CPAC: INVEST 92C

All past storm threads will be archived here by year.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

CPAC: INVEST 92C

#1 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:57 pm

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Development, if any, of this system
is expected to be slow to occur during the next several days while
it moves westward at low latitudes.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:58 pm

12z ECMWF develops this quickly but barely.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:00 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902018 07/18/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 38 43 50 54 56 56 55 55 55
V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 38 43 50 54 56 56 55 55 55
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 35 37 40 43 46 47 48 47
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 18 22 21 19 17 17 17 22 23 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 0 -1 -3 -6 0 0 -2 0 1 7
SHEAR DIR 359 14 6 359 14 28 25 14 6 350 331 334 316
SST (C) 28.5 28.3 27.9 28.2 28.5 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 144 147 149 142 144 144 149 147 145 143 137
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 6 7 7
700-500 MB RH 73 75 74 78 79 80 80 81 80 82 80 78 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -38 -36 -33 -27 -25 -11 0 6 10 8 9 -6 -18
200 MB DIV 65 83 87 73 56 55 46 38 9 18 6 16 5
700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 1
LAND (KM) 1909 1997 2097 2171 2243 2355 2459 2566 2693 2571 2331 2062 1781
LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.4 10.1 11.0 11.8
LONG(DEG W) 120.5 122.1 123.5 124.6 125.7 127.3 128.6 129.9 131.5 133.3 135.4 137.7 140.2
STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 12 11 10 7 6 7 8 10 12 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 15 16 22 28 30 29 30 33 40 24 9 8 4

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 18. 25. 29. 31. 31. 30. 30. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 120.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 07/18/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 3.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.7% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 10.4% 32.5% 10.8% 6.6% 2.0% 2.8% 5.0% 29.6%
Bayesian: 1.1% 8.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.9%
Consensus: 3.8% 19.6% 9.8% 2.4% 0.7% 5.7% 1.7% 10.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 07/18/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#4 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:41 pm

SHIPS too bullish there? :uarrow:

I thought the same about Beryl, but it got it right.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:17 pm

:uarrow: Yes. Too much shear. Regardless if this becomes classified or not, this will likely pulsate in convection for the next several days.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#6 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:26 pm

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Yes. Too much shear. Regardless if this becomes classified or not, this will likely pulsate in convection for the next several days.


Modest EPS support @ 12z as well. Probably will look nice for a little bit before it gets sheared off.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:42 pm

Have to say it looks pretty good. Best invest since Fabio?

Image
1 likes   
Image

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:12 pm

A tropical wave is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. This system has become better
organized during the past 24 hours, and further development is
possible during the next several days while it moves quickly
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:11 am

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms centered about 1250 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system continues to
show some signs of organization
, and further development is possible
during the next several days while it moves quickly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Blake keeps the odds low probably because the GFS is not too bullish. Euro makes this a decent TS.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:48 am

A broad area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves quickly westward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:42 pm

A broad area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves quickly westward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:31 pm

Satellite wind data indicate that the broad area of low pressure
located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become less organized since yesterday.
Since the overall environment still appears to be conducive for
development, some gradual organization is possible during the next
few days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:40 pm

Glad to see Eric Blake lowered this. ECMWF barely develops this.
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:55 am

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some slow development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days before upper-level
winds become too strong for development. This system is expected to
move westward at 15 to 20 mph and cross into the Central Pacific
basin late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:53 pm

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with
a broad low pressure area located about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before upper-level winds become too strong for development.
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and cross
into the Central Pacific basin late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


This is actually looking better but this is not forming.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:49 pm

Past couple of MW passes confirm low level banding. Which would mean there's a pretty decent LLC. So unless ASCAT or someone who is a low level visible viewing hawk say else wise, I would say this is close to a TD.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:17 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure are located a little more than 1600 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The shower
activity has become less organized, and the system is heading toward
unfavorable upper-level winds. The low is expected to move westward
at 15 to 20 mph and cross into the Central Pacific basin late this
weekend or early Monday with no significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:47 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become a little better organized
since yesterday. However, the system is already embedded within
unfavorable upper-level winds and additional development appears
unlikely. The low is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and
cross into the Central Pacific basin on late Sunday or early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#19 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:34 pm

Decapitation, but it's putting up a fight:

Image
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:10 pm

Changed to CPAC and the number is 92C.

CP, 92, 2018072218, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1400W, 25, 1008, LO
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Storm Archives”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests