ATL Invest 91L: Models

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#21 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:49 pm

Alyono wrote:
cycloneye wrote:@RyanMaue
Seems the experts that were warning about the GFS "false-alarm" hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico were right. Or, you could have just looked at the answer key. (e.g. ECMWF)


Maue and his horn tooting are getting annoying

How about he explain the clear phantom his favorite EC spewed off of the East Coast


Being married to any model, be it Euro, GFS, UKMET or any other, is hazardous to one's forecasting health. A model consensus, including ensemble members, along with considering each model's strengths, weaknesses, and biases and long term climo, is much better.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#22 Postby Alyono » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:22 pm

EC has a sharper trough at 12Z
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stormlover2013
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#23 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:20 pm

Alyono, what does that mean ?
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#24 Postby mcheer23 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:21 pm

Alyono wrote:EC has a sharper trough at 12Z


Saw that.
EURO also paints 10-12 inches of rain just east of Houston.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#25 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:40 pm

What does it show for Victoria area?? In my opinion the heavier rain will be east of us...
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#26 Postby mcheer23 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:42 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:What does it show for Victoria area?? In my opinion the heavier rain will be east of us...

Just above a inch.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#27 Postby Steve » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:44 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:What does it show for Victoria area?? In my opinion the heavier rain will be east of us...


Here's the link to the QPF which I think is tweaked off the GFS. Lots of 5" along the general coast.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1528918856
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#28 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:45 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:What does it show for Victoria area?? In my opinion the heavier rain will be east of us...


12z Euro Operational run has about 2 inches in Victoria, while the Euro Ensemble has about 3 inches.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#29 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:45 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:What does it show for Victoria area?? In my opinion the heavier rain will be east of us...


The models are loving the area between Houston & Lake Charles for the highest totals unfortunately.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#30 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:50 pm

And the GFS is getting drier and drier... This could be a bust... for south texas
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#31 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:01 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:And the GFS is getting drier and drier... This could be a bust... for south texas


Right in the area that needs the rain the most.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#32 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:03 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
jaguars_22 wrote:And the GFS is getting drier and drier... This could be a bust... for south texas


Right in the area that needs the rain the most.


The GFS has been inconsistent compared to the Euro, which shows widespread beneficial rainfall making it all the way to west Texas. I'm not buying the GFS, which has been keeping most of the heavy rain offshore.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#33 Postby EasyTiger » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:13 pm

Actually the 18Z run of the GFS is showing quite a bit of precipitation for all of south and east Texas. It's also showing it sticking around a little longer than anticipated. Interesting run.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#34 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:00 pm

Nam is interesting
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#35 Postby sphelps8681 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:09 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Nam is interesting


What are you seeing with the NAM? Have not kept up lately.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#36 Postby Steve » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:11 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Nam is interesting


Yeah. The 32 and 12kms wrap up a decent system. Ends with a giant feed off SC and SW LA. Flooding with that scenario for sure.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#37 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:21 pm

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ForexTidbits
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ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#38 Postby ForexTidbits » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:26 pm

00Z NAM showing a organized system heading for Texas. NAM tends to overdue tropical systems and has a tendency to strengthen system that aren't in favorable environments. With that said some organization is possible so will continue to watch.

Image

Image
Last edited by ForexTidbits on Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#39 Postby ForexTidbits » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:52 pm

Massive disagreement in models Today Invest 91L

EURO is showing area of low pressure sticks around TX sending waves of tropical moisture for several days beginning Sunday resulting in massive rainfall statewide.

Image

GFS is showing a Quick round of tropical moisture Sunday and then death ridge builds which results in little rain.

Image

The EURO ensemble members have trended for a very wet pattern.

Image

EURO Rain Projections

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GFS Rain Projections

Image
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#40 Postby Alyono » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:58 pm

GFS has a sharper trough this run with much higher vorticity
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