CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Ntxw]

So both Euro and GFS moves this in a Hector like path. Now question is will it consolidate well and will conditions improve above?

[Yellow Evan]

14/1200 UTC 11.1N 118.2W T1.5/1.5 97E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

A well-defined low pressure system is located just over 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized, and a
tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Wednesday while the
disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Based on the definition of a TD... Since the disturbance is well defined, shouldn't this be classified already?

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET and 12z Euro continue to develop this. UKMET makes it a hurricane entering the CPAC.

[storminabox]

12z UKMET and 12z Euro continue to develop this. UKMET makes it a hurricane entering the CPAC.

If conditions allign, we could be looking at another Hector-like scenario.

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET and 12z Euro continue to develop this. UKMET makes it a hurricane entering the CPAC.

If conditions allign, we could be looking at another Hector-like scenario.

Almost a copy of Hector but this Euro run keeps the TUTT more south and over Hawaii on this run, which would not allow for favorable upper level conditions like Hector had.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS back on board with development. Looks like it'll be a low dipper:

[Kingarabian]

2nd possible Hawaii threat of the season. So far the models indicate that this one will have a more complex steering pattern.

[cycloneye]

90%/100%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A well-defined low pressure system is located about 1050 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Associated thunderstorm activity continues to gradually increase in
organization, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or
Wednesday while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 15/0000Z

C. 11.1N

D. 120.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LESS
THAN 1.25 DFEGREE FROM SMALL COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET =
1.0 AND PT = 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[CyclonicFury]

Now TD 14E

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure area that
the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has acquired enough
organized deep convection for the system to be declared a tropical
depression. Although the convection had waned a little during the
day, recent satellite imagery indicates that convection near the
well-defined center has begun to increase and that outer banding
features in the western semicircle have been improving during the
past few hours. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is 265/12 kt. For the next 72 hours, the
tropical cyclone is forecast to move westward or slightly south of
due west along the southern periphery of a broad deep-layer ridge
that is located to the north of the depression. The ridge is
expected to weaken by 96 hours as a mid-latitude low/trough
currently located off the coast of southern California digs
southward and then westward during the forecast period. This
pattern should allow the cyclone to move west-northward into the
weakness in the ridge and start gaining latitude. For this initial
forecast of the system, the NHC track lies close to a blend of the
consensus track models HCCA and TVCE.

The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain around 10 kt or less
for the next 72 hours or so, with a further decrease on days 4 and 5
when the system moves underneath and/or develops an upper-level
anticyclone, conditions that typically favor significant
intensification. However, since the circulation envelope is
currently elongated northeast-to-southwest, it will take a couple of
days for the system to become more symmetrical, which could then
enhance the strengthening process. By that time, however, sea-
surface temperatures and mid-level humidity values will be marginal
for significant intensification to occur. As a result, only slow but
steady strengthening is indicated in this first intensity forecast,
which closely follows the HCCA intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 10.9N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 10.8N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 10.7N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 10.8N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 11.0N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 12.0N 134.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 15.6N 142.8W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[NotSparta]

Could be another long tracker

Hopefully Hawaii can avoid this one though if it approaches

[Ntxw]

Future Lane. Model watching for Hawaii.

I'm guessing about 20-25 unit system if it goes the northern path.

[Yellow Evan]

I was kinda hoping Lane would be a lame tropical storm in the middle of nowhere to be honest. But this has a great shot at Cat 4 given size, latitude, and upper level environment.

[Ntxw]

Crazy that prior to today GFS didn't do much with this but now it's much stronger on the run. Probably long tracking major that will be around for at least the next week or more being Lane. 0z GFS shifts south for more ACE and skirts by Hawaii similar to Hector.

[Kingarabian]

Probably not a TS yet, but a marked increase in convection overnight:

[Kingarabian]

SAB keeps 14E @ 2.0 due to constraints:

TXPZ25 KNES 150622
TCSENP

A. 14E (NONAME)

B. 15/0600Z

C. 10.8N

D. 121.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.5 IS BASED ON 0.4 CURVED BANDING. THE 0154Z WINDSAT
AND 0250Z SSMIS HELP SUPPORT THIS ASSESSMENT. MET IS 2.0 AND PT IS
2.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN FT TO 0.5 OVER 6HRS

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually getting
better organized with deep convection increasing near the center and
in curved bands over the western semicircle. The initial intensity
remains 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising if the system was a
little stronger.

The depression continues to move just south of due west at about 12
kt. A deep-layer ridge situated to the north of the cyclone should
keep the system moving on a general westward path at about the same
forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, the
models suggest that a mid- to upper-level low will cut off and cause
a break in the ridge. This change in the flow pattern should cause
the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest in the 3- to
5-day time frame. The models have generally shifted slightly to the
left this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that
direction.

The environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to
strengthen during the next several days with the wind shear
expected to remain low, less than 10 kt, mid-level humidities fairly
high, and SSTs marginally warm. The intensity models respond to
these favorable conditions, and all of them now show the system
becoming a hurricane within the next few days. The NHC intensity
forecast follows that theme, and shows a faster rate of
strengthening than the previous forecast. This prediction lies
closest to the HCCA and ICON models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 10.8N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 10.6N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 10.6N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 10.8N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 11.1N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 12.3N 135.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 13.8N 140.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 15.2N 144.1W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi