ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[CyclonicFury]

Models certainly are not bullish on any significant development prior to it reaching the eastern Caribbean next Thu/Fri. The MDR has been quite a hostile environment this season, and I don't see that changing over the coming week.

Not hostile enough to stop the formation of four of the season's five hurricanes!

[GCANE]

In order to deliver the pizza, he is going to have to get past Cousin SAL



Link: https://youtu.be/86fro11GfNU

[Audrey2Katrina]

SAL didn't seem to slow down Florence and it looked more impressive than that at the time. This one has very good organization so far.

[chaser1]

"Kirk to transporter room, who's manning the com? I said inconspicuously approaching the Lesser Antilles.... not conspicuously off the coast of Africa; Sulu, have an away team meet me in the Caribbean"

[chaser1]

SAL is gonna need a "low-rider" to keep up with this one. Organizing by the hour too. This is one incredibly impressive circulation and might be on the verge of being a T.D. now. I'd guess we could see an upgrade by this evening if the organizational trend continues.

[SoupBone]

So far, I don't SAL is a big player with this one. That thing is way down there.

[Hurricaneman]

I think this gets going before the islands and they get a Ts out of this but beyond that is a wildcard, if it goes through the Caribbean it will most likely wait until the Western Caribbean to start intensifying but if it goes north of the islands this could intensify sooner rather than later and as always it could go through the greater Antilles and do nothing but be a wave so while this needs to be watched it’s only a matter of track to determine what the outcome will be

[abajan]

6.3N? Talk about a low rider!

[meriland29]

I am really shocked by how these multiple systems come in such drastic waves (no pun intended) this season. I was almost thinking that after the flux of systems around Florence abd the fact the Atlantic got suddenly very quiet that it wasnt going to ramp up till October. All these systems are super important, and I think 98L and the system developing due east of it are going to be huge deciding factors for the other systems since they kinda meander for weeks.

[Patrick99]

SAL isn't looking quite as brutal as it was 2 days ago. I could see the MDR waking up a bit.

[LarryWx]

For the CONUS, Bahamas, and even the Caribbean to an extent, it would probably be better that this strengthens soon more than the models have it as that would mean imo only a small chance of making it to the Caribbean area. Late Sep history agrees with this though there have been a few exceptions including the TC that formed in the E Atlantic on 9/25/1893 before hitting SC as a big H over 2 weeks later. The greater threat, as suggested at least by the 12Z GFS and ICON, seems to be if this stays weak almost all of the way to the Lesser Antilles.

[meriland29]

Can anyone elaborate for me how the ATL looks atm in terms of sheer, dry air, water temperature, etc? I am curious what the forecast or current map looks like atm to see if the storms are in extremely favorable environment or the opposite...

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located
about 600 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Although the showers and thunderstorms have decreased this
afternoon, this system is still showing signs of organization. The
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow
development, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
low latitudes of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

Well on its way. should be an interesting system to track. possible very long track system.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Well on its way. should be an interesting system to track. possible very long track system.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/api/image?products=G16-ABI-FD-BAND03.100&width=836&height=464&client=RealEarth&background=terrain&labels=line&center=7.874680033319339,-19.758692325767015&zoom=6&timeproduct=G16-ABI-FD-BAND03&timespan=-25t&animate=true&animationspeed=100

She is chomping on that SAL...look at the outflow boundary, and the sand you can see on the visible.

[meriland29]

Well on its way. should be an interesting system to track. possible very long track system.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/api/image?products=G16-ABI-FD-BAND03.100&width=836&height=464&client=RealEarth&background=terrain&labels=line&center=7.874680033319339,-19.758692325767015&zoom=6&timeproduct=G16-ABI-FD-BAND03&timespan=-25t&animate=true&animationspeed=100

She is chomping on that SAL...look at the outflow boundary, and the sand you can see on the visible.

What does that mean?? Just curious...

[wxman57]

Models certainly are not bullish on any significant development prior to it reaching the eastern Caribbean next Thu/Fri. The MDR has been quite a hostile environment this season, and I don't see that changing over the coming week.

Not hostile enough to stop the formation of four of the season's five hurricanes!

And none could survive to significantly impact the eastern Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

57 and the prospects down the road in the caribbean or sw atlantic? GFS seems to think conditions could be a bit more favorable

[Hurricaneman]

57 and the prospects down the road in the caribbean or sw atlantic? GFS seems to think conditions could be a bit more favorable

If it goes over the Greater Antilles it won’t matter as it won’t develop but if it goes north of the islands 70w on westward should be favorable for development and if it goes south of the islands it will likely have more favorable conditions around 80w

[wxman57]

57 and the prospects down the road in the caribbean or sw atlantic? GFS seems to think conditions could be a bit more favorable

If it goes over the Greater Antilles it won’t matter as it won’t develop but if it goes north of the islands 70w on westward should be favorable for development and if it goes south of the islands it will likely have more favorable conditions around 80w

That's true - west to the Caribbean is not a favorable environment. It would need to track north of the Caribbean.