of dry air to the west, too.


That dry air is probably the main reason why there will be less development if it tracks West as shown in previous model solutions.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#680 Postby psyclone » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:56 pm

Interesting to note that there are no flood watches yet west of the New Orleans CWA (might be a timing issue). They do extend from the New Orleans CWA all the way east to cover a good chunk of the Tallahassee CWA. I'd be keeping an eye on statements/possible watches out of Lake Charles/Houston Galveston for some clue as to how far west they think the heavy rain threat will extend.
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