ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4221 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:11 pm

MIchael still alive as a Tropical Storm.

AL, 14, 2018101200, , BEST, 0, 365N, 777W, 45, 988, TS
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1286
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Deltona, Florida

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4222 Postby USTropics » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:12 pm

A lot of these homes I'm seeing on google streets (where there are just slabs left) are one story, wood framed houses. You can see in this video the surge has pushed some of these houses into the main street (there are boats that were carried on top of roofs as well).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh-MPQvM5bI

I've put google maps in the center of where the drone takes off at, you can follow it along the path with google maps. It's quite devastating how many homes have been completely wiped off of their foundations:

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.9521219,-85.4244482,650a,35y,270h/data=!3m1!1e3
1 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1470
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4223 Postby otowntiger » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:21 pm

nascarfan999 wrote:Personally I believe there is strong enough evidence for an upgrade to cat 5 with the most detailed case laid out by one of our pros late last night several pages back. That said, one thing I want to point out is to keep in mind that the destruction several posters today have referred to as their reason for an upgrade is the damage in Mexico Beach. However, I would argue that a lot of the "total destruction" that is there was due to the surge as much if not more than the wind.

Have you seen some of the chaser video? The wind was every bit as destructive as the surge. At 155mph the storm was essentially a giant tornado rolling thru.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4224 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:41 pm

Josh says between Maria and MIchael chases, the ladder one was more violent.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1050561277028982784


3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

nascarfan999
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:36 pm

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4225 Postby nascarfan999 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:08 pm

otowntiger wrote:
nascarfan999 wrote:Personally I believe there is strong enough evidence for an upgrade to cat 5 with the most detailed case laid out by one of our pros late last night several pages back. That said, one thing I want to point out is to keep in mind that the destruction several posters today have referred to as their reason for an upgrade is the damage in Mexico Beach. However, I would argue that a lot of the "total destruction" that is there was due to the surge as much if not more than the wind.

Have you seen some of the chaser video? The wind was every bit as destructive as the surge. At 155mph the storm was essentially a giant tornado rolling thru.


Since you skipped my first sentence, let me reiterate that "Personally I believe there is strong enough evidence for an upgrade to cat 5". I just wanted to remind people that the Mexico Beach damage was aided by the surge.

On that note, I don't know how accurate it is, but Google Earth shows an elevation of much of Mexico Beach between the ocean and Highway 98 as being 10-11 feet. Considering the below picture shows water near some rooflines, I would think that water is 8-10 feet above the ground and thus around 20 feet above sea level. I couldn't find the exact location of the below picture to confirm, so maybe it is a touch lower, but almost every structure looks to be at 7 feet or above (again, based on Google Earth).

 https://twitter.com/paulstorms/status/1050097048689631232




Image
3 likes   

SconnieCane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 120
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4226 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:20 pm

Some of the most dramatic eyewall and damage video I've seen yet. For some reason won't embed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrSMz9DZX8o
8 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 716
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4227 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:42 pm

Satellite/Aerial photos from today of the area
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/mich ... /-85.40288

St. Joseph's Peninsula is no longer a peninsula.

 https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1050578049316610048


Last edited by BobHarlem on Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
6 likes   

DestinHurricane
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 89
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: Destin, Fl

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4228 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:43 pm

Agua wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:Guy who works for my family's painting company genuinely believes "the government is making the hurricanes stronger" More BS than flat earthers.

Let me say I agree, but my mind has wandered back to the time of Katrina.

This was when it was TD 10 - it may have even been *before* it dissapated, then reorganized as TD 10.

There was some poster on here that kept repeating something about it was going to destroy New Orleans and would bring complete destruction. Seems like, and I could be conflating something here, but seems like the poster was suggesting he/she was Russian and that it was being directed by Russia(?). Whoever it was was not offering any meteorological rationale whatsoever. I know that is all nuts, and the poster was banned pretty quickly, but does any one else remember this incident? After the storm, I obviously had many other things to be concerned with, but every once in a while, my mind will go back to that eerie and strangely accurate prediction.

Were the posts deleted?
0 likes   
Irma 2017, Nate 2017, Alberto 2018, Michael 2018


User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2705
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4230 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:29 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
Agua wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:Guy who works for my family's painting company genuinely believes "the government is making the hurricanes stronger" More BS than flat earthers.

Let me say I agree, but my mind has wandered back to the time of Katrina.

This was when it was TD 10 - it may have even been *before* it dissapated, then reorganized as TD 10.

There was some poster on here that kept repeating something about it was going to destroy New Orleans and would bring complete destruction. Seems like, and I could be conflating something here, but seems like the poster was suggesting he/she was Russian and that it was being directed by Russia(?). Whoever it was was not offering any meteorological rationale whatsoever. I know that is all nuts, and the poster was banned pretty quickly, but does any one else remember this incident? After the storm, I obviously had many other things to be concerned with, but every once in a while, my mind will go back to that eerie and strangely accurate prediction.

Were the posts deleted?


Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3288
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4231 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:19 am

afb look homestead afb after andrew (afb mean afbforce base)
1 likes   

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 409
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: Salt Lake City

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4232 Postby Meteorcane » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:53 am

SIAP

NOAA has released their post-storm satellite imagery mosaic, if you want to see the damage imagery stitched together (obviously with mediocre resolution relative to helicopter/drone footage). https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/michael/index.html#19/30.14238/-85.60311

The gradients in damage are pretty striking, resulting first and foremost from where the eyewall impacted for example there is a transition from Cat 1-2 type damage on Panama City beach to Cat 3 damage in Panama City proper. Also you can notice a lot of smaller-scale gradients in damage likely resulting from microscale storm/terrain features (such as mesovorticies), and building construction.

