EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

[TheAustinMan]

It's been quite fun watching the transition in the convective pattern for 07E throughout the day from a mishmash of sprawling rainbands to a pretty coherent CDO going on tonight. Would love to see a clean scatterometer pass and high resolution microwave to see how well the structure is put together internally there.

567KB. Source: Generated myself.

[cycloneye]

That transition of the convective pattern may be caused by the shear going down and now 07E is compacting instead of spreading out.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS basically the same as 18z and brings this to 945 mbar. Track a little more left, however, which could keep it over warm waters for a few more hours.

[Kingarabian]

954mb on the 00z UKMET. Euro basically keeps this at 980mb.

[Kingarabian]

SAB jumps to 3.0:

TXPZ27 KNES 010619
TCSENP

A. 07E (NONAME)

B. 01/0600Z

C. 11.2N

D. 105.3W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED IN PART ON 0416Z METOP-A DATA WHICH SHOWED
AN EXPOSED CENTER TO THE EAST OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS SUGGESTS
AROUND 10 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM. CENTER IS
LESS THAN 1/3 DEGREE INTO THE COLD OVERCAST, WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF
3.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. PT AGREES. MET IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/0416Z 11.2N 105.0W AMSU


...TURK

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FABIO EP072018 07/01/18 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 49 59 69 92 109 120 122 114 102 89 77
V (KT) LAND 35 40 49 59 69 92 109 120 122 114 102 89 77
V (KT) LGEM 35 39 44 50 57 77 102 120 114 98 80 60 42
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 4 4 7 8 2 4 5 3 5 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 4 5 3 10 10 11
SHEAR DIR 24 17 48 28 23 37 353 59 62 43 101 183 221
SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.9 28.5 28.6 28.6 27.9 26.9 26.1 25.7 21.6 22.5
POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 145 144 150 151 151 144 134 126 122 79 88
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 6 5 3 3 1 0
700-500 MB RH 69 71 70 74 74 75 69 70 68 69 64 65 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 21 23 24 30 35 42 46 44 39 36 32
850 MB ENV VOR 45 48 49 54 58 60 61 72 68 46 30 19 6
200 MB DIV 57 38 41 74 88 106 79 106 5 7 7 2 26
700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 0 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 2 7 43
LAND (KM) 801 823 853 888 920 1018 1079 1115 1211 1282 1385 1454 1583
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.9 15.9 17.1 18.4 19.9 21.4
LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.9 107.9 109.0 110.1 112.2 114.1 116.4 119.0 121.5 123.9 126.4 129.0
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 13 14 13 14 14 14
HEAT CONTENT 38 50 48 36 40 19 13 4 1 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 59.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 23. 23. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 6. 12. 17. 28. 38. 37. 31. 26. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 11. 21. 28. 22. 11. 2. -5. -11. -15.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 14. 24. 34. 57. 74. 85. 87. 79. 67. 54. 42.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.4 105.8

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 7.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 7.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.39 3.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 4.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 5.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -4.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.8

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 17.7% 47.2% 31.6% 20.2% 14.8% 36.8% 45.7% 33.1%
Logistic: 21.3% 71.5% 55.8% 41.7% 28.7% 59.0% 59.8% 29.2%
Bayesian: 5.8% 78.1% 59.6% 35.8% 17.9% 82.9% 78.8% 5.1%
Consensus: 14.9% 65.6% 49.0% 32.6% 20.5% 59.5% 61.4% 22.4%
DTOPS: 6.0% 36.0% 22.0% 13.0% 6.0% 50.0% 61.0% 22.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Kingarabian]

Rapid intensification beginning?

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUL 2018 Time : 064540 UTC
Lat : 11:26:59 N Lon : 106:07:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1005.4mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.8 3.8

Center Temp : -75.5C Cloud Region Temp : -74.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Next update, it will be Fabio.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
300 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with
Tropical Depression Seven-E has become better organized, with very
cold cloud tops near and west of the center along with a large area
of outer banding. A recent GMI overpass suggests that the system
has not yet developed a tight inner core. However, the various
satellite intensity estimates are now 35-45 kt. Thus, the cyclone
is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fabio with a possibly conservative
initial intensity of 35 kt.

The initial motion is 285/11. The track guidance is in good
agreement that Fabio should move west-northwestward on the
southwest side of the subtropical ridge for the next several days,
with a turn toward the northwest near the end of the forecast
period. There has been little change in the guidance since the
previous advisory, so the new forecast track is an update of the
previous forecast that lies near or just north of the model
consensus.

Fabio should be over warm water and in an environment of light
vertical wind shear for the next 72 h or so, and steady to rapid
strengthening is expected during that time. There remains some
spread in the guidance, with the HWRF model continuing to show less
intensification than the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM
models. The new intensity forecast will again trend above that of
the previous forecast, with steady strengthening during the first 24
h followed by rapid strengthening from 24-48 h. It should be noted
that the forecast intensities through 72 h are lower than the SHIPS
and LGEM models, and they are in best overall agreement with the
HCCA consensus model. After 72 h, Fabio should move over steadily
decreasing sea surface temperatures and weaken quickly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 11.6N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 12.0N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 12.7N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 13.3N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 14.0N 114.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 15.5N 119.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 21.0N 129.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS down to 950mb in 48 hours:

[Kingarabian]

Cat 5, 918mb bottom at 72 hours.

[cycloneye]

I dont see Fabio climbing in latitude right now if you look at this loop.

[cycloneye]

TXPZ27 KNES 011219
TCSENP

A. 07E (FABIO)

B. 01/1200Z

C. 11.6N

D. 106.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM UNDERGOING SOME DEGREE OF SHEAR FROM THE ENE OR
E SO SHEAR PATTERN WAS USED. LLCC APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED AT LEAST 1/3
DEGREE INTO COLD OVERCAST WHICH RESULTS IN A DT=3.5. MET=2.5. PT=3.0. FT
IS BASED ON PT DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LLCC LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/0905Z 11.5N 106.1W AMSR2


...LEE

[Alyono]

center appears to be quite a bit east of the convection

[cycloneye]

12z Best track up to 45 kts.

EP, 07, 2018070112, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1070W, 45, 1000, TS

[cycloneye]

SHIP goes to upper end cat 4 and the RI 25kt index is at 56%.

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  FABIO       EP072018  07/01/18  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    45    53    64    76    89   117   136   137   127   108    92    72    57
V (KT) LAND       45    53    64    76    89   117   136   137   127   108    92    72    57
V (KT) LGEM       45    54    64    74    86   111   127   125   113    97    74    51    36
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     8     6     8     5     6     8    10     8     8     4     6    10
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1     0     1     2     2     2     0     1     5    11    16    18    10
SHEAR DIR         20    33    22    40    13    12    66    55    41    18   317   271   268
SST (C)         28.3  28.0  28.5  28.8  28.9  28.5  28.1  26.9  27.0  26.2  23.2  23.0  22.7
POT. INT. (KT)   148   145   150   153   154   150   146   134   135   127    96    94    91
200 MB T (C)   -54.3 -53.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1  -0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   0.8   1.0   1.3   1.1   0.8   0.6   0.7
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     8     8     8     8     7     6     5     4     3     1     1
700-500 MB RH     72    71    74    72    74    72    71    69    65    60    56    55    51
MODEL VTX (KT)    21    25    27    30    31    38    44    46    46    41    37    32    27
850 MB ENV VOR    49    50    59    63    62    69    74    87    79    66    49    33    36
200 MB DIV        49    58    95   108   109   106    59   -30   -31    41    28    -4     8
700-850 TADV      -1     0     0    -2    -4    -4    -3     0     0     1     4    29    24
LAND (KM)        841   869   899   944  1001  1101  1134  1238  1326  1428  1488  1586  1742
LAT (DEG N)     11.6  12.0  12.4  12.7  12.9  13.6  14.3  15.0  16.0  17.2  18.8  20.3  21.7
LONG(DEG W)    107.0 108.2 109.3 110.4 111.5 113.6 115.8 118.3 120.9 123.4 125.8 128.3 130.9
STM SPEED (KT)    12    12    11    11    11    11    12    13    14    13    14    14    14
HEAT CONTENT      48    39    33    41    34    15     8     3     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  579  (MEAN=584)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  88.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):           82.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   8.  11.  13.  15.  15.  13.  12.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   5.   5.   5.   6.   6.   7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   6.   7.   8.   8.   8.   6.   6.
  PERSISTENCE            4.   5.   6.   7.   5.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     1.   3.   7.  10.  17.  22.  28.  33.  28.  23.  15.   8.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  RI POTENTIAL           1.   4.   9.  15.  30.  39.  32.  15.   3.  -7. -15. -22.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           8.  19.  31.  44.  72.  91.  92.  82.  63.  47.  27.  12.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   45. LAT, LON:   11.6   107.0

      ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO      07/01/18  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :  107.1     40.5  to  149.3        0.61           8.6
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :   15.0    -22.0  to   44.0        0.56           9.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT)       :    7.2     19.6  to    1.4        0.68           8.9
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   39.0      1.8  to  106.7        0.35           3.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   83.8    -33.0  to  156.2        0.62           7.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   16.4     37.8  to    2.1        0.60           5.7
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   45.0     22.5  to  132.0        0.65           6.1
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :   93.6    721.6  to  -82.5        0.78          -6.3
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    0.0     62.3  to    0.0        1.00           1.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :   -0.9      2.2  to   -1.9        0.75           1.1
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  22% is   3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  56% is   4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  45% is   5.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  40% is   6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  25% is   6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  52% is   7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  55% is   9.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    22.3%   55.6%   45.3%   39.5%   24.5%   51.6%   54.9%   12.0%
    Logistic:    29.0%   68.2%   55.9%   41.5%   22.9%   55.5%   49.6%   14.6%
    Bayesian:    51.1%   88.6%   85.1%   73.6%   49.4%   86.2%   80.7%    0.9%
   Consensus:    34.1%   70.8%   62.1%   51.5%   32.3%   64.4%   61.7%    9.2%
       DTOPS:    31.0%   92.0%   89.0%   74.0%   58.0%   95.0%   73.0%    5.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO      07/01/18  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

                          CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX


[cycloneye]

First visible image.

[cycloneye]

It appears Fabio has taken a more west movement in the past few hours and that should allow for more warm waters ahead in a more extended timeframe.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018

The satellite presentation of Fabio has continued to improve this
morning. A large curved convective band wraps around the the
western and southern portions of the circulation and a CDO feature
appears to be developing. The initial intensity has been increased
to 45 kt, which is based on consensus Dvorak T3.0s from TAFB and
SAB. Environmental conditions consisting of warm water, low
vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere should
allow Fabio to strengthen quite quickly during the next couple of
days. In fact, the SHIPS, LGEM, FSSE, and HFIP Corrected Consensus
models all predict rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 48
hours. The official forecast, while not quite as aggressive as the
SHIPS/LGEM models, does predict rapid strengthening over the next
couple of days and brings Fabio to a 110-kt major hurricane by 48
hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is significantly higher
than the previous advisory during the first 36 to 48 h, but shows a
peak intensity only slightly above the previous forecast. There is
an usually large spread of peak wind speeds from the intensity aids
between 48-72 hours, and the NHC forecast is slightly above the
consensus, close to HCCA, but not as high as the FSSE and SHIPS
models. After 72, Fabio is forecast to move over cooler waters and
into a more stable environment which is likely to result in rapid
weakening.

The initial motion remains 285/11. Fabio is located to the south
of a well-established mid-level ridge that extends westward from
northern Mexico. This ridge should keep the cyclone on a general
west-northwestward heading through much of the forecast period.
The track guidance is in good agreement and the NHC track is near
the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 12.0N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 12.4N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 12.9N 111.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 13.6N 113.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 14.4N 115.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 16.3N 120.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 18.7N 125.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 22.0N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Kingarabian]

It appears Fabio has taken a more west movement in the past few hours and that should allow for more warm waters ahead in a more extended timeframe.

More credence for the UKMET track then.