ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[stormhunter7]

Wave Height (WVHT): 15.1 ft

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42099

[drezee]

Last three recon fixes are close to 345 degree trajectory. The turn has begun...

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely see the MLC on long range radar out of Tampa marching off now more NNW to NW and bet dollars to donuts the center is now moving with it if the fix with last pass of Recon is true.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271521
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 37 20180527
151200 2731N 08502W 8427 01486 //// +153 //// 072040 042 035 002 01
151230 2731N 08502W 8427 01486 //// +154 //// 075044 045 035 001 01
151300 2735N 08506W 8436 01480 0010 +157 //// 074045 045 034 003 01
151330 2736N 08508W 8428 01488 0023 +156 //// 069044 046 033 007 01
151400 2737N 08509W 8425 01494 0021 +156 //// 073041 043 033 006 01
151430 2738N 08511W 8426 01494 0028 +155 //// 071045 047 035 006 01
151500 2739N 08512W 8429 01495 0029 +151 //// 066050 051 033 005 01
151530 2741N 08513W 8425 01498 0027 +157 //// 060050 052 033 005 01
151600 2742N 08515W 8439 01482 0028 +153 //// 061049 052 034 007 01
151630 2742N 08515W 8439 01482 0031 +156 //// 062049 050 034 007 01
151700 2744N 08517W 8418 01507 0035 +155 //// 061051 052 032 006 01
151730 2745N 08519W 8434 01493 0038 +156 +156 051048 052 033 008 00
151800 2746N 08520W 8424 01505 0040 +154 +154 048046 048 036 012 00
151830 2747N 08521W 8437 01494 0047 +150 +150 038042 045 035 017 00
151900 2748N 08523W 8416 01518 0049 +145 +145 044041 042 033 017 00
151930 2749N 08524W 8433 01500 0047 +137 +136 040037 040 038 015 00
152000 2751N 08525W 8430 01503 0054 +137 +137 042042 043 037 016 00
152030 2752N 08526W 8421 01514 0052 +144 +144 045042 043 038 017 00
152100 2753N 08528W 8434 01503 0056 +144 +144 038046 047 040 017 00
152130 2754N 08529W 8435 01503 0062 +139 +139 037048 048 037 020 00
$$
;

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like Recon is now finding some 50-55kt winds at flight level well NW of the center in the convection.

[wxman57]

The constant shifting track as seen by the archive loop below, nothing but east shifts since the get-go:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/A ... _with_line

I should have stuck with my first advisory that I issued around 3pm Tuesday, which had Alberto making landfall just west of the "hump" in the FL Panhandle (just east of Panama City). That's where the early GFS ensembles took it.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

That's the 3rd big win for the UKMET in the last 20 months...I wonder what has gone into that model to make it more accurate?

Ukmet nailed it 3 days ago. Amazing

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271531
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 38 20180527
152200 2755N 08530W 8425 01515 0064 +137 +137 036048 048 037 015 00
152230 2756N 08531W 8425 01516 0064 +139 +139 039047 047 037 014 00
152300 2757N 08533W 8427 01515 0066 +139 +139 040045 047 032 013 00
152330 2758N 08534W 8430 01513 0059 +139 +139 039044 046 032 007 00
152400 2759N 08535W 8426 01519 0057 +142 +142 040042 043 030 007 00
152430 2800N 08536W 8433 01515 0060 +141 +140 041043 043 030 011 00
152500 2801N 08538W 8426 01521 0063 +142 +142 037039 042 033 009 00
152530 2802N 08539W 8429 01519 0061 +139 +139 038038 038 032 009 00
152600 2803N 08540W 8428 01521 0061 +138 +138 038038 038 032 009 00
152630 2804N 08541W 8429 01520 0064 +137 +137 039037 037 032 013 00
152700 2805N 08543W 8426 01525 0066 +136 +136 040037 037 032 013 00
152730 2806N 08544W 8432 01522 0064 +136 +135 040036 036 033 013 00
152800 2807N 08545W 8427 01526 0068 +139 +139 041035 035 034 013 00
152830 2809N 08547W 8429 01527 0069 +138 +138 041035 035 032 014 00
152900 2810N 08548W 8428 01528 0069 +135 +135 041034 034 030 013 00
152930 2811N 08549W 8430 01526 0068 +135 +133 042033 034 029 012 00
153000 2812N 08550W 8426 01530 0069 +136 +136 042033 033 029 012 00
153030 2813N 08552W 8431 01524 0070 +135 +133 043031 033 029 009 00
153100 2814N 08553W 8429 01530 0070 +139 +134 044032 032 026 007 00
153130 2815N 08554W 8425 01533 0072 +136 +136 044031 032 027 007 00
$$
;

[WeatherEmperor]

The constant shifting track as seen by the archive loop below, nothing but east shifts since the get-go:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/A ... _with_line

I should have stuck with my first advisory that I issued around 3pm Tuesday, which had Alberto making landfall just west of the "hump" in the FL Panhandle (just east of Panama City). That's where the early GFS ensembles took it.