Similar to what we have observed so far from better resolution imagery it looks like Tyndall AFB, and the Callaway area were the most significantly impacted from a pure wind damage standpoint, I would say the damage there is solid Cat.4. I should note it is really tough to assess wind damage in areas east of the center (e.g. Mexico Beach and St.Joe Beach) because of the effects of the surge. However, I would not be surprised if given the convective structure of the eyewall at the time of landfall that locations on the western/northern side of the eyewall experienced similar if not greater winds than areas in the usually favored right-front quadrant received.
4 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 858
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Daleville, AL

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4233 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:26 am

It seems this was all just a poor ignored Michael throwing a temper tantrum! In 2000 he crashed ashore in Newfoundland as a category 1 with 85 mph winds and the NHC called him a wimp (lost tropical characteristics). He's 18 now and got his revenge. I have a suspicion however that he'll still be forbidden from storm name rotation from here on out after this behavior! :grr:

HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2000

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MICHAEL ACQUIRED A FRONTAL
STRUCTURE JUST BEFORE REACHING NEWFOUNDLAND AND IS NO LONGER A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON MICHAEL. THE
FRONTAL CYCLONE REMNANT LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND AND MOVING AT
020/40. THERE WAS A RECENT REPORT OF 70 KT AT AN ELEVATION OF 35
METERS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER BEFORE IT MADE LANDFALL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0030Z 48.5N 56.5W 75 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL...
2 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 858
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Daleville, AL

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4234 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:06 am

Wow i followed the link posted above and cant believe the scenes. Here is Pineapple Willy's which actually looks salvageable and the unfortunate condo I stayed in a few years ago :(

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 409
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: Salt Lake City

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4235 Postby Meteorcane » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:09 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:Wow i followed the link posted above and cant believe the scenes. Here is Pineapple Willy's which actually looks salvageable and the unfortunate condo I stayed in a few years ago :(

https://i.imgur.com/Re6ZPbK.png


Lol nice catch, clearly their image mosaicking technique is not perfect.
1 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14432
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4236 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:56 am

DestinHurricane wrote:
Agua wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:Guy who works for my family's painting company genuinely believes "the government is making the hurricanes stronger" More BS than flat earthers.

Let me say I agree, but my mind has wandered back to the time of Katrina.

This was when it was TD 10 - it may have even been *before* it dissapated, then reorganized as TD 10.

There was some poster on here that kept repeating something about it was going to destroy New Orleans and would bring complete destruction. Seems like, and I could be conflating something here, but seems like the poster was suggesting he/she was Russian and that it was being directed by Russia(?). Whoever it was was not offering any meteorological rationale whatsoever. I know that is all nuts, and the poster was banned pretty quickly, but does any one else remember this incident? After the storm, I obviously had many other things to be concerned with, but every once in a while, my mind will go back to that eerie and strangely accurate prediction.

Were the posts deleted?


Moved, and warnings issued or posters banned.

Let me be perfectly clear, even to those who are just having fun with some of this conspiracy crap. It's a fine line between just mentioning some crazy stupid thing and then enabling other posters to start piling on to the quacked conspiracy theory of the week. There's plenty of other places on the interweb if people feel like it's fun to talk about, but not here.
10 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1286
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Deltona, Florida

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4237 Postby USTropics » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:00 am

Created a 140 frame gif animation from Michael's initiation in the Caribbean through today (large image size ~70mb, in GEO Color):

https://cardse.net/i/2018/10/12/5429d3c93570a2e97a8194bcc60f9ac1.gif
6 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114510
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4238 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:23 am

Sad news to report as the death toll rises to 12.Rest in peace their souls.

 https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1050722797746626560


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

PandaCitrus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 255
Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:44 pm

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4239 Postby PandaCitrus » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:35 am

On that note, I don't know how accurate it is, but Google Earth shows an elevation of much of Mexico Beach between the ocean and Highway 98 as being 10-11 feet. Considering the below picture shows water near some rooflines, I would think that water is 8-10 feet above the ground and thus around 20 feet above sea level. I couldn't find the exact location of the below picture to confirm, so maybe it is a touch lower, but almost every structure looks to be at 7 feet or above (again, based on Google Earth).


You are correct. I went to google earth and compared to the NOAA satellite imagery of the damage posted earlier. All of the homes I see that are now concrete slabs with nothing but foundations were on at least 8 feet elevation. And many of them were higher. 9 feet to 10 feet. Some were 12 feet.

Considering the SLOSH model for Cat 5 maxes out at 20 feet in this area. If the google elevations are accurate, it's possible the surge was approaching 20 feet in certain areas to do this damage.
0 likes   

PandaCitrus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 255
Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:44 pm

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4240 Postby PandaCitrus » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:02 am

Another data point for surge.
On the NOAA damage map, this area is at 19 and 20 feet elevation according to Google Earth. It is further south of Mexico Beach. The homes appear to have wind damage and the Surge appears to have reached US 98 (Elevation 19 and 20 feet) and broken it apart in certain sections.

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/mich ... /-85.39830
0 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests