WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Hector Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
700 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018

...HECTOR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A HURRICANE...

Satellite imagery indicates that Hector has been rapidly
intensifying and is now a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of
85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. An updated intensity forecast
will be issued with the 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC) advisory package.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 124.4W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brennan

[hurricanes1234]

Wowwww

This is definitely intensifying fast. The trend of struggling EPAC systems in July has been interrupted, coinciding almost perfectly with the change of calendar months.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018

Well, so much for the shear. Satellite images indicate that Hector
is rapidly intensifying and has recently formed a small eye. The
initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, based on the TAFB Dvorak
estimate. While there still could be some shear over the next day
or so, it seems apparent now that the highest shear should stay
north of the tropical cyclone, leaving Hector in a pocket of lighter
winds. The main inhibiting factor is expected to be more marginal
SSTs, with temperatures below 27C in the path of the hurricane.
The official forecast assumes the current intensification trend
will last for another 12 hours or so, then levels off due to the
more marginal waters, similar to the latest SHIPS/LGEM forecasts.
It is worth noting that the regional hurricane models show an
unrealistic solution of significant weakening in the short term,
and have been disregarded. In the longer range, the upper-level
environment and water temperatures are more than sufficient to
support a major hurricane, and the new forecast reflects these
conditions.

Hector has turned westward and accelerated, now moving 12 kt.
A large subtropical ridge is forecast to build westward over the
next several days, keeping the cyclone on this general course into
the Central Pacific. The ridge could weaken somewhat by day 5,
causing a more west-northwestward motion early next week. Little
change was made to the previous official track forecast, although it
is a shade faster at the end of the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 14.2N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.3N 126.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 14.3N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 14.2N 131.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 13.6N 138.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 13.8N 143.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 14.5N 148.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[hurricanes1234]

"Well, so much for the shear."

That's gotta be one of the iconic discussion lines of 2018.

Also a noticeable break in the shear trend we've been seeing for the past month.

[Ntxw]

Nascent eye?

[Ntxw]

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
Interesting forecast for Hurricane #Hector today. A jet in the 250-400mb layer is pushing the vortex, seen in the sounding below. HWRF and GFS show severe tilting of the vortex & weakening, seen in the cross section below. However, Hector is also developing a resilient inner core

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1025031761825333248




@TropicalTidbits
After tonight, the GFS forecasts a pristine environment to develop for #Hector. Tropical cyclones like moist, quiescent soundings like this one valid Friday night:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1025045475743997952

[Kingarabian]

GFS on its 06 and 12z run shifted north of the islands...

[Alyono]

GFS on its 06 and 12z run shifted north of the islands...

12Z is a Maui County landfall

[Yellow Evan]

Looks better than I thought it would look today.

[Yellow Evan]

6z and 12z GFS

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

At this rate of strengthening, it'll likely be a major hurricane soon.

[Kingarabian]

GFS on its 06 and 12z run shifted north of the islands...

12Z is a Maui County landfall

Looks like the shift north is due to the system being stronger than advertised and feeling that trough in the northern Pacific.

[Kingarabian]

Of course the Euro initializes Hector @ 994mb. Why can't this model ever get initialization correct?

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1025074497274036224

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro is slower than yesterdays 12z run. Could be feeling the trough a little bit more on this run.

[Kingarabian]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1025074497274036224[tweet]

Thank you, for his twitter lol. I'm going to bother him if there's any poor CPHC disco's this year.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro might clear the islands on this run:

[Yellow Evan]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1025074497274036224[tweet]

Thank you, for his twitter lol. I'm going to bother him if there's any poor CPHC disco's this year.

He doesn't work for the CPHC anymore - http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/staff.php

Here's Birchard's twitter: https://twitter.com/bodyboarder22

Trying to see if I can find any CPHC mets.