You still did a great job because you were one of the few calling BS on the west leaning models and saying Alberto would go more east.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TheAustinMan]

Latest rainbow floater loop for Alberto. Models have predicted the movement of the focal point for Alberto well, shifting from east to north to now west as the upper-level flow changes in response to the upper-level trough and cut-off low.

3.02 MB. Generated by myself.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271541
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 39 20180527
153200 2816N 08556W 8428 01533 0069 +141 +134 045031 031 027 002 00
153230 2817N 08557W 8428 01531 0067 +145 +129 046031 031 026 002 00
153300 2817N 08557W 8428 01531 0069 +144 +128 046031 031 025 002 00
153330 2819N 08600W 8432 01531 0072 +140 +126 044029 030 025 002 00
153400 2820N 08601W 8428 01533 0071 +143 +121 048030 031 026 000 00
153430 2821N 08602W 8428 01538 0073 +145 +124 045030 031 024 001 03
153500 2821N 08604W 8428 01538 0075 +145 +127 041029 030 /// /// 03
153530 2820N 08605W 8431 01532 0072 +145 +124 040028 028 026 001 00
153600 2818N 08605W 8424 01537 0071 +144 +121 040028 028 027 001 00
153630 2816N 08605W 8419 01541 0073 +140 +122 037028 028 025 001 00
153700 2814N 08606W 8430 01530 0073 +140 +124 035029 029 027 001 00
153730 2811N 08606W 8429 01531 0071 +144 +122 036029 030 027 001 00
153800 2809N 08606W 8429 01533 0069 +145 +120 037030 031 028 000 00
153830 2807N 08607W 8429 01532 0068 +145 +117 036030 030 026 002 00
153900 2805N 08607W 8429 01530 0069 +145 +122 032029 030 026 001 00
153930 2803N 08608W 8429 01532 0069 +144 +130 029029 030 027 000 00
154000 2800N 08608W 8429 01533 0069 +141 +131 028029 030 026 001 00
154030 2758N 08608W 8429 01532 0069 +140 +131 026028 029 027 000 00
154100 2756N 08609W 8430 01529 0068 +143 +132 025026 027 028 001 00
154130 2754N 08609W 8429 01530 0067 +145 +133 024026 027 028 001 00
$$
;

[bamajammer4eva]

12z GFS

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271551
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 40 20180527
154200 2752N 08609W 8428 01530 0067 +145 +131 024027 027 029 002 00
154230 2749N 08610W 8429 01527 0068 +140 +131 021027 027 027 004 00
154300 2747N 08610W 8428 01529 0069 +139 +129 019026 026 028 004 00
154330 2745N 08610W 8429 01527 0071 +135 //// 017027 027 027 006 01
154400 2743N 08610W 8429 01528 0069 +136 +136 018026 027 029 005 00
154430 2741N 08610W 8428 01529 0071 +137 +137 013025 025 028 006 00
154500 2738N 08610W 8430 01525 0070 +137 //// 008025 026 030 005 01
154530 2736N 08610W 8429 01526 0072 +134 //// 006025 025 033 004 01
154600 2734N 08610W 8429 01527 0075 +134 +134 004024 026 030 007 00
154630 2732N 08610W 8429 01526 0077 +134 +134 003023 023 030 008 00
154700 2730N 08610W 8429 01526 0078 +135 //// 004024 025 030 006 01
154730 2727N 08610W 8429 01526 0076 +136 +136 359023 024 030 005 00
154800 2725N 08610W 8428 01526 0075 +133 //// 002024 024 030 005 01
154830 2723N 08610W 8429 01526 0073 +133 +133 002021 024 029 007 00
154900 2721N 08610W 8429 01525 0075 +131 +131 000022 023 031 008 00
154930 2719N 08610W 8431 01523 0073 +132 +132 357022 023 029 007 00
155000 2716N 08610W 8431 01523 0069 +132 +130 355021 023 028 005 00
155030 2714N 08610W 8429 01525 0068 +135 +128 354020 021 028 005 00
155100 2712N 08610W 8425 01527 0069 +137 +134 349020 022 025 005 00
155130 2710N 08610W 8429 01524 0068 +135 +128 349020 022 025 005 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

Last three recon fixes are close to 345 degree trajectory. The turn has begun...

I'm measuring about 341 degrees at 14 kts over the past 2.5 hrs. Dry air is wrapping around the center, which will make it difficult for Alberto to strengthen.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271601
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 41 20180527
155200 2708N 08609W 8430 01524 0065 +139 +124 343019 020 025 004 00
155230 2705N 08609W 8429 01524 0066 +138 +128 341018 019 023 002 00
155300 2703N 08609W 8429 01526 0065 +138 +133 342018 019 022 001 01
155330 2701N 08609W 8428 01526 0064 +140 +131 341018 019 021 001 00
155400 2659N 08609W 8429 01525 0064 +143 +123 338020 021 024 001 00
155430 2657N 08609W 8430 01525 0066 +142 +120 337018 021 021 000 00
155500 2655N 08609W 8429 01526 0067 +140 +126 340019 020 022 000 00
155530 2653N 08609W 8430 01525 0067 +138 +130 336018 019 021 001 00
155600 2650N 08609W 8428 01526 0067 +139 +128 339017 018 019 001 00
155630 2648N 08609W 8429 01527 0067 +138 +132 333015 017 020 000 00
155700 2646N 08609W 8429 01526 0068 +139 +132 327014 015 019 000 00
155730 2644N 08609W 8429 01528 0069 +136 +128 330013 015 019 000 00
155800 2642N 08609W 8429 01527 0070 +135 +131 321011 012 018 000 00
155830 2640N 08609W 8428 01529 0070 +139 +126 319012 012 019 000 00
155900 2638N 08609W 8430 01528 0071 +140 +121 319013 013 019 000 00
155930 2636N 08609W 8430 01530 0071 +140 +125 322013 014 016 001 00
160000 2634N 08609W 8429 01530 0071 +139 +135 317013 013 018 000 00
160030 2632N 08609W 8429 01531 0071 +139 +133 316012 013 018 000 00
160100 2630N 08610W 8427 01533 0073 +137 //// 320013 014 018 001 01
160130 2627N 08610W 8431 01527 0069 +143 +137 317012 013 015 005 00
$$
;

[drezee]

Last three recon fixes are close to 345 degree trajectory. The turn has begun...

I'm measuring about 341 degrees at 14 kts over the past 2.5 hrs. Dry air is wrapping around the center, which will make it difficult for Alberto to strengthen.

If the HRRR is close to right on the turn...it would time to mix it out over warmer water

[slamdaddy]

On the visible satty, center almost completely exposed...naked boy

[kevin mathis]

On visible satellite, sped up. Looks as if center is quite clearly moving north still at 5 degrees... Looks to me as thunderstorm activity getting blown off gives the appearance its turned...Be careful using radar imagery from 140 NM away it could be deceptive. Line of sight from a radar, that far away, may be up several thousand feet up in altitude. This may then be showing, at least in part, a mid level circulation.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271612
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 42 20180527
160200 2625N 08610W 8425 01533 0070 +139 +136 312011 012 015 000 01
160230 2623N 08610W 8445 01514 0071 +137 +131 315011 013 014 001 01
160300 2621N 08610W 8427 01531 0069 +140 +134 311009 010 015 001 00
160330 2619N 08610W 8430 01528 0067 +143 +134 310008 009 015 000 00
160400 2617N 08610W 8429 01529 0068 +138 +134 298010 010 017 002 01
160430 2615N 08610W 8430 01529 //// +137 //// 294010 010 019 001 01
160500 2613N 08610W 8427 01530 0088 +130 //// 295009 011 025 008 01
160530 2611N 08610W 8429 01529 //// +133 //// 293010 011 023 006 01
160600 2609N 08610W 8429 01529 //// +132 //// 297011 012 018 002 01
160630 2607N 08610W 8429 01529 //// +136 //// 288014 016 019 003 05
160700 2605N 08610W 8426 01536 0070 +143 +136 274015 017 /// /// 05
160730 2605N 08607W 8427 01534 0070 +144 +132 263013 014 /// /// 03
160800 2607N 08606W 8431 01527 0067 +142 +142 258010 012 017 004 01
160830 2608N 08604W 8441 01520 0071 +142 +135 272010 012 021 004 00
160900 2610N 08603W 8440 01519 0071 +141 +134 276010 012 020 006 00
160930 2611N 08602W 8426 01533 0068 +145 +129 280009 010 020 004 00
161000 2612N 08600W 8422 01536 0071 +138 //// 267008 009 024 004 01
161030 2613N 08559W 8431 01526 //// +139 //// 275009 009 020 003 01
161100 2614N 08558W 8433 01525 0073 +138 //// 277010 012 018 004 01
161130 2615N 08557W 8424 01534 0072 +137 //// 282012 013 017 002 01
$$
;

[toad strangler]

So far the FL E coast has been spared with the huge rain staying off shore